The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
John Wall has played well recently, averaging 49.6 DraftKings points over his last three games, and has an excellent matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of +5.62 to opposing PGs this season, which is not surprising given Dennis Schroder’s individual struggles as a defender: He ranked just 74th out of 79 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season. The Wizards have the third-highest implied team total on the slate at 115.5 points, and his $9,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. This game does have some blowout concern — the Wizards are currently 11-point favorites — but Wall has historically been a solid value as a double-digit favorite.
On the other side of this matchup, Schroder has been one of the most consistent options at PG this season, posting a Consistency Rating of 90 percent on FanDuel. He’s dominated possessions for the Hawks — his usage rate of 29.9 percent ranks 12th in the NBA — and his $7,500 salary represents a solid discount from the top tier at the PG position. The Hawks are playing on the road for the second straight day, but Schroder has historically managed to return value in road back-to-backs:
His 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel are tied with Wall’s and Steph Curry’s for the most at the position.
Values
Patty Mills has exceeded value in five straight games since moving into the starting lineup, culminating in a season-high 37 minutes in last night’s contest against the Milwaukee Bucks. He has a decent matchup today against the Chicago Bulls, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.58 to opposing PGs on DraftKings, where Mills has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Frank Ntilikina continues to earn more playing time for the Knicks, seeing at least 23 minutes of court time in four of his last five games. He’s been productive when on the court, averaging 0.86 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, and he doesn’t need to see many minutes to pay off his current $3,800 salary.
Fast Break
Jeff Teague gets to take on the Phoenix Suns in what projects as a significant pace-up spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves: Their pace differential (paceD) of +5.8 is the third-highest mark on the slate. Opposing PGs this season have also shredded Phoenix – they’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of +9.35 to the position on FanDuel — and PGs with comparable matchups and paceDs have historically crushed:
Mike Conley is another PG in a large pace-up spot against the Houston Rockets, resulting in a paceD of +7.8. Conley has historically been a solid value when playing in comparable pace-up games:
He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
No one has been a better matchup for PGs early in the season than the Cleveland Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +11.06 for Dennis Smith Jr. He’s coming off his best game of the season, scoring 45.5 DraftKings points in 31.5 minutes, and he remains affordable at $5,400 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Has the 2016-17 version of James Harden officially returned? He’s coming off back-to-back games with at least 83.5 DraftKings points, and one of those games came against the typically stout defense of the Utah Jazz. What’s been particularly impressive is that Harden managed to pull off those two huge games in markedly different ways. He was scorching hot in the game against the Jazz, scoring 56 actual points by shooting 19 of 25 from the field while posting a usage rate of over 45 percent. Against the Cavs, his usage rate was a much more reasonable 31.5 percent, but he made up for it by recording five steals and pulling down 11 rebounds. That’s what makes Harden special for fantasy basketball.
Today’s matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies will be a true test for Harden: He’s been priced back up to $11,400 on DraftKings and has historically struggled in this matchup:
The Grizzlies have been tough defensively early in the season, allowing an average Plus/Minus of -1.49 to opposing SGs. The decision of whether or not to pay up for Harden will likely go a long way in determining the winners and losers on today’s slate.
Values
I think it’s safe to say that Lou Williams enjoyed his first game without Patrick Beverley. Despite not drawing the start — that honor went to Sindarius Thornwell — Williams managed to play 39 minutes off the bench en route to 49.75 DraftKings points. While playing on a back-to-back is normally a bad thing, it actually works in our favor today: Williams’ salary was increased by only $100 despite the big performance. It’s going to be tough to pass on him for cash games.
Jordan Clarkson has been one of the Lakers’ most important contributors this season, leading all of their regulars with a usage rate of 29.8 percent. That’s resulted in an average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute, which is higher than the per minute rate for both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. He shouldn’t need to play a ton of minutes to pay off his current $4,500 salary.
Fast Break
Speaking of Booker: He seems particularly underpriced on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He leads all SGs with 13 Pro Trends and gets to face a Timberwolves team that ranks 27th in the league in defensive efficiency.
Beal will probably be overlooked compared to his higher profile teammate in Wall, but Beal has arguably just as good of a matchup. The Hawks have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +5.98 to opposing SGs on DraftKings, where Beal leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position is underpriced at the top on DraftKings, with each of the four highest-priced options owning a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent.
If their first game together is any indication, Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to get along just fine with Eric Bledsoe. Giannis actually saw a slight uptick in both usage and production when sharing the court with Bledsoe yesterday, albeit over a small sample of just 26 minutes:
Still, it’s an encouraging sign for his fantasy prospects moving forward.
He gets a nice matchup today against the Los Angeles Lakers, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +4.78 to opposing SFs on DraftKings this season. There are, though, two potential drawbacks in this matchup. The first is his salary, with both sites pricing him up pretty drastically in anticipation of this matchup. He’s priced at $11,200 on DraftKings, and Giannis has managed to return value only once in the five instances he’s been priced above $11,000:
Things are even more bleak on FanDuel, where his $12,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of just two percent.
The second big concern is that this game is the second leg of a back-to-back. Even though it’s being played in Milwaukee, Giannis has historically struggled when playing at home with no rest, owning a Plus/Minus of -0.55 on DraftKings. Giannis figures to be a popular option given his matchup, but there’s a decent amount of risk here.
It hasn’t taken long for Ben Simmons to make his mark in the NBA:
He was a disappointment yesterday, but that’s not surprising given that Joel Embiid played a career-high 32 minutes. It wouldn’t be shocking for the 76ers to sit Embiid today on the second leg of a back-to-back. If they do, Simmons could potentially see a solid boost in both usage and value:
If Embiid sits, however, today’s game against the Golden State Warriors could easily turn into a blowout: The 76ers are already listed 14-point underdogs, and that number could easily rise a few points with Embiid out of the lineup.
Value
TJ Warren played only 28 minutes yesterday in a blowout loss to the Magic, but today’s contest against the Timberwolves looks like a prime spot for a bounceback. The Timberwolves have an elite wing defender (Jimmy Butler) and an abysmal one (Andrew Wiggins). The task of guarding Booker will likely fall on Butler, which would result in Warren getting a very exploitable matchup. Regardless of who’s defending him, Warren still seems underpriced on DraftKings given his current role: He’s averaged 38.7 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in games without Bledsoe this season.
Wesley Johnson has played at least 28.5 minutes in each of the last three games, which gives him some appeal at just $3,900 on DraftKings. Still, he didn’t post a usage rate greater than 13.6 percent in any of those contests, and he failed to meet salary-based expectations in two of them. He has a decent matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans — they’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of +2.46 to opposing SFs this season — but it’s hard to trust Johnson as anything more than a low-upside punt.
Fast Break
LeBron James has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent today and gets to take on a Mavericks team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency. Despite their poor defensive marks, the Mavs have actually allowed a negative Plus/Minus to SFs this season, thanks in part to the fact that they play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Derrick Rose is questionable for today’s contest, and his absence has surprisingly been a negative for LeBron: He’s posted approximately 3.6 fewer DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Rose off the court this season.
Power Forward
Studs
The PF position features some of the top value options on the slate, which will likely make paying up for a guy like Anthony Davis a contrarian strategy. He’s coming off arguably his worst game of the season against the Toronto Raptors, which has resulted in a salary decrease on DraftKings. He has a tough matchup against the Clippers, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of -0.05 to the PF position this season, and Davis has an abysmal track record against them:
He does, though, have some appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his projected ownership of just 13-16 percent.
The injuries to all of the Clippers should result in extra opportunities for Blake Griffin. He disappointed in the same spot yesterday, taking a back seat to Williams on the offensive end of the court. Although it’s easy to assume that Williams playing 39 minutes will eat into Griffin’s production, Griffin has actually posted a higher usage rate when sharing the court with Williams on the year:
Value
Dario Saric has played at least 34.5 minutes in two straight games, which makes him underpriced at his current $4,600 salary on FanDuel. He has a solid matchup today against the Golden State Warriors, who have allowed a Plus/Minus of +5.02 to opposing PFs this season, and Saric would definitely get a boost if Embiid were to sit today.
Markieff Morris scored 23.75 DraftKings points in just 17 minutes on Thursday, and both of those numbers would likely have been higher if not for a brief exit from the game in the first half. His $4,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis is leading the league in usage this season at 35.7 percent and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.80 over his last 10 games. The Kings have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.93 to opposing PFs on FanDuel this season.
It’s hard to trust someone who is barley seeing 20 minutes per game, but Julius Randle has been surprisingly solid in that role:
His salary has increased to $5,000 on FanDuel, but he has an outstanding matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks: They’ve been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and are allowing a Plus/Minus of +7.59 to opposing PFs this season.
Center
Studs
Just like Davis, DeMarcus Cousins seems underpriced on DraftKings at the moment, where his $10,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. The usage split between Cousins and Davis has narrowed since the beginning of the season, but Cousins still leads the team with a usage rate of 33.2 percent. He has a much stronger individual matchup than Davis against DeAndre Jordan, who has allowed a Plus/Minus of +4.15 to opposing centers this season.
We’ve addressed the possibility of Embiid sitting in today’s contest, but if he plays he’s likely underpriced at $8,200 on DraftKings. Embiid has a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating this season, and that was with him playing only 26-28 minutes in most contests. The thought of what kind of damage this guy could do in 30-plus minutes per night is scary considering his average of 1.55 fantasy points per minute.
Value
For most people, Alex Len will be the first and last name they consider at center today on FanDuel. He’s coming off a game with over 40 fantasy points last night and now gets one of the top matchups available for a center in the Minnesota Timberwolves. Karl-Anthony Towns finished dead last among 69 qualifiers in DRPM last season, and the Timberwolves have allowed a Plus/Minus of +5.39 to opposing centers on FanDuel this year.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez has had his playing time fluctuate wildly this season, playing as many as 31 or as few as 18 over his past three games. If he does see the high end of his minute range today, he could be in a potential smash spot against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have allowed a Plus/Minus of +8.41 to centers on FanDuel this season.
Kevin Love has seen one of the largest usage bumps without Rose on the court for the Cavs:
Dallas has the second worst rebound rate in the league this season, which could result in big production on both ends of the court for Love.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
