The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate differs depending on which site you’re playing: DraftKings features a four-game main slate starting at 3:30 pm ET, while FanDuel features a two-game main slate starting at 6:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook will likely garner attention considering today’s slate size, but he’s been a big disappointment recently:
That said, he does have a decent matchup today against the Dallas Mavericks: They’re tied for 27th in defensive efficiency and have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.56 to opposing PGs. Westbrook leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Kyle Lowry has also had a slow start to his season, and DraftKings has responded by lowering his salary to $6,800 for today’s matchup with the Boston Celtics. That salary is a bit of an anomaly for Lowry: He’s been priced below $7,000 on DraftKings in just eight previous instances and has historically returned value in those situations:
The Celtics have been a tough matchup this season, ranking first in defensive efficiency, and that defense should only be better without Kyrie Irving: He ranked just 69th out of 79 qualifiers at PG in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) last season.
Value
Darren Collison has been slowly losing minutes to backup PG Cory Joseph, which has resulted in his salary dropping to just $5,500 on FanDuel. That said, he’s in a significant pace-up spot against the Houston Rockets, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.4, and Collison has historically provided solid value in comparable pace-up situations:
He has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel.
Yogi Ferrell is playing heavy minutes for the Dallas Mavericks recently, seeing 29 and 36 over his last two games. He’s priced at just $3,600 on DraftKings, and PGs with comparable salaries and projected workloads have historically exceeded value:
The Mavericks are also in the top pace-up situation of the day, with their players owning a paceD of +6.3 against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Fast Break
Dennis Smith Jr. is in the same pace-up spot as Ferrell and has gone for at least 45.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. His average of 1.01 fantasy points per minute is the sixth-highest mark among PG-eligible players on DraftKings.
Terry Rozier played 28.5 minutes in relief of Irving on Friday and scored 33.75 DraftKings points. He’s been priced up to $5,000 for today’s contest but should see close to 30 minutes of playing time; he has averaged 0.95 fantasy points per minute this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard is surprisingly deep for such a small slate, but that shouldn’t stop James Harden from being owned at an astronomical rate on FanDuel. He continues to score the ball at a ridiculous rate, making at least six 3-pointers in each of his last five games. In fact, given his actual point total of 38 points, his fantasy point total of 54.80 on FanDuel was a bit of a disappointment: He tallied below his season averages in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks.
That said, today’s contest against the Pacers will represent a significant challenge for Harden. He’ll likely draw the defense of Victor Oladipo, who ranked fifth at the SG position in DRPM last season. This game is also on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, which is a situation Harden has not handled well historically:
He still provides the safest floor on the slate for cash games – his floor projection is nearly six points higher than any other player’s on FanDuel – but it’s not crazy to consider fading him in guaranteed prize pools considering his likely ownership.
Value
Marcus Smart is another candidate to see an increased role without Irving. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of the last two games and has posted one of the top usage differentials on the team with Irving off the floor this season:
Eric Gordon’s price has come back to earth a bit after spiking to $7,100 on FanDuel a few weeks ago. He still ranks second on the team with a usage rate of 29.5 percent and has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo has the best matchup of the day at the SG position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.83. He has enjoyed life in Indiana this season, posting a career-high usage rate of 30.9 percent, and the Pacers’ implied team total of 109.75 points trails only the Rockets’ on today’s slate.
DeMar DeRozan leads all SG-eligible players with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings, albeit in a brutal matchup against the Boston Celtics. They’ve limited opposing SGs to an average Plus/Minus of -4.20 this season. Still, DeRozan is not your average SG, averaging 39.6 DraftKings points per game over the past 12 months. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George is coming off a monster performance in his last game, scoring 70.25 DraftKings points in 42 minutes. He contributed in virtually every category across the board, scoring 42 points with a near triple-double while posting a season-high usage rate of 33.2 percent. Given the lack of options at the position today, George should be one of the most popular players on the slate: He’s currently projected for 26-30 percent ownership on DraftKings and 41-plus percent ownership on FanDuel.
That said, there are some concerns with George in today’s matchup against the Mavericks. The Mavs are playing at one of the slower paces in the league, resulting in a paceD of -6.3 for Thunder players. George has a very limited sample size of games with a comparable paceD, but those games don’t paint an encouraging picture:
He’s also been priced up by $600 on both sites after his big performance last time out, and the Mavericks have allowed an average Plus/Minus of -0.13 to opposing SFs on FanDuel this season.
Value
P.J. Tucker has gone for at least 21.25 DraftKings points in three straight games and remains affordable at just $3,800. His role in the offense seems safe even with Luc Mbah a Moute rejoining the rotation on Saturday, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 113.25 ranks first on the slate.
Fast Break
Bojan Bogdanovic has been a solid contributor on FanDuel over his last 10 games:
He’s also historically enjoyed pace-up games, posting a Plus/Minus of +6.13 on FanDuel in games with a comparable pace differential.
Trevor Ariza has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings, where he has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games. He has a decent matchup today against the Pacers, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +2.26 to the SF position this season.
Power Forward
Carmelo
Carmelo Anthony is the highest-priced PF on FanDuel, but I don’t think I could live with myself if I actually had to call him a ‘stud.’ He has been a reliable option for the Thunder, posting a Consistency Rating of 91 percent through his first 12 games, but he is extremely reliant on real-life scoring in order to produce fantasy points. Today’s matchup with the Mavericks doesn’t exactly profile as a high-scoring affair, and they’ve limited opposing PFs to an average Plus/Minus of +0.05 this season.
Value
Ryan Anderson is back on the road, where he has historically been a much better fantasy asset since joining the Houston Rockets:
I don’t know if the dude hates the sight lines at the Toyota Center, loves room service, or needs to get a new mattress at home, but I don’t ever recall seeing home/road splits so drastic. He’s been priced down by nearly $800 on FanDuel over the past week, which happens to coincide with a stretch where the Rockets played three straight games at home.
Fast Break
Steven Adams is currently questionable for today’s contest, and, if he were to miss, it could potentially open the door for Jerami Grant to see a few additional minutes. He didn’t exactly thrive in this situation on Friday, posting a Plus/Minus of -3.06 on DraftKings, but prior to that he had exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight games. He has an exploitable matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who have the second-worst rebound rate in the league this season.
Serge Ibaka has really struggled as a member of the Raptors this season, averaging just 23.4 DraftKings points per game and 26.9 minutes per contest. That said, Ibaka has played at least 28 minutes in three straight games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in all of them. He’s coming off his best game of the season on Thursday, scoring 39.0 DraftKings points against a stout New Orleans frontcourt.
Center
Stud
What is left to be said about Andre Drummond at this point? He’s become a much better player thanks to his improvement as a free throw shooter, and Detroit has become dedicated to playing through him more on the offensive end of the court. He’s averaging a career-high in minutes, assists, free throw percentage, and rebounds, all of which have culminated in an average of 44.1 DraftKings points per game.
Despite his dominance, he remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He has a solid matchup today against Hassan Whiteside, who has allowed an average Plus/Minus of +5.87 to opposing centers this season.
Value
Clint Capela has a Bargain Rating of 52 percent on FanDuel, which is a bit surprising given that virtually all the top centers are priced significantly higher there. Nene is expected to rest in today’s contest, and Capela has averaged roughly 47 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in games without him this season:
Fast Break
Playing Jonas Valanciunas is always a risky proposition, but the Celtics are one team he’s had some success against in the past:
That said, Boston has shown marked improved on the glass this season, currently ranking third in the NBA in rebound rate after ranking 29th last season.
Myles Turner has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings and should enjoy the pace-up spot against the Houston Rockets. He’s historically crushed in games with a comparable paceD:
Houston has been one of the toughest teams in the league on centers this season, however, allowing an average Plus/Minus of -3.70 to the position on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
