The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a massive 14-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Despite the fact that virtually every team in the league is playing tonight, PG is surprisingly thin at the top. Russell Westbrook is coming off one of his best games of the season last time out, recording a 22-point, 16-rebound, 12-assist triple-double. He gets a matchup today with former teammate Kevin Durant and the Golden State Warriors, who were one of the few teams who managed to keep Westbrook in check last season:
Durant is currently questionable for this contest, but he’s expected to play. If that were to change, Steph Curry would instantly become one of the top plays of the day. Curry went for 69.25 DraftKings points in his last start without Durant and has been a usage monster with Durant off the court all season:
Despite the fact that this game features some of the top offensive talent in the league, this could wind up being a more defensive game than expected: Both teams rank in the top six for defensive efficiency this season, and the Vegas total on this game has decreased by three points since opening. Given that this game will likely be one of the most popular of the day for casual fans, some fade consideration may be warranted.
Values
Spencer Dinwiddie has been the man for the Nets since the injury to D’Angelo Russell. He’s played at least 30 minutes in three straight games, scoring at least 35.75 fantasy points in all of them. He remains affordable on DraftKings at $6,300 and has one of the top matchups of the day against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs rank last in the league in defensive efficiency, and Dinwiddie has an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +9.08.
Mario Chalmers should continue to start at PG for the Grizzlies due to the Mike Conley injury. So far this season, Chalmers has averaged just over 31 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Conley off the floor:
He remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe gets a #revengegame against the Phoenix Suns, roughly four weeks after tweeting that he didn’t want to be there and forcing his way out of town. Even without the extra motivation of facing his old team, the Suns are a terrific matchup for PGs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +5.0 for Bledsoe. It’s also one of the top pace-up spots of the day, with the Bucks players owning a pace differential (paceD) of +6.2.
Goran Dragic’s 13 Pro Trends trail only Westbrook’s on FanDuel. Dragic has been priced down to a season-low $6,300 for today’s matchup with the Boston Celtics. Comparably priced PGs with a similar number of Pro Trends have historically provided solid value:
Shooting Guard
Stud
The big decision at SG always comes down to what to do with James Harden. On the surface, this appears to be an excellent spot for him: The Rockets’ implied team total of 118.75 points ranks second on the slate. One thing to be weary of: The Nuggets have been surprisingly tough on opposing SGs this season, with only the Celtics allowing a lower average Plus/Minus:
Harden is obviously as close to matchup proof as it gets, but that’s concerning nonetheless. Harden also saw Chris Paul eat into his workload a bit in his last start against the Grizzlies, and that should only increase as Paul continues to earn more minutes after his injury. So far this season, Harden has seen a usage decrease of 5.4 percent when sharing the court with Paul:
Values
Kris Dunn earned the start last night and played 32 minutes against the Los Angeles Lakers. He has posted one of the higher usage rates on the team since returning from injury and has converted that usage into a strong Plus/Minus over his past 10 games:
He has a tough on-paper matchup against the Jazz, but Utah has not been the same team defensively since the injury to Rudy Gobert, allowing at least 106 points in five of six games.
George Hill has SG eligibility on DraftKings, in addition to PG eligibility across the DFS industry. He’s been playing well of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.49 over his past five games, and he has an excellent matchup today against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are playing at the third-fastest pace in the league this season, which helps explain Hill’s +3.15 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Tyreke Evans has led the Grizzlies in both usage and fantasy production this season with Conley off the court:
He’s failed to return value in each of his past two games, which makes this an intriguing buy-low spot against the defensively challenged Dallas Mavericks.
Devin Booker has a brutal matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks’ long wing defenders, but he offers as much upside as anyone at the position with the exception of Harden. His 12 Pro trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Patrick Beverley remains out for the Los Angeles Clippers, which means Lou Williams should continue to get all the work he can handle. So far this season, Williams has averaged roughly 34 FanDuel points per 36 minutes when playing without Beverley:
Small Forward
Studs
Small Forward is absolutely loaded today, but the battle for the top spot comes down to LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo. With all due respect to the Greek Freak, it’s hard to look past the King today given his elite matchup with the Brooklyn Nets. Brooklyn has been one of the most generous teams in the league in terms of Plus/Minus allowed to the position this season:
LeBron smashed this same Brooklyn team for 70.0 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season, and the Cavaliers’ implied team total of 119.25 points ranks first on today’s slate. He’s not cheap, but his $11,400 salary on DraftKings does come with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, and his ceiling projection leads all players on today’s slate.
For Giannis, his matchup with the Suns is also quite good, although his Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +4.92 is significantly lower than LeBron’s. The big concern for Giannis is just how much of the offense he will continue to cede to Bledose. Giannis has failed to return value in each of his past three games, with his usage decreasing 3.9 percent when sharing the court with Bledsoe:
As Bledsoe continues to earn more minutes for the Bucks – he played a season-high 35 in his last game – that figures to be a big problem as long as Giannis remains priced at his current salary.
Update: Giannis has been ruled out for Wednesday’s game. Analysis:
Value
Allen Crabbe has played at least 30 minutes in five straight games, posting a smash-worthy Plus/Minus of +7.29 on DraftKings. That’s not exactly surprising: He’s been the biggest beneficiary this season with Russell off the court:
Crabbe has an excellent matchup today against the Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.08 and a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. The only real concern is if the Nets can keep this game close, as they’re among the largest underdogs of the day.
Fast Break
Like his teammate Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll has also seen a nice boost in usage when playing without Russell this season. He’ll benefit from the same matchup against the Cavaliers, and combining a few of the cheaper Nets options with LeBron could be a really intriguing game stack.
Taurean Prince is playing heavy minutes for the Atlanta Hawks, yet remains affordable at just $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 85 percent over his past 14 games.
Small Forward is loaded with value plays today. Wilson Chandler is another underpriced option who should see a bigger role for his team given the injury to Paul Millsap. While Kenneth Faried will likely draw the start at PF, Chandler should see more minutes, as he’s played at least 33 in three straight games prior to getting some early rest in a blowout last time out. He’s coming off his highest usage game off the season against the Lakers and should benefit from the Rockets’ up-tempo pace.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis remains too cheap on DraftKings at just $9,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Virtually the only thing that can stop him from hitting value at this salary is an injury, which is unfortunately always on the table for Davis. Still, he’s historically smashed when comparably priced on DraftKings:
His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most among PF-eligible players on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, Blake Griffin is the underpriced stud PF, owning a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He should continue to dominate the usage for the Clippers, given all their injuries. He has an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Hawks on deck: They own fourth-lowest rebound rate in the league this season, which explains Griffin’s +2.40 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Value
The Hawks are down both Luke Babbitt and Mike Muscala for today’s contest, which could open the door for John Collins. So far this season, Collins has played the majority of his minutes at backup center, but this could force him into the rotation at power forward. He’s been extremely productive when on the court, averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play many minutes to pay off his $4,800 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Alrdidge has been extremely reliable for the Spurs this season and is a big reason why they haven’t fallen apart without Kawhi Leonard. He’ll likely need to play big minutes today to combat the size of the New Orleans Pelicans.
Kenneth Faried will likely be a popular option on FanDuel, where he’s currently priced at just $3,300. He managed to score more than 20 FanDuel points in his last game as a starter, despite seeing just 19 minutes of court time.
Center
Stud
Marc Gasol is in an absolute dream spot today against the Dallas Mavericks. He’s owned them in two matchups already this season, and both of those games came with Conley in the lineup:
Gasol has seen a usage rate of 28.4 percent and averaged 46.69 DraftKings points in four games without Conley this season. Many will likely be scared off by the ugly 197.5-point total on this game, but Gasol is one of the top options of the day regardless of position.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein fell back to reality a bit in his last start after back-to-back strong performances against the Portland Trail Blazers. There’s no guarantee he’ll get the minutes in today’s contest against the Lakers, but if he does, he should be able to smash: He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.53 on DraftKings.
Thon Maker has yet to show anything at the NBA level, but he may be forced into big action tonight, given the glut of injuries to Milwaukee’s front court. He’s currently priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings, and big men with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically exceeded value by a comfortable margin:
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins could be a bit overlooked tonight given all the other stars in excellent spots, which increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools. The Spurs have played the same level of defense this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 for Cousins.
Finally, don’t forget about Joel Embiid. His price has come down a bit after skyrocketing following his massive performance against the Lakers, and no one on the slate has been more effective on a per-minute basis this season. He has an exploitable matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.33 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
