The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features four teams implied for 3.2 or more goals, and is absolutely loaded with high-end options:
Center
- Connor McDavid vs. Las Vegas: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $9,000
- Mark Scheifele vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,300
- Tyler Seguin @ Florida: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,100
- Evgeni Malkin vs. Buffalo: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,500
- Sidney Crosby vs. Buffalo: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $8,400
Winger
- Blake Wheeler vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,100
- Alex Ovechkin @ Nashville: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,800
- Patrik Laine vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $7,500
- Phil Kessel vs. Buffalo: DraftKings – $6,900, FanDuel – $8,200
Defense
- Dustin Byfuglien vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $6,400, FanDuel – $5,500
- John Klingberg @ Florida: DraftKings – $6,300, FanDuel – $6,600
- Kris Letang vs. Buffalo: DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $6,600
The Oilers have struggled score goals lately, averaging 1.6 per game over their last five, but they do own the slate’s highest implied total at 3.5 goals against Las Vegas. McDavid leads the slate in Corsi-For over the past month (23.71 per game) and Edmonton owns the highest Corsi-For expectation today (48.5), so this could be a solid chance for them to get back on track. One item not working in the Oilers’ favor: They have the fewest power-play opportunities in the league and face a Golden Knights team that has surrendered the sixth-fewest. They may just have to get it done 5-on-5. Thankfully, McDavid falls in the 98th percentile in even-strength points over the past year.
If you decide to fade McDavid, paying up for Winnipeg skaters like Wheeler, Laine, or Byfuglien makes a ton of sense against an Arizona team that has allowed most goals in the league this year (3.89 per game). The Jets own the third-highest implied total — and the top matchup and goal expectation on the slate.
It’s never easy to jam in Pittsburgh skaters due to their price, but Kessel stands out. He ranks in the 99th percentile in shots, powerplay shots, and points over the past month, and he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Tonight could be an eruption spot (H/T Adam Levitan) for the Penguins against a Buffalo team that has allowed the fourth-most goals this year. Pittsburgh has yet to accrue a regulation loss this year at home, averaging 1.33 more goals per game than on the road.
Values
Nick Bjugstad (DraftKings – $3,700, FanDuel – $4,100): Of power-play skaters with at least three games played, Bjugstad’s 2.69 shots per game over the past month leads all players priced at $4,000 or below on DraftKings.
Jesse Puljujarvi (DraftKings – $3,600, FanDuel – $3,300): Recently recalled from the American Hockey league, Puljujarvi was the Oilers’ 2016 first-round pick (fourth overall), but he has yet to prove much in the NHL in 30 games played. Given his low price, the Oilers’ high implied goal total, and his second-line role, Puljujarvi could be a good value today. Keep in mind he’s averaged just 0.5 points per game in the AHL this year, but he put up 2.79 shots per game in 2016 for the Bakersfield Condors.
One-Timers
Roman Josi (DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $5,600): With Nashville just outside the top tier of implied totals (2.9), Josi could be a phenomenal pivot away from the chalk today. He ranks in the 99th percentile in shots, power-play shots, and shots + blocks per game over the past month, and Washington has allowed the sixth-most shots and eight-most goals against on the road this season.
Jake Muzzin (DraftKings – $5,100, FanDuel – $4,800): Defensemen can be a solid place to differentiate away from your stacks with “one-off” players who have standalone peripheral stat value. Muzzin ranks the 97th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month, but also offers solid tournament upside in the 88th percentile in points for a Kings team currently implied for the fifth-most goals on the slate.
Notable Stacks
Unsurprisingly, one of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the first power-play unit of the Penguins:
Correlating Pittsburgh skaters is not ideal — with the top power-play unit sprinkled across three even-strength lines — but they have drawn the second-most penalties in the league and rank fifth overall in conversion rate (24.7 percent). Kessel, Hornqvist, and Letang all rank in the 97th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month and in the 95th percentile in power-play shots. The Sabres trail only the Coyotes in Corsi-Against over the past month and own the worst penalty kill percentage (66.7 percent) in the NHL on the road.
The Jets rate highly on both sites, but it’s much easier to fit them in on FanDuel:
Byfuglien ranks in the 95th percentile of power-play shots over the past month, and offers a nice peripheral floor (86th percentile in shots + blocks). Connor is probably still mispriced (relative to his increased role) on FanDuel with a 98 percent Bargain Rating, as he ranks in the 90th percentile in goals over the past month. Arizona owns the fifth-worst penalty kill in the league and the Jets currently rank sixth overall on the power play.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, and the slate features some notable home favorites:
- Pittsburgh -230 vs. Buffalo
- Edmonton -180 vs. Las Vegas
- Winnipeg -177 vs. Arizona
Matt Murray will start for the Penguins, and though Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-fewest shots on goal this year, Buffalo has also scored the third-fewest goals. Murray is a viable option in cash games due to the high likelihood of a win, but he is also the third-most expensive option on DraftKings at a position that historically makes sense to pay down.
The Oilers have not named a starter tonight at the time of this writing, but whoever is between the pipes for Edmonton could have a limited peripheral stat ceiling. Among teams playing tonight, the Oilers have the fourth-lowest Corsi-Against over the past month and Vegas has the fourth-lowest Corsi-For over that same time period.
With Carey Price now on injured reserve, Charlie Lindgren (St. Cloud State University alumni) stands out as a tournament option for Montreal. He is currently a slight favorite against Columbus and has the highest save prediction on the slate. The Blue Jackets feature the second-highest Corsi-For over the past month.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
