The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kevin Durant remains doubtful for the Warriors, which means Stephen Curry will once again be a building block for most teams. He’s posted a ridiculous 39.9 percent usage rate with Durant off the floor this season while averaging over 66 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
With numbers like that, his matchup doesn’t really matter, but, for what it’s worth, Curry has a decent one against the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94. This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Warriors, but Curry should be relatively fresh after playing just 27 minutes in a blowout win yesterday. The Warriors’ implied team total of 119.75 points is the top mark on today’s slate.
Values
Ben Simmons will miss today’s contest for the 76ers, which should open the door for T.J. McConnell to play more minutes as the traditional PG. He was outstanding when given minutes last season, averaging over 28.5 DraftKings points when projected for at least 30 minutes of playing time:
McConnell has possibly the top matchup of the day against the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.38. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Tim Frazier is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, which will make him difficult to avoid today given the injury to John Wall. He played 36 minutes while filling in for Wall in his last start, and PGs priced below $4,000 on FanDuel projected for at least 30 minutes have historically crushed:
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder leads the PG position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he remains underpriced at $6,700. His 29.7 percent usage rate ranks 14th in the league this season, and players with comparable usage rates and salaries have historically been excellent values on DraftKings:
Has Russell Westbrook gotten his groove back? He’s gone for at least 60.7 FanDuel points in three straight contests while posting a usage rate of at least 39.5 percent in each of the last two. He gets a matchup today against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. One negative trend working against Westbrook is that today’s game is the second leg of a back-to-back, which is a situation he has somewhat struggled with historically:
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden failed to hit value in his last game, but it had nothing to do with his play. He maintained a strong usage rate of 37.2 percent despite Chris Paul playing 27.5 minutes, thanks in part to head coach Mike D’Antoni staggering the minutes so that both Harden and Paul get to play a solid chunk of minutes each game while the other sits. Still, Harden and Paul played about 20 minutes together last game – and that number likely would’ve been higher had the game not turned into a blowout – and the increased presence of CP3 doesn’t paint a rosy picture for Harden’s fantasy numbers in the long term:
That said, it might be tough to avoid Harden on FanDuel, where his $11,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent; he leads all players with 14 Pro Trends.
Klay Thompson may not see the same bump in usage as Curry with Durant off the floor, but his usage differential of +4.1 percent is the second-largest increase on the team. He’s crushed in the two games he’s played without Durant this season, averaging 45.81 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
The shooting guard spot is absolutely loaded today. Wall is expected to miss roughly two weeks for the Washington Wizards, which means Bradley Beal will be expected to carry the majority of their offense in the interim. Unsurprisingly, he’s seen the biggest boost in usage for the Wizards with Wall off the floor this season:
At just $7,400 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel, he looks like one of the top options on a day filled with potential values.
Value
Marcus Morris will sit out tonight’s contest for the Celtics, which should solidify the minutes for Marcus Smart. Jaylen Brown is also questionable for tonight’s contest, and no one on the Celtics has seen a larger increase in usage with both Brown and Morris off the court than Smart:
Today’s matchup with the Pacers is also a solid pace-up spot for the Celtics, with Indiana currently ranking eighth in pace.
If Nicolas Batum were to sit again, it would be tough to avoid Jeremy Lamb on DraftKings in today’s contest. Lamb has crushed in his last two games and has been awesome in games Batum has been inactive:
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum has been priced down to $6,500 on FanDuel, which is his lowest salary since the 2015-16 season. He’s historically provided excellent value when comparably-priced:
Timothe Luwawu is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and will likely see increased minutes with Simmons sidelined today. He likely won’t do much with those minutes – he’s averaging just 0.63 fantasy points per minute on the season – but a minimum-salaried player projected for more than 20 minutes of court time has value nonetheless.
Small Forward
Stud
All signs are pointing toward Giannis Antetokounmpo playing in today’s game against the Utah Jazz after sitting out on Wednesday with a knee injury. Giannis has seen his salary decrease by $1,200 this month on DraftKings, and his current $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. Still, it’s tough to trust Giannis given what we’ve seen from him recently:
He’s seen his usage decrease by roughly four percent when sharing the court with Eric Bledsoe this season, which has obviously hurt his overall numbers. The Jazz haven’t exactly been the same defensive force this season, ranking just sixth in defensive efficiency, but they’ve still managed to hold opposing SFs to an average Plus/Minus of -0.13 on DraftKings. Giannis still offers as much upside as anyone on today’s slate, but there are likely better spots to invest in for cash games.
Values
Robert Covington has been one of the top beneficiaries with Simmons off the court this season, averaging 40.73 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He has a solid matchup against the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.83 on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Omri Casspi will likely draw another start for Durant today, and he’s averaged 27.45 FanDuel points in his previous two starts. At just $3,300 on FanDuel, that’s more than enough production to justify playing him today against the Pelicans.
Fast Break
While he doesn’t see nearly the same boost in usage as Beal, Otto Porter has still seen a Plus/Minus differential of +4.0 on DraftKings with Wall off the floor this season. The Blazers have been tough on opposing SFs this year, but Porter is likely underpriced at his current salary.
Taurean Prince has been a steady contributor for the Atlanta Hawks this season and has seen his minutes solidified thanks to all the injuries in their frontcourt. He’d likely be a more popular value option on a normal day, but he should have minimal ownership given slate dynamics.
Power Forward
Studs
The Pelicans are squaring off with the Warriors for the second time this season, and both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins smashed for at least 67 DraftKings points in their first matchup. Today’s game should be a high-scoring affair: Both teams rank in the top-seven in pace this season, and the 228-point total is the top mark on the slate by a margin of seven points. As usual with the Warriors, the big question is whether the opposing team can keep this game close. The Pelicans are currently 11.5-point underdogs, but that number has decreased by 1.5 points since opening. Both Davis and Cousins will likely see lower ownership than normal – we currently have each projected for nine to 12 percent ownership on DraftKings – which definitely increases their appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
LaMarcus Aldridge has seen his salary fall to $7,900 on FanDuel, which is one of his lowest salaries since the start of the season. He continues to dominate the usage for the Spurs, leading the team with a usage rate of 28.4 percent, and his average of 21.9 points per game is his highest mark since his last year in Portland.
Value
Dario Saric is another candidate to see increased production with the injury to Simmons. You could make the argument he was underpriced anyway, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.34 on DraftKings over his last 10 games, and the Simmons injury should solidify his minutes and usage rate today against the Magic.
John Collins has posted an average ownership of over 40 percent on DraftKings in each of his last two games, and he appears to be in another good spot today against the Toronto Raptors. Both Luke Babbitt and Mike Muscala have already been ruled out of today’s contest, which means Collins will likely draw another start at the PF position. His current $5,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Derrick Favors should continue to start at center for the Jazz given the injury to Rudy Gobert, and he has an excellent matchup today against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have been killed on the glass this season, owning the worst rebound rate in the league, so it’s no surprise that opposing centers have feasted on them this year:
Draymond Green got the night off yesterday, but he should be fully ready to go for tonight’s contest. He hasn’t really seen an increase in usage with Durant off the floor this season, but he still offers solid potential at his current salaries across the industry.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has struggled to pay off his increased salary recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -6.82 on DraftKings over his last three games. Of course, those games all came with Simmons in the lineup, which won’t be the case today. Embiid has averaged a ridiculous usage rate of 38.2 percent with Simmons off the floor this season and has parlayed that usage into an average of 57.39 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He should have no problem dealing with the interior defense of the Magic, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 113.5 ranks third on today’s slate.
Value
Marcin Gortat has played at least 35 minutes in three straight games, scoring at least 29.75 DraftKings points in all of them. Despite his strong production, his salary has actually decreased by $500 over that time frame, reducing his price tag to a season-low $4,900 for today’s contest with the Portland Trail Blazers. He should also benefit from the Wall injury, with no Wizard owning a higher Plus/Minus differential than Gortat with Wall off the floor this season:
Fast Break
Dwight Howard has been excellent over his last four games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +15.44 on DraftKings over that time frame:
He has a solid matchup today against the Spurs, who have not been the same team defensively this season against opposing centers: Howard’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.88 is one of the top marks on the slate. He’s coming at a significant discount on DraftKings, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Aron Baynes will likely draw the start for Morris today, and he’s yet another minimum-priced option on FanDuel. He has an excellent matchup against the Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.39.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
