The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, let’s go game-by-game instead.
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics
Vegas: 215 total, Warriors -7.5
Despite the fact that this game features some high profile offensive players, it will likely be a defensive affair: The Celtics rank first in defensive efficiency while the Warriors rank sixth. The Warriors in particular are implied to score just 111.25 points, significantly less than their season average.
If the Celtics have a weakness on defense this season, it’s the PG position, as PGs projected for at least 25 minutes are averaging +1.85 fantasy points above expectation against them this season:
That’s not entirely surprising given Kyrie Irving’s individual struggles as a defender, ranking 69th out of 79 qualifiers at PG in terms of Defensive RPM. Steph Curry has posted a Plus/Minus of +2.16 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 98 percent is the top mark among all players on today’s slate. Additionally, he leads all PGs with a Consistency Rating of 89 percent and an Upside Rating of 52 percent over the past year.
Klay Thompson will likely be a popular option given his propensity for big games, but last year he struggled a bit in games with comparable point spreads:
Kevin Durant has quite possibly the worst individual matchup on the slate, with his Opponent Plus/Minus rating of -3.92 ranking last for players projected for at least 10 minutes. Even someone as good as Durant is affected by good defense, posting a Plus/Minus of just +0.93 on DraftKings when facing a comparably difficult matchup. That said, he does have a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings, and his 10 Pro Trends rank second among all players with SF-eligibility. His Upside Rating of 55 percent is also the top mark among all players on today’s slate.
Draymond Green may be vital to the real life success of the Warriors, but he’s been a bit of a disappointment from a fantasy perspective so far this season:
He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.2 when sharing the court with Curry, Thompson, and Durant, and he’s another Warrior with a brutal individual matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.83. Like the rest of his teammates, he does appear to be underpriced on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Outside of the “Big Four,” it’s hard to trust anyone for the Warriors: No one else on the team is averaging more than 25.1 minutes per game. Unless you think this game turns into a blowout – which seems unlikely given the spread and Celtics’ defensive ability – none of the Warriors role players has a clear path to return value.
The Celtics’ implied team total of 104 points is the lowest on the slate by a pretty significant margin, but it would represent a slight increase from their season average of 102.7 points; perhaps this spot isn’t as bad as it appears to be on paper.
The Celtics offense largely starts and ends with Kyrie Irving: Virtually all of their regulars see a decrease in usage and Plus/Minus when sharing the court with him:
Despite facing a tough matchup – his Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.71 is one of the worst marks on the slate – he does lead the slate with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel. Historically, PGs with comparable salaries have exceeded value given a comparable number of Pro Trends:
Among the Celtics players, no one has a better individual matchup than Jayson Tatum. Tatum has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.09 on FanDuel, where he leads all Celtics with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has ceded some minutes to Marcus Morris since he returned from injury, but Tatum is still routinely playing around 30 minutes per game. Given his average of 0.87 fantasy points per minute, that’s all he really needs to return value at his current $5,600 salary.
No team has been tougher on opposing centers since the start of last season than the Golden State Warriors:
But they have been somewhat vulnerable to the position to start the season, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +3.14 on FanDuel. Al Horford is capable of scoring fantasy points in a variety of ways: He’s averaging 15.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game this season, while shooting a ridiculous 48.8 percent from 3-point range.
Irving’s return to the starting lineup sent Marcus Smart back to the bench, but he still played 34 minutes in his last contest. He should continue to play big minutes for the Celtics, although his role may decrease slightly when the team is fully healthy.
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 228.5 total, Rockets -12
This game features one of the top offensive teams in the league in quite possibly one of the best spots possible for daily fantasy basketball. The Rockets’ average of 110.0 points per 100 possessions ranks third in the NBA, while the Suns are playing at the second fastest pace in the league and rank 27th in defensive efficiency. The 12-point spread obviously creates some blowout concerns, but players projected for at least 25 minutes of playing time have historically averaged a higher Plus/Minus and more fantasy points…
… than in games that are implied to be close:
Chris Paul is expected to make his return for the Rockets tonight, and although he will likely be limited to roughly 20 minutes, his addition to the offense will have massive ramifications. He’s only played one game in his Rockets tenure so we’re obviously dealing with a very limited sample size, but James Harden has seen a pretty large decrease in usage and production with Paul on the court this season:
Harden has absolutely crushed over his past 10 games on DraftKings:
However, his fantasy success has resulted in a season-high salary of $12,700 on DraftKings. That represents an increase of $2,700 from his opening-night salary of $10,000, which was the only other game he’s played this season with Paul. It’s tempting to say that Harden is worthy of some fade consideration – especially considering his projected ownership of 41+ percent on both DraftKings and FanDuel – but the elite matchup against the Suns complicates things. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.97 is the top mark on today’s slate, and his median, ceiling, and floor projections all rank first by a comfortable margin.
While the addition of CP3 to the lineup will almost undoubtedly hurt Harden in the long run, it could actually prove to be a positive for Eric Gordon. Although he’ll likely return to his role as the sixth man, that should result in a bump in usage as the offensive focal point of the second unit: He posted a usage rate of 30.0 percent in his only game with Paul this season. He should benefit from the same elite matchup as Harden, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.48.
Nene is currently questionable for tonight’s contest, which could open the door for a bigger role for Clint Capela. He has crushed in five games without Nene this season, averaging more than 46 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He’s played at least 29 minutes in each of his past four contests, which he had done only twice in his first 11 games this season. He does have one of the tougher individual matchups among the Rockets – Tyson Chandler had a DRPM of +2.20 last season – but Capela is likely underpriced if he’s going to continue to play 30+ minutes.
Given the matchup, all the Rockets role players projected for at least 25 minutes are also in play: Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker, and Luc Mbah a Moute. Anderson and Ariza possess the most upside of the group, while Tucker and Mbah a Moute provide the most salary relief.
On the Phoenix side, they’ve been largely a two-man show since removing Eric Bledsoe from the lineup. Both Devin Booker and TJ Warren have posted usage rates around 28 percent and have averaged right around 39 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in games without Bledsoe this season:
Booker has been a stud recently, scoring at least 45.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $500 over that time frame. He shot the ball at least 22 times in all three of those contests while posting a usage rate of at least 30.6 percent. If he’s going to command that large a portion of the offense and continue to play big minutes – he’s played at least 34 minutes in five straight games – Booker is likely going to be a bargain at his current salary. He also has on of the top matchups of the day, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.07.
Warren seems extremely underpriced on DraftKings, where his current $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He’s been an excellent value over his past 10 games, despite seeing a salary increase of $1,400 over that time frame:
Warren does have a significantly worse matchup than Booker, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.28, but that doesn’t seem particularly troublesome at his current salary.
The center position for the Suns will likely be worth monitoring throughout the day. Both Tyson Chandler (illness) and Greg Monroe (calf) are questionable to play tonight, and if they can’t go, it will likely force Alex Len into heavy minutes. He played 39.5 minutes and scored 42.75 fantasy points in his last start at center and would be one of the top value options of the day should he draw the start again today.
Marquese Chriss has seen his minutes slowly creep up this season, playing at least 25.5 in three of his past four games. He posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.12 over that time frame on DraftKings, where his current $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Finally, Tyler Ulis has wrangled the majority of the PG minutes away from Mike James, although he hasn’t exactly been productive in those minutes. Still, his $4,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, and he was a major value last season when projected for at least 20 minutes of court time:
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
