The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Eli Manning
Projected Ownership: 5-8 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
Note: On Friday, Manning’s projected ownership was elevated from 2-4 percent on DraftKings to 5-8. Be sure to track changes to our projections throughout the weekend.
The Giants don’t inspire confidence, and Eli Manning hasn’t scored more than 13 fantasy points in the last four matchups against the Chargers, Broncos, Seahawks, and Rams. However, all those teams were rated as top-10 pass defenses in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) when they faced the Giants. A road matchup with the 49ers is the best that Manning has seen since his Week 4 game in Tampa Bay, where he racked up 27 fantasy points.
Quarterbacks have scored more points (20.3 points per game) against the 49ers this year than against the Buccaneers. The ‘Niners also allow the second-most total points per game and the second-highest third-down conversion rate, which is a boon for the Giants as Manning has converted only 35 percent of third downs (25th in the league), earning just 16.6 first downs per game (30th in the league). Manning should be aided by the potential efficiency of his running back. Orleans Darkwa is averaging over five yards per carry, and the Giants offensive line has been tolerable, ranking as the league’s 15th-best unit (Football Outsiders). San Francisco has yielded over 450 yards to running backs in the last three weeks. What’s worse, the already banged up 49ers have recently lost two defensive starters in their secondary; Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward were both placed on Injured Reserve with broken arms. Manning and the Giants should be able to earn first downs and extend drives for the first time in a month in a game that could be a sneaky shootout.
RB: Jerick McKinnon
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
As the week of news unfolds, lineup construction may trend toward a “stars and scrubs” approach at running back. It seems likely that a running back priced in the mid-tier, coming off of his bye week, like Jerick McKinnon could go overlooked. At first glance, the matchup with the Redskins defense seems like a tough one. They rank as they league’s 12th overall unit, but the Washington defense has been trending in the wrong direction against running backs. In the last two weeks they yielded 4.4 yards per carry to both Ezekiel Elliot and Thomas Rawls. It was the most effective performance the Seattle rush game has had all year. What’s especially worrisome is their propensity to give up explosive plays. Per Sharp Football Stats, the Redskins rush defense has yielded an explosive rush on 12 percent of carries, the leagues fifth-highest mark. They’ve also yielded the slate’s most yards before contact per carry at 2.23 (Pro Football Focus).
McKinnon was phenomenal in October, scoring more than 24 DraftKings points in three of his four starts, averaging 15 carries and five receptions per game. With an excellent matchup and the potential for explosive plays, McKinnon is an ideal tournament play.
WR: Kendall Wright
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Eventually Mitch Trubisky will have to throw to his wide receivers, and Kendall Wright may be the first one to see the ball from the rookie. Before the bye week, Wright saw a team-leading eight targets from Trubisky and dropped a pass on the goal line. On the season Wright is first among Bears wide receivers in targets and second overall to tight end Zach Miller (leg), whose recent injury will likely create more volume for Wright.
Targeting the Packers with opposing No. 1 wide receivers has been a profitable trend all year, as they rank 27th in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, yielding an average of 9.2 passes per game and 88 yards to the position. With extra time for Trubisky to prepare for the struggling Packers, we could see Wright return reasonable value as a near minimum-priced option on both platforms. Wright holds a 91 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating in our Models.
WR: Cooper Kupp
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
It’s hard to believe that Cooper Kupp has more red-zone targets than DeAndre Hopkins, but he has more red zone targets than Hopkins, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Brown, and Zach Ertz. He enters Week 10 with seven receptions inside the 20-yard line, boasting a near 70 percent catch rate, the highest reception rate among all wide receivers with more than eight red-zone targets. Kupp may be the forgotten man behind Woods and Watkins, who combined for three touchdowns last week, but he has a solid floor of six targets per game. The Rams shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball through the air. They have the second-ranked offense in passing DVOA, and the Houston pass defense has yielded 742 yards and six touchdowns in the last two weeks. For more on Kupp and the Rams passing attack see our Week 10 wide receiver breakdown.
TE: Eric Ebron
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
If it were any other week, we would be targeting the tight end facing the Browns, but Eric Ebron makes everyone think twice. Ebron has played no more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps over the last two weeks, but he’s still averaged five targets with one red-zone target in that span. While he’s not guaranteed to produce, he has a top-two matchup as the Browns have yielded 19.5 DraftKings points per game to tight ends. Ebron owns the highest Player Rating among all tight ends in some of our DraftKings models.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
