Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Likewise, check out our new Correlations page to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Alex Smith ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- Tyreek Hill ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Some pretty stiff statistical tailwinds are pushing Smith into the spotlight as the Chiefs blow into New York to face the Giants, a team which so far this season has allowed the third-most points per game (PPG) to quarterbacks on DraftKings (22.7) while being tied with New England for the league-worst mark (21.2) on FanDuel. This week, Smith is the No. 1 rated quarterback in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Models. Additionally, the Chiefs are slate-high 10.5-point favorites, implied to score 28 points against the Giants. Smith has been solid as a road favorite since 2014, averaging 17.92 PPG with a +2.21 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 17.31 PPG with a +2.54 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. As detailed by Matthew Freedman this week: The Utah Messiah cometh.
Not surprisingly, Tyfreak’s massive upside has been talked up quite a bit this week. Careerwise, on the road, Hill has averaged: 19.23 PPG, and a +8.61 Plus/Minus with 91.7 percent Consistency on DraftKings; and 16.50 PPG and a +7.24 Plus/Minus with 90.9 percent Consistency on FanDuel. Tyfreak is in an absolute smash spot against a Giants team in complete disarray.
Running Back + D/ST
- Todd Gurley ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
- Los Angeles Rams ($2,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Gurley is likely to have lower ownership than other studs this week — we currently have him projected at around 15 percent on both sites — because he’s on the road as a 2.5-point underdog against a punishing Minnesota defense. The Vikings have allowed the fewest points to running backs on FanDuel (15.6) and the second-fewest on DraftKings (18.5). On the bright side, Minnesota has allowed the 10th-most targets (72) and 50 receptions to running backs this season and Gurley has a more than respectable 16.38 percent of the Rams’ target market share over the past four weeks. The Rams offensive line’s 4.63 adjusted line yards (per Football Outsiders) ranks fourth in the league this season and Gurley has our second-highest projected ceiling on both sites, thanks in part, to his nine, count ’em, nine, delicious opportunities inside the 10-yard line during the past four weeks. Even in a tough matchup, the best running back in Los Angeles is firmly in play, especially in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The Rams currently are tied for seventh in the NFL with their 8.0 percent adjusted sack rate. Still, we have them projected for just 1.4 sacks this week against Minnesota’s excellent offensive line which ranks second in the league with their 2.9 percent adjusted sack rate. The Rams have snagged the second-most interceptions in the NFL this season (12); their 4.0 percent interception rate also ranks second. We have the Rams defense projected for sparse ownership on both sites, making this contrarian stack a potential GPP winner.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Kirk Cousins ($6,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- Jamison Crowder ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Vernon Davis ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
- Michael Thomas ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Cousins enters Coors Field of the NFL as a hefty 7.5-point road underdog this week. And for a reason. This Saints defense? Your slightly older brother’s Saints defense, they ain’t — deez boys good. They’ve allowed bottom-13 marks to quarterbacks on both DraftKings (16.8) and FanDuel (15.6) this season. Nevertheless, Cousins has excelled as a road dog, averaging 19.41 PPG and a +3.12 Plus/Minus with 61.1 percent Consistency on DraftKings and 18.38 PPG and a +2.87 Plus/Minus with 63.2 percent Consistency on FanDuel. In a game with the second-highest total on the slate (51.0), Cousins is a sneaky sharp play.
Crowder leads the Redskins with a 19.48 percent target share over the past four weeks. He even led Washington in Air Yards in two of those four weeks. Crowder gets the most desirable matchup against a very strong Saints secondary as he is likely to draw the flammable Kenny Vaccaro whose 41.1 Pro Football Focus grade is hardly impressive. Crowder, meanwhile, is currently the top-rated wide receiver in Adam Levitan’s model for DraftKings.
With Jordan Reed declared out once again, Davis is likely to have a large role in a potentially pass-heavy game script for Washington. Davis has been targeted a total of 20 times the past two games and ranks just behind Crowder in target market share the past four weeks at 18.18 percent. Davis has a top-five projected ceiling on both sites this week.
As noted by Bryan Mears this week, Thomas is set to break out:
Things continue to point toward Michael Thomas as a contrarian pivot away from the chalkiness of the Saints RBs. Not only does he lead the league in target share over the last four games, but he also leads all players with 54.8 percent of his team’s Air Yards during that span.
Thomas has been targeted at least 10 times in three out of the past four weeks and, despite scoring zero touchdowns, still has managed to post 17.02 PPG on DraftKings during that time. The Thomas train is rolling. Next stop, potentially this week, is the end zone — so you’ll want to climb aboard.
