The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Thanksgiving is over, and so is Matthew Freedman‘s 11-week streak of writing this breakdown. As if that isn’t enough bad news, eight of the week’s remaining 13 games feature a favorite of a touchdown or more, Robert Woods is out for at least two weeks with a sprained shoulder, and Sunday is looking like a long shot for the likes of Chris Hogan (shoulder), Marshon Lattimore (ankle), and Kelvin Benjamin (knee). Nonetheless, bye weeks are officially behind us, and league parity is at an all-time high with all 32 teams mathematically still in playoff contention. On to Week 12.
Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 11-game DraftKings and 12-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two
Only two receivers are priced at $8,000 or higher on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week:
- Antonio Brown ($9,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel)
- A.J. Green ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Not surprisingly, the top-two receivers in both average DraftKings and FanDuel points per game (PPG) since 2016 sit atop the salary food chain.
But are you a different animal, and the same beast?
Brown and the Steelers play Sunday night, making him ineligible for the DraftKings main slate. It’s a shame, because Heinz-Field Brown is among the most-unstoppable athletes the NFL has ever seen. Nobody in the league has approached his average of 28.04 DraftKings PPG and +8.8 Plus/Minus at home since 2014 (per our Trends tool). Brown should have more than enough chances to ball out, as only three players have more targets inside the 10-yard line and nobody has more targets of 20-plus yards this season. Also bolstering Brown’s stock is the improved play of Ben Roethlisberger ever since his five-interception debacle against the Jaguars:
- Roethlisberger averages Weeks 1-5: 253.8 yards, 6.5 Y/A, 1.2 TDs, 1.4 INTs, 13.9 DraftKings PPG
- Roethlisberger averages Weeks 6-11: 265.6 yards, 8.5 Y/A, 2.0 TDs, 0.6 INTs, 19.2 DraftKings PPG
Big Ben & Co. have certainly benefited from an easier schedule during this recent hot stretch. The combined pass DVOA rank of the former group is 10.8, compared to 19.2 during their past five matchups. The Packers’ 23rd-ranked unit falls firmly in the latter group, and they’re without a player among PFF’s top-75 overall corners. Promising rookie Kevin King (shoulder) and slot corner Morgan Burnett (groin) are both questionable, and the front seven will likely have to make do without Kenny Clark (ankle) and Clay Matthews (groin). The Packers have already allowed 11 receivers to surpass 15 DraftKings points this season, and slowing down the league’s best in his natural habitat won’t be an easy task.
Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Brown with Roethlisberger on Sunday.
The Trials of Adriel Jeremiah Green
Things haven’t been easy for Green this season. The loss of left tackle Andrew Whitworth and right guard Kevin Zeitler has contributed to the league’s least-efficient rushing attack and 10th-worst unit in pass-blocking efficiency. Theoretical field-stretcher/No. 9 overall pick John Ross was a healthy scratch last week, and Tyler Eifert has been out since Week 2. And yet: Green has averaged the seventh-most DraftKings PPG among all receivers this season and has scored a touchdown in six of his past eight games.
Next up is a Browns defense that “held” Green to a 5-63-1 line in Week 4. He got loose for a red-zone touchdown when matched up in the slot against safety Jabrill Peppers, but converted his five targets against Jason McCourty into an underwhelming 3-40-0 line:
In addition to locking down Green, McCourty (PFF’s No. 3 overall CB) has shadowed the likes of DeAndre Hopkins (2-19-1) and Marqise Lee (5-45-0). Green has only spent 10.5 percent of his snaps in the slot this season, meaning he’ll likely be running over 90 percent of his routes against one of the league’s best cornerbacks. Green is obviously more than capable of winning any matchup, but it’s a sneaky-tough spot against a Browns defense that’s allowed a slate-high 3.7 DraftKings points below salary-based expectation to wide receivers over the past calendar year.
Be sure to check out our Ownership dashboard shortly after lock to see if Green’s tough matchup results in reduced ownership at various contest sizes. Analyze each game’s wide receiver/cornerback showdowns using our Matchups Tool.
Fly Patterns
Sammy Watkins ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) and Cooper Kupp ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Watkins will look to break his streak of seven consecutive games without more than five targets with Woods sidelined. Workload is less of a question for Kupp, who has racked up 23 more targets than Watkins this season, and his 16 red-zone targets (!!!) rank fourth in the league. The potential absences of Marshon Lattimore (ankle, questionable), Ken Crawley (ab, questionable) and Kenny Vacarro (groin, questionable) bode well for the league’s No. 2 scoring offense. Both Kupp and Watkins have a top-five Projected Plus/Minus among all receivers in our Pro Models.
Mike Evans ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) and DeSean Jackson ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Evans, a 6’5″ 230 pound freak with 4.5-speed, may be more adept at overcoming lesser quarterbacks than most. He has averaged a 5.4-78.6-0.5 line in 39 career games with Jameis Winston and a 4.6-71.4-0.8 line in 16 games without. Evans had a team-high 10 targets last week, while Jackson saw a season-low three looks. Based on their normal alignment, D-Jax should see plenty of Desmond Trufant, who doesn’t leave the left side of the field and is PFF’s No. 11 overall corner this season. Evans will mostly line up against 5’10” Robert Alford, who ranks outside of the top-50 full-time corners in yards allowed per cover snap this season.
Michael Thomas ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) and Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Thomas has had at least five catches in all but one game this season, but hasn’t been fed the types of fantasy-friendly opportunities we expect from true WR1s. Overall, Thomas’ six red-zone targets are tied with Ginn for the third-most on the team, as Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have combined for 20 red-zone looks through 11 weeks. Still, Thomas historically hasn’t been negatively affected by Drew Brees‘ severe home/away splits, and both receivers have winnable matchups on the outside against Trumaine Johnson (allowing the 10th-most yards per cover snap among full-time corners) and Kayvon Webster (concussion, questionable).
Brandin Cooks ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Danny Amendola ($5,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), and Chris Hogan ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Hogan isn’t expected to play after not practicing Wednesday and Thursday. Cooks and Amendola have posted respective lines of 12/223/1 and 12/102/1 in Hogan’s absence over the past two weeks, with Cooks winning the target battle 20-13. They should each see their fair share of fantasy-friendly opportunities with a slate-high implied total of 32.25 points, as well as the Dolphins’ 29th-ranked defense in DVOA against both WR1s and WR2s.
Doug Baldwin ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Paul Richardson ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), and Tyler Lockett ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Lockett has surpassed 40 receiving yards just once in his past six games, while Richardson has seen just 4.8 targets per game to display his big-play ability. Baldwin has seen an additional 2.4 targets per game since the team’s Week 6 bye, and will face off against slot corner K’Waun Williams, who has allowed a reception every 5.6 cover snaps – the worst mark among 33 full-time nickel backs. The whole offense has a good matchup vs. the 49ers’ 29th-ranked scoring defense that is one of just nine units to allow more than 7.5 yards per pass attempt.
Tyreek Hill ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Hill has displayed severe home/away splits during his short career, racking up 20-plus DraftKings points in six road games compared to just once at Arrowhead. The Bills have allowed at least 34 real points in three consecutive games, although their 31st-ranked defense in rush DVOA deserves more blame than their 13th-ranked secondary in pass DVOA. Hill’s game-changing speed always gives him a chance to take any touch the distance, but he’s yet to be targeted more than eight times in a game this season and will face off against a solid pair of cornerbacks in first-rounder Tre’Davious White and the finally-healthy E.J. Gaines – PFF’s No. 10 and No. 36 overall corners this season, respectively.
DeVante Parker ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), Jarvis Landry ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), and Kenny Stills ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Parker has been targeted at least eight times in each of his six full games this season, but it’s been 16 games (including playoffs) since he last gained more than 90 yards. Landry continues to carry a high weekly floor and has converted a team-high eight targets inside the 10-yard line into a career-high six touchdowns. Jay Cutler‘s potential absence (concussion, questionable) would be great news for Stills, as he’s averaged 0.53 DraftKings points per route run with Matt Moore at quarterback since the beginning of last season – the fourth-highest mark among all quarterback/wide receiver combinations (per PFF’s Scott Barrett).
T.Y. Hilton ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) and Donte Moncrief ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Mr. Boom-Or-Bust himself, Hilton has seven games with fewer than 60 yards and three with at least 150 this season. It’s probably not a coincidence the latter games all took place indoors. Hilton is one of just 11 receivers to average more than 17 DraftKings PPG at home since 2014. Moncrief is 6’2″ 220 pounds with 4.4-speed, but has just two touchdowns this season and hasn’t gained more than 70 receiving yards in a game since 2015. Still, the potential absence of Kamar Aiken (hamstring, questionable), along with a Titans defense that ranks among the bottom-four units in both DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to opposing receiver units, makes Moncrief a potential punt play on DraftKings at the stone-cold minimum.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), Torrey Smith ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel), and Nelson Agholor ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Jeffery is expected to spend the majority of his snaps across from the Bears’ best corner Prince Amukamara, but Jeffery, one of the league’s best contested-catch artists, should have ample opportunities to win that matchup. The former Bears WR has seen at least seven targets in four of his past five games. Smith’s four targets last Sunday were his most since Week 5, but he continued to split snaps with rookie Mack Hollins. Agholor will see plenty of both Cre’Von Leblanc and Bryce Callahan, each of whom has impressed by allowing fewer than 0.9 yards per cover snap this season.
Devin Funchess ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Funchess has averaged an additional 7.5 DraftKings PPG and 3.8 targets in eight career games without Greg Olson, who is expected to make his return Sunday after fracturing his foot in Week 2. Still, the majority of his games with Olson either came as a rookie or with Kelvin Benjamin lined up on the other side of the field, so Funchess could still see plenty of chances against a hobbled Morris Claiborne (foot, questionable). Current forecasts call for winds gusting at 18 miles per hour Sunday, so be sure to follow our industry-leading News Feed to stay updated on all important lineup and weather information.
Michael Crabtree ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) and Amari Cooper ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): The ‘No-Fly Zone’ has hardly limited opposing offenses this season, as the Broncos’ 27th-ranked scoring defense has allowed a league-high 22 passing touchdowns through 11 weeks. Still, Crabtree and Cooper have combined to score one touchdown vs. the Broncos since 2015 while also failing to surpass even 60 receiving yards in a game. Despite their struggles, the Broncos still rank among the top-16 defenses against WR1s and WR2s this season, but they’ve been much less stingy against receiving running backs and tight ends alike.
Rishard Matthews ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) and Corey Davis ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Matthews has managed to improve his average yards per catch and targets from a season ago, but he’s been out-targeted 35-34 in five games with Davis healthy. This season’s fifth-overall pick has yet to clear 50 receiving yards since his return from a hamstring injury in Week 9, although his matchup this week against the Colts’ 27th-ranked defense in pass DVOA is a more reasonable task than the Ravens (No. 2), Bengals (No. 14), and Steelers (No. 5) gauntlet the team just finished. Rashaan Melvin, PFF’s No. 14 overall cornerback, shadowed Brown in Week 10 after spending most of his previous time on the left side of the field – where Matthews has run 45 percent of his routes this season. Davis should see a mix of journeyman Pierre Desir and rookie Quincy Wilson.
Marqise Lee ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), Dede Westbrook ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), and Keelan Cole ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Westbrook and Cole are expected to once again see additional snaps with Allen Hurns (ankle, doubtful) unlikely to suit up. With Lee likely tied up with shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson, Westbrook and Cole should line up against Tramon Williams and Tyrann Mathieu, respectively. Both join Peterson in the sub-1.0 yards allowed per cover snap club, and could be tested less than normal considering the Cardinals have called the fourth-fewest passing plays in the league this season.
Corey Coleman ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Coleman has been fed 24 targets in three games this season, and his 80 yards last week was the second-highest mark posted against the Jaguars. It’s fair to question both the ceiling and floor of the No. 1 receiver in a Browns’ offense implied to score just 15 points, but Coleman should get plenty of chances to ball out before the (alleged) return of Josh Gordon in Week 13. Coleman will take on a tough Bengals secondary that is expected to welcome back both Adam Jones (concussion, probable) and William Jackson III (toe, questionable).
The Model Wide Receivers
There are several wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following three receivers standing out among multiple models:
- Demaryius Thomas ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
- Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
- Julio Jones ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Thomas’ quarterback situation leaves much to be desired, as Paxton Lynch has averaged fewer yards per attempt in his short career than both Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian. Still, Thomas joins Landry, Michael Thomas, and Adam Thielen as the only receivers with at least five receptions in eight-plus games this season. He’s seen an average of eight targets in Lynch’s three games of extended work, and the pair couldn’t ask for a better matchup against the Raiders’ league-worst defense in both overall and pass DVOA. Thomas’ price tag on DraftKings is his lowest in our database stretching back to 2014, and he joins Fitzgerald as the only players priced under $6,500 on DraftKings with a Projected Ceiling of at least 25 points.
Now 34-years young, Fitzgerald still finds himself among the top-five receivers in DraftKings PPG. His salary has dipped back into the $5K range on DraftKings due to a date with a Jaguars defense that ranks atop just about every pass defense metric out there. Still, Fitz finds himself with a few factors working in his favor:
- Home/away splits: Fitzgerald has averaged 17.4 DraftKings PPG and a +3.8 Plus/Minus at home; 14.2 PPG and +0.2 Plus/Minus on the road since 2014.
- Blaine Gabbert: Not typically an upgrade for most receivers, Gabbert has favored short passes to his slot receiver. Jeremy Kerley averaged an additional 4.1 DraftKings PPG with Gabbert under center in San Francisco last season, and Fitzgerald was promptly fed a team-high 10 targets last Sunday.
- (Slightly)-less tough matchup: The Jaguars are fantastic at all three levels of the defense, but slot corner Aaron Colvin has allowed the highest quarterback rating among the team’s full-time corners and is thus the “weak link” between studs Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye.
Only Brown has broke 20 DraftKings points on the Jaguars, and the list of top-performances against the league’s No. 1 defense in pass DVOA is enough to cause doubt among even the most-hard core Fitzgerald truthers. Regardless, he’s the only receiver on the main slate with both a Bargain Rating over 80 percent on DraftKings and a Projected Ceiling/Floor range of at least 25/4.
Mount St. Julio has yet to truly erupt this season – but it’s getting awfully close. Per FantasyLabs’ Justin Bailey, Jones is the only receiver with 70-plus targets who doesn’t have multiple touchdowns through 11 weeks. He ranks among the top-eight receivers in both regular and end-zone target share (PlayerProfiler), while pacing all wide receivers with 2.87 yards per route run. Up next is a Buccaneers group of cornerbacks that should make the mouth water of a 6’3″ 220 pound beast like Jones. Each of Brent Grimes, Robert McClain, and Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring, questionable) stand 5’10” or shorter. Jones has averaged a 6.8-110.6-0.8 line in 10 career games against the Bucs, and his sub-$8K salary seems tame vs. a Buccaneers defense allowing the third-most DraftKings PPG to opposing wide receiver units this season.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 12 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
