The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features four games and starts at 6:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry stands out in his own tier at the PG position today: He’s the only PG with a salary above $7,000 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. He has a solid matchup tonight against the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.08 on DraftKings, and the Nets are one of the few teams in the league that are actually playing at a faster pace than the Warriors this season. This is the second leg of a road back-to-back for the Warriors, but Curry has historically done better in those contests than when playing with at least one day of rest:
Curry should also be one of the prime beneficiaries of Kevin Durant missing today’s contest. So far this season, Curry has posted a ridiculous usage rate and averaged over 64 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Durant off the court:
The only real concern here is if the Nets will be able to keep this game close enough for Curry to play full minutes. The Warriors are currently 11-point favorites on the road, which isn’t surprising given that the Nets’ two most-accomplished players will both be watching this game on the sidelines (Jeremy Lin and D’Angelo Russell).
Value
Spencer Dinwiddie has played at least 31.5 minutes in back-to-back games for the Nets, which is unsurprising given all their injuries at the PG position. With both Russell and Lin off the court this season, Dinwiddie has averaged a usage rate above 20 percent and nearly 37 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He’s especially intriguing on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has smashed in two of his last three games, scoring at least 40.5 DraftKings points while playing at least 30 minutes. While those numbers are obviously impressive, there is a big caveat: One of those games came without Gary Harris in the lineup, while the other came in a blowout win. He does have a nice matchup today against the Lakers, who are currently playing at the third-fastest pace in the league, but he probably doesn’t offer as much upside as he’s shown recently.
Ish Smith rarely plays more than 21 minutes, but that hasn’t stopped him from returning value in 92 percent of his last 14 games on FanDuel. He’s productive when he is on the court, averaging 0.99 fantasy points per minute, and his eight Pro Trends trail only Curry’s and Dinwiddie’s among PG-eligible players on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Much of the value with the top SGs on today’s slate can be found on FanDuel, with each of the three highest-priced options owning Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent.
Devin Booker has been scoring the ball well of late, going for at least 30 points in four of his last six games. The usage gap between Booker and T.J. Warren has widened a bit over that stretch, with Booker posting a usage rate of at least 30.6 percent in all four of those contests. That said, he does have a relatively tough matchup today against the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls play at one of the slower paces in the league, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of -5.2 for Booker, and Justin Holiday has graded out as a solid defender by Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) so far this season.
The Warriors’ implied team total of 123 points is the largest on the slate by a margin of almost 10 points, which should put virtually their entire roster in play tonight. That said, Klay Thompson has historically struggled as a large favorite when playing on the road:
Of course, the Durant news makes those concerns pretty moot. Thompson has seen a usage increase of 4.6 percent with Durant off the court this season.
Value
Kris Dunn has seemed to wrestle the majority of the PG minutes away from Jerian Grant, playing at least 26 in each of the last five games. He’s been very productive over that time frame, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.34, and he gets one of the top matchups possible against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are tied with Brooklyn for the fastest pace in the league at the moment, and they’re 29th in defensive efficiency. That combination of fast pace and poor defense results in a juicy Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.12 for Dunn on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Gary Harris returned from injury last game and put up roughly 35 DraftKings points in 30 minutes of playing time. He doesn’t appear to be on any sort of a minutes limit, which likely makes him underpriced across the industry for today’s matchup with the Lakers.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler is SF-eligible on FanDuel and SG-eligible on DraftKings, but wherever you play him he has a solid matchup today against the Detroit Pistons. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.02 is the fourth-best mark among SF-eligible players on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with nine Pro Trends. He’s played much better recently after a shaky start to the season, owning an average Plus/Minus of +7.42 over his last four games.
Value
Andre Iguodala played just 20 minutes in the only other game that Durant missed this season, but that game was a blowout the Warriors won by 24 points. He’ll likely see closer to 30 minutes if this game stays close – which is a big if against the Brooklyn Nets – and he has one of the best matchups of the day with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.72 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Iguodala is the obvious value play at SF, but there are a lot of appealing cheap options at the position today. Stanley Johnson is $300 cheaper than Iggy on FanDuel, and his $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He’s still working his minutes back up after an injury, but he routinely played close to 40 minutes a night early in the season.
No one on the Nets has seen a bigger bump in usage or averaged more fantasy points with Lin and Russell off the court this season than DeMarre Carroll:
He may go a bit overlooked today, but he should have a chance to carry a large portion of the Nets offense in what should be a fast-paced game against the Golden State Warriors.
Power Forward
Studs
Unlike his teammates, Draymond Green doesn’t see nearly the same boost in usage and fantasy production with Durant off the court. That said, he probably doesn’t need a boost today against the Nets, who have been destroyed by opposing big men all season:
He should be an extremely popular option across the industry.
Paul Millsap has really come on recently after a slow start to the season:
The Lakers haven’t been as bad as the Nets have at defending PFs, but they’ve still been quite bad, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.84 for Millsap on today’s slate. He leads all PFs with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Trevor Booker can never be counted on to play big minutes, but the minutes he does play are typically productive. He’s averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute this season, which gives him a low bar to pay off his current $4,800 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma has been a revelation for the Lakers this season, culminating with a 45-point fantasy performance in his last outing. He has a tough matchup today against Millsap and the Nuggets, but it seems clear that he’s going to be a big part of the Lakers’ plans this season. If he’s going to continue to play around 38 minutes a night, he’s a value at his current salary.
T.J. Warren has PF eligibility on DraftKings in addition to his SF eligibility across the industry. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.59 over his last 10 games and has averaged roughly 37.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in games without Eric Bledsoe this season:
The only reason his salary has stayed low is because the Suns have gotten blown out so often this season; he’s averaging only 29.6 minutes per game. His $6,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond continues to dominate on DraftKings, posting a Plus/Minus of +6.06 over his last 10 games. He gets an excellent individual matchup today against Karl-Anthony Towns, who does a lot of things really well but still struggles defensively. Towns ranked dead last among all qualifying centers in DRPM last season, and Drummond has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.21 for today’s matchup.
Nikola Jokic stands out on FanDuel, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. He has a dream matchup against the Lakers, who have been the worst defensive team in the league against opposing centers on FanDuel:
Value
The center position is pretty thin on value options, but one potentially intriguing option could be Robin Lopez. He’s not playing as many minutes as he was to start the season, but he doesn’t need to play a ton to pay off his current salary. If the Suns are without Tyson Chandler, who’s currently questionable with an illness, he’ll have an exploitable matchup against the defensively-challenged duo of Greg Monroe and Alex Len.
Fast Break
Given the Durant news and all the other premier big men in better spots, who is going to pay up for Karl-Anthony Towns today? That alone gives him some appeal for guaranteed prize pools, especially considering his ceiling projection trails only Curry’s and Drummond’s on today’s slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
