The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate is expected to be a lower-scoring night, with all four teams tightly clustered between 2.9 and 2.7 implied goals. Multiple expensive skaters are also on the road:
Center
- Tyler Seguin @ Carolina: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,500
- Jamie Benn @ Carolina: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel (wing) – $8,300
- Sean Monahan vs. St. Louis: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $7,700
Winger
- Vladimir Tarasenko @ Calgary: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,300
- Johnny Gaudreau vs. St. Louis: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $7,600
Defense
- Alex Pietrangelo @ Calgary: DraftKings – $6,500, FanDuel – $6,400
- John Klingberg @ Carolina: DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $6,300
Correlating your lineups through stacking is almost always important in DFS hockey, but it’s crucial on a two-game slate. Seguin and Benn have an unreal 0.36 correlation coefficient in our Models, but their upside together could be limited since they have not skated together at even strength over the past few games. Pivoting to Monahan and Gaudreau makes a ton of sense with them sporting an identical 0.36 correlation coefficient while skating together in all situations. The matchup against St. Louis is far from ideal — the Blues have allowed the third-fewest goals and seventh-fewest shots this year — but both Monahan and Gaudreau are top-five in power play time on ice and the latter leads the slate in points per 60 minutes of ice time (pts/60) over the past month.
If you’re fading some of the aforementioned studs, it could make a ton of sense to pay up in St. Louis. As a team, the Blues have the lowest Corsi-For expectation on the slate, but both Tarasenko and Pietrangelo rank in the 97th percentile or higher in shots + blocks and 90th percentile in goals per game over the past month. The Flames have allowed the eighth-most shots this year and own the fifth-worst penalty kill percentage in the NHL.
Values
Jaccob Slavin (DraftKings – $3,900, FanDuel – $4,300): Slavin ranks the 97th percentile of shots + blocks over the past month, third-highest of any player in the slate. He’s clearly underpriced relative to his peripheral stats and role on the second power play unit.
Esa Lindell (DraftKings – $3,600, FanDuel – $4,200): He’s been a steady value option below $4K on DraftKings for quite some time, ranking in the 86th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month. He’s also shown some upside with three goals over his past seven games. His 87 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings leads all power-play defensemen today.
One-Timers
Brayden Schenn (DraftKings – $6,400, FanDuel – $6,700): The slate seemingly lacks goal-scoring upside, but Schenn could easily break things wide open, especially if he can keep up this absurd pace he is on lately with nine points over his past four games. His low peripheral floor (68th percentile in shots + blocks) likely takes him out of cash consideration, but could offer solid upside in tournaments, given Calgary has allowed the eighth-most goals at home this year.
Jeff Skinner (DraftKings – $6,500, FanDuel – $5,700): Carolina has the second-most shots on goal this year. Skinner leads the team with 3.77 shots per game over the past month (98th percentile overall), and trails only Tarasenko for the slate lead. Skinner is a strong leverage play off of the Carolina PP1, which will likely be popular with the Hurricanes carrying the highest implied total on the slate.
Notable Stacks
That said, one of our highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the first power play unit of Carolina Hurricanes:
The Hurricanes own the highest Corsi-For expectation of any team in the slate but are likely still underpriced because the team has scored the ninth-fewest goals. Staal, Aho, and Pesce all own a top-three Corsi-For at their respective positions today, and we’ve talked extensively on NHL Inside the Lab about the value in adding a goaltender to your stacks. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to accrue a win. Dallas has struggled defensively on the road, allowing 3.63 goals per game (seventh-most), so this could be a prime goal-scoring progression spot for Carolina.
Even with the lowest implied total on the slate, Dallas rates highly on both sites, but their high prices are much more palatable on FanDuel:
With Dallas and Carolina leading the slate in Corsi-For expectation, both sides of this game are extremely stackable in regards to peripheral stats, but Dallas could conceivably see lower ownership. Benn and Radulov’s 86th percentile ranking in shots + blocks per game is not exactly the floor we are looking for relative to price, but both offer immense upside in both points and goals (95th percentile or better over the past month). Klingberg’s 2.0 blocks per game over the past month ranks third overall among power-play skaters on tonight’s card, and he has registered an absurd seven points over his past three games. Even on the road, Dallas owns the highest Goals-For expectation and matchup rating on the slate.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, but this slate is wide open without a heavy favorite:
- Carolina -121 vs. Dallas
- St. Louis -105 @ Calgary
- Calgary -105 vs. St. Louis
- Dallas +110 @ Carolina
Ben Bishop will start for the Stars, and even as an underdog, could provide a ton of value leading the slate in save prediction. The Stars have actually allowed the fewest shots in the league this year, but Carolina’s absurd 54.63 Corsi-For over the past month and overall lack of goal-scoring should give Bishop a nice floor in regards to saves.
Paying down at goaltender is usually optimal, and Scott Darling is the cheapest goaltender today on both sites as the “largest” favorite. That said, the Hurricanes’ second-string goaltender has the lowest save prediction on the slate. Carolina has allowed the third-fewest shots, and unlike the Bishop situation, the Stars aren’t a team that can save a tough performance with a high volume of shots on goal.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
