The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday’s slate differs depending on which site you’re playing on: DraftKings features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET, while FanDuel features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
It’s tough to trust Russell Westbrook today, even on a slate that is largely devoid of top-end talent. His results this season have been more bad than good, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -2.76 through his first 10 games. Today’s matchup against the Clippers is on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Westbrook has historically struggled in back-to-back situations, especially if that game is being played at home:
On the flip side, Westbrook’s matchup vs. the Clippers should be much easier than it appears. LA has allowed an average Plus/Minus of -3.02 to opposing PGs on FanDuel this season, but their defense will likely take a hit without Patrick Beverley at the helm today. He ranked second among PGs in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) last season, and his likely replacement (Austin Rivers) ranked just 66th out of 79 qualifiers at the position. It’s possible that Westbrook could see reduced ownership, which definitely increases his appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Damian Lillard is only slightly less expensive than Westbrook, but he has a much more fantasy-friendly matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. They’re playing at the fastest pace in the league this season by a comfortable margin, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.5 for Lillard and the rest of the Trail Blazers. Historically, Lillard has done well on FanDuel in comparable pace-up spots:
Brooklyn has also allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.02 to opposing PGs this season, and Portland leads the slate with an implied team total of 115 points.
Value
There aren’t many discount PGs worth considering today, but one possible exception could be Jerian Grant. He’s been solid this season, posting a Consistency Rating of 88 percent on DraftKings, and he and Kris Dunn appear to be splitting the PG duties for the Bulls almost right down the middle. Given Grant’s average of 0.93 fantasy points per minute, he doesn’t need to see a ton of court time to pay off his $4,800 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Elfrid Payton leads all PGs on DraftKings with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent as he gets quite possibly the top matchup of the day against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns rank second in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency. That combination has been extremely generous to opposing PGs: Phoenix is allowing an average Plus/Minus of +8.05 to the position this season. He played 29 minutes in his first game back from injury on Wednesday for a Magic team that is currently without backup PG DJ Augustin.
Reggie Jackson has been a strong investment on DraftKings this season:
His average of 1.1 fantasy points per minute is up there with the top PGs on the slate, but his average of 28.6 minutes per game has kept him from putting up monster performances. Still, he has a Consistency Rating of 90 percent this season on DraftKings and an excellent matchup against Dennis Schroder, who ranked 74th out of 79 PG qualifiers in DRPM last season. Unfortunately, both Jackson and Schroder are not available on the FanDuel main slate today, with the 7 pm ET contest between the Pistons and Hawks being omitted for some reason.
Kemba Walker presents an interesting dilemma today on DraftKings. On one hand, he has a difficult matchup against the Celtics, who rank first this season in defensive efficiency and have allowed an average Plus/Minus of -0.65 to PGs this season. On the other hand, his salary has been reduced to $7,000 for this matchup, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He leads the Hornets with a usage rate of 26.1 percent this season, and his 12 Pro Trends on Friday trail only Lillard’s among PGs on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Today’s slate features no James Harden – the only true stud at the SG position – but it does feature a strong group of players in the $7-$8k range.
Khris Middleton stands out on DraftKings, where he has been an incredible value to start the season:
He routinely plays heavy minutes, seeing at least 38 in four of his past five games, and his average of 1.0 fantasy points per minute is one of the highest marks at the position. He has a matchup today against the San Antonio Spurs, but the Spurs have not been the same defensively without Kawhi Leonard this season, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +2.93 to opposing SGs on DraftKings. It will be interesting to see what the addition of Eric Bledsoe does to the Milwaukee offense – he’s expected to make his debut tonight – but it seems more likely that his minutes will come at the expense of Malcolm Brodgon, Tony Snell, or Matthew Dellavedova.
D’Angelo Russell is still SG eligible on FanDuel, where his average of 1.26 fantasy points per minute makes him the most productive player at the position on a per minute basis. With Jeremy Lin missing the majority of the season due to injury, Russell has commanded a massive portion of the Nets’ offense:
The only real question is how many minutes Russell will actually see in this contest. His playing time has fluctuated between 21 and 35 minutes over his past three games, and that kind of volatility under head coach Kenny Atkinson does make him tougher to trust than the rest of the top SGs.
Values
Donovan Mitchell has seen his stock soar over the past week or two, which has left Rodney Hood as a bit of a forgotten man in Utah. Even with Mitchell coming on, Hood should still serve as one of the focal points of the Jazz offense when he’s on the court: He posted a usage rate of 26.8 percent in his last game and is second on the team in usage for the season. Hood has a matchup today against a Miami team that has somewhat struggled defensively, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +4.96 to opposing SGs on FanDuel.
Playing Terrence Ross is not for the faint of heart, but a matchup against the Phoenix Suns seems like a spot where it’s at least worth considering. They’re allowing a Plus/Minus of +4.58 to opposing SGs, and Ross is dirt cheap at just $3,500 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Devin Booker gives you virtually nothing in the peripheral categories, but he can get buckets as well as just about anyone in the NBA. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. The Suns’ implied team total of 110.5 points ranks third on today’s slate.
If Jayson Tatum is unable to go today for the Celtics, Marcus Smart could wind up being one of the primary beneficiaries. He saw 35 minutes in the Celtics’ last game, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.39 is the top mark among SG-eligible players on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
It’s going to be very interesting to see how the addition of Bledsoe impacts Giannis Antetokounmpo on the offensive end of the court. So far this season, Giannis has been putting up MVP-caliber numbers: 31.9 points per game (first in NBA), 34.5 percent usage rate (third), 4.8 assists per game. He should still maintain solid numbers in the rebound and defensive categories regardless of what the Bledsoe addition does to the offense, but he’ll likely need to maintain his usage and scoring rates in order to pay off his current $11,800 salary on FanDuel. He’s a much better value on DraftKings, where his $10,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
As far as today’s slate goes, he has a pretty tough matchup against the Spurs. Even though their defense in general may be down, Giannis’ Opponent Plus/Minus rating of -1.28 is still one of the worst marks at the position. The Bucks’ implied team total of 100 points is also the fourth lowest mark on today’s slate.
Values
Evan Turner continues to play lots of minutes for the Portland Trail Blazers, seeing at least 31 in three of his past four games, and the Nets have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +6.22 to opposing SFs on DraftKings. He should be a popular value option around the industry considering his $4,200 salary on DraftKings and $4,500 salary on FanDuel.
DeMarre Carroll saw just 18 minutes in the Nets’ last game, but it was the second leg of a back-to-back, so that wasn’t entirely surprising. They’ve had two days off prior to today’s contest, and Carroll has been a solid value this season when receiving at least one day of rest in between games:
His $5,300 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
TJ Warren still seems underpriced on DraftKings given his current role in the Suns’ offense: He’s averaged over 39 fantasy points in games without Bledsoe this season:
Evan Fournier has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.88 over his past 10 games. His 23.7 percent usage rate third among Magic regulars, and Orlando’s implied team total of 113.75 points ranks second on today’s slate.
Jaylen Brown has one of the top Opponent Plus/Minus ratings at the SF position on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s another candidate to absorb some of Tatum’s minutes if he were unable to go tonight.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin has been a bit of a disappointment so far this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.56 through his first 10 games. But there’s a chance that Griffin could post an absolutely massive usage rate today with the Clippers being down Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, and Milos Teodosic. It’s a small sample size, but Griffin has been a monster with all three of those guys off the court this season:
This is also a slight pace-up spot for the Clippers against the Oklahoma City Thunder, resulting in a paceD of +2.3, and Griffin leads all players with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Jerami Grant may not play many minutes for the Thunder, but the minutes he is playing have been very impactful: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.71 on DraftKings over his past 10 games:
His current $3,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Bobby Portis returned from his suspension on Wednesday and posted over 40 fantasy points in just 24.5 minutes of court time. Both Lauri Markkanen and Robin Lopez are questionable in advance of today’s contest, and if either were to miss, Portis would become a very intriguing value option at just $5,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Carmelo Anthony is coming off one of his best games of the season, scoring 41 FanDuel points in a #RevengeGame against the Denver Nuggets. His offensive game hasn’t been that affected by his move to Oklahoma City, with his current usage rate of 28.0 percent representing only a slight decrease from his last season with the Knicks. That said, he’s always going to be reliant on real-life scoring for fantasy production, and the fact that tonight’s game is the second leg of a back-to-back is probably not a great sign for his fantasy perspectives: He’s historically been markedly worse when playing with no rest:
Today’s matchup against the Suns results in a paceD of +3.8 for Aaron Gordon, who has historically been a solid value in comparable pace-up situations:
His current $7,600 salary means he’ll need to do a lot more than that to return value today, but it’s nice to know that he has historically exceeded expectations in fast-paced games. The Suns have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +2.28 to the PF position on DraftKings this season.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond seems to have realized his full potential this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.41 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. Despite his outstanding production, he remains underpriced on DraftKings, owning a Bargain Rating of 99 percent in today’s matchup against the Hawks. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.22 is the second-best mark on today’s slate, and this matchup with the Hawks should play right into Drummond’s biggest strength: They have the second worst rebounding rate in the league this season. The Pistons will also likely be thin in the frontcourt, with both Jon Leuer and Stanley Johnson unlikely to suit up for tonight’s contest.
With Drummond unavailable on FanDuel, the top center options are a lot less appealing. One option worth considering is Rudy Gobert, who has an exploitable matchup against Hassan Whiteside. While Whiteside grades out well in DRPM thanks mostly to his ability to protect the rim, his individual defense leaves a lot to be desired: The Heat are allowing an average Plus/Minus of +6.28 to opposing centers this season.
Values
Alex Len was a major disappointment filling in for Tyson Chandler on Wednesday, scoring just 5.6 FanDuel points in only 19 minutes of action. But don’t write him off completely: Len was plagued by foul trouble and has still been a productive player overall this season, averaging 0.98 fantasy points per minute. If Chandler is unable to go today – he’s currently questionable – Len would remain an appealing value option at the center position.
Al Horford is out today with a concussion, which means Aron Baynes will likely draw another start at the center position. He was impressive in his last start – scoring 34.5 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes – and remains affordable at $4,300. But he will draw a much tougher matchup today against Dwight Howard, who has limited opposing centers to an average Plus/Minus of -3.39 this season.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has played only 15 minutes this season without Beverley, Gallinari, and Teodosic, but he has posted the third largest usage differential on the team and averaged over 43 DraftKings points per 36 minutes over that time frame. He has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings.
Jusuf Nurkic posted at least 44.25 DraftKings points in three straight games before getting shut down by Marc Gasol in his last outing. There’s no shame in that – Gasol and the Grizzlies have been an elite defensive team for a long time – and today’s matchup with the Nets should feature no such challenges.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
