The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook failed to reach his salary-based expectation once again in his last game, decreasing his average Plus/Minus to -5.39 on FanDuel over his last 10 games:
FanDuel has lowered his salary to $9,900 for today’s contest against the Pelicans, which looks a bit weird given his sky-high salaries a season ago. This is obviously not the same player with the way the team is constructed this year: Westbrook’s usage rate is down almost 10 percent, he’s averaging less than 20 points per game for the first time since his sophomore season, and he’s assisting on far fewer of his team’s baskets. Today’s matchup against the Pelicans is solid, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.44 for Westbrook, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 107.75 ranks fifth on today’s slate, but it’s hard to trust Westbrook given his play this season.
Damian Lillard leads all PGs with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He’s taking on the Memphis Grizzlies, which is obviously a tough matchup: Memphis is playing at the third-slowest pace this season. Still, Lillard’s 14 Pro Trends is significant: PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically exceeded expectations:
Value
The guy opposite Lillard, Mario Chalmers, is likely the chalk value play of the day at the PG position. He’s started two games in a row in relief of Mike Conley and averaged 25.75 DraftKings points while playing roughly 30 minutes in each. He’s still affordable on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
The Mavericks have been run out of the building in their last two games, which unfortunately seems like it’s going to be an issue for them all season long. That’s certainly a possibility today against the Boston Celtics, but if the game stays competitive Dennis Smith Jr. has a chance to be an excellent value at his current salary. He averaged 39.75 DraftKings points and roughly 33 minutes of playing time in the four games before those two blowouts, and his salary has decreased by $400 over that time frame. The Celtics are obviously a very tough matchup defensively – they rank first in the league in defensive efficiency by a wide margin – but DSJ is just too good of a value at his current salary if he can get 30-plus minutes in this contest.
Rajon Rondo is working his way deeper into the rotation for the New Orleans Pelicans, playing 25 minutes in his most recent game. He should have a lot of assist potential playing with DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis – he averaged a career-high 11.7 assists per game playing next to Cousins in his one year in Sacramento – and he showed slight improvement in his ability as a 3-point shooter in the second half of last season. We’ll see if that lasts.
Shooting Guard
Stud
John Wall is officially questionable for today’s contest after sitting out yesterday, and his absence would officially move Bradley Beal to the top of the SG ranks. So far this season, Beal has been a usage monster with Wall off the court:
He does have a difficult matchup against the long wing defenders of the Milwaukee Bucks, but it’s hard to fade a potential 35 percent usage rate at his current salary regardless of matchup. He’s a stronger value today on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Value
With or without Ricky Rubio in the starting lineup, Donovan Mitchell continues to crush:
He leads the team with a usage rate of 28.2 percent and is playing in the top pace-up spot of the day against the Philadelphia 76ers, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +7.3. His $6,600 salary on FanDuel also comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Tyreke Evans is currently questionable for today’s contest, but he likely deserves some attention if he plays. He’s led the Grizzlies in both usage and fantasy production with Conley off the court this season:
In terms of solely minutes, it’s hard to offer more than what Khris Middleton brings to the table every night. He had played at least 38 minutes in seven straight games prior to getting some early rest in a blowout last time out, and he will likely play heavy minutes again tonight if the game stays close. He has a solid matchup against the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been priced down to $11,500 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. Despite the salary decrease, however, he still might be a bit too expensive given his role in Milwaukee’s offense since the addition of Eric Bledsoe. To be clear, Giannis is still the man in Milwaukee — he’s just been a slightly reduced version of the man since the Bledsoe trade. He’s posted a usage rate of 34.5 percent or less in each of the last four games, and he’s seen a usage decrease of 3.7 percent while sharing the court specifically with Bledsoe:
Giannis still offers immense upside thanks to his prodigious ability in all categories, but he’s likely not going to be as reliable on the offensive end of the court moving forward.
Paul George leads all SF-eligible players with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He has an exploitable matchup today against the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94. George has been extremely consistent from a fantasy perspective since joining the Thunder, exceeding salary-based expectations in 10 of 15 games; no one is projected to play more than his 40.8 minutes on today’s slate.
Value
Stanley Johnson appears to be fully recovered from his injury, evidenced by the 38 minutes he played in last night’s contest. He’ll likely need to spend a similar amount of time on the court today to try and defend LeBron James, which could be valuable for Johnson on the offensive end of the court: The Cavs rank dead last in defensive efficiency and have allowed the highest Plus/Minus to opposing SFs by a substantial margin:
This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Pistons, but the matchup and salary are likely too good to pass up in this spot.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. is currently listed as questionable for today’s game, and his absence would likely result in a larger piece of the offense falling on Courtney Lee. Lee has played well recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.64 on DraftKings over his last 10 games, and he has seen a usage bump of +1.7 percent with THJ off the court this season.
J.J. Redick has SF eligibility on DraftKings in addition to his SG eligibility across the fantasy industry. He’s played huge minutes for the 76ers recently and has parlayed those minutes into an average Plus/Minus of +6.61 over his last 10 games. He has a brutal matchup on paper against the Utah Jazz, but this Jazz defense has been vulnerable since the loss of Rudy Gobert, allowing at least 106 points in four of five contests.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has been priced down to $9,800 on DraftKings for today’s matchup with the Thunder, which is his cheapest salary of the season by a significant margin. Despite the fact he’s already said he’ll play in today’s contest, Davis is dealing with an injury to his right orbital bone, and any time the words “Davis” and “injury” are used in the same sentence we should have caution. That said, assuming he does play and finish today’s game, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he doesn’t return value at his current salary. Davis has averaged 51.8 DraftKings points per game dating back to last season, and, while the Thunder have been elite defensively this season, the one position they’ve managed to struggle with is opposing PFs:
There’s always risk when you roster Davis – yet alone if you roster him while he’s already banged up – but this seems like an excellent spot if you’re willing to take that on.
Value
While Beal will likely garner the majority of the attention if Wall sits, don’t forget about Otto Porter. Porter has averaged roughly 36.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Wall off the floor this season and has increased his usage rate by approximately four percent.
Fast Break
If Hardaway can’t go for the Knicks tonight, the path could be clear for an absolutely massive workload for Kristaps Porzingis. So far this season, he’s averaged a usage rate above 40 percent without THJ:
His price has come back to reality a bit after a scorching start to the season, which would make this the perfect spot to buy back in on him should Hardaway sit.
Derrick Favors demolished the Magic’s interior defense for 47.70 FanDuel points in just 25 minutes on Saturday, and it’s possible he’ll get to face the 76ers minus Joel Embiid tonight, who’s currently questionable with a knee injury. The 76ers were last in the league in defensive efficiency without Embiid last season and are playing at the fourth-fastest pace this season. Embiid sitting would also benefit Dario Saric, who has been priced up by a significant amount after his last start; he would likely see a nice increase in both usage and playing time without Embiid.
Center
Studs
There are tons of elite centers available on tonight’s slate, but Andre Drummond stands out with his elite matchup. He’s facing the Cavaliers, who have been extremely soft on the interior since the injury to Tristan Thompson: Only the Kings have allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to opposing centers on FanDuel this season than the Cavaliers:
Drummond, meanwhile, is off to possibly the best start of his career, averaging career-highs in minutes, rebounds, assists, and free throw percentage. He’s become a player who can hurt you in a variety of different ways on the offensive end of the court.
Marc Gasol has been one of the prime beneficiaries of the Conley injury for the Grizzlies, and, if Evans were to join him on the sidelines tonight, Gasol would likely need to carry a substantial load for the Grizzlies offense. He’s played just 59 total minutes without both of those players this season, but he’s been extremely productive over that limited sample:
He also has an excellent matchup against the Trail Blazers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.78 on FanDuel.
Value
It seems the Kings have decided it’s time to start focusing on the future. Willie Cauley-Stein played at least 30 minutes in each of the last two contests and smashed in both, averaging over 39 DraftKings points per game. He has a difficult matchup today against the Nuggets, who are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, but he may be too good of a bargain to pass up at $4,500 on DraftKings.
Update: Speaking of the Nuggets, Paul Millsap was just ruled out. Here’s our analysis:
In addition to Nikola Jokic, backups Mason Plumlee and Kenneth Faried stand out in our NBA Models with high Projected Plus/Minus marks on both sites.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins has a much tougher matchup than Brow, as he’ll likely draw the interior defense of Steven Adams. Still, this is Boogie: He’s basically as matchup-proof as a player gets. He’s a solid value on DraftKings, where his $10,900 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, and the difficult matchup with Adams will likely decrease his ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Myles Turner broke out in his last game, scoring 49.75 DraftKings points in 32 minutes of playing time. His minutes have been down since returning from a concussion that caused him to miss multiple games, so hopefully that was a step in the right direction for him. He has a solid matchup against the interior defense of the Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
