This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a six-game slate that starts at 7:00 pm ET.
All data pulled from HockeyViz.com, Corsica.Hockey, or NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.
Jack Eichel ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
For my FantasyLabs debut, I feel as if this slate is a wonderful introduction to what I love about daily fantasy sports and my overall process. I have one rule as it pertains to NHL, and it is not complicated: Shot attempts are king. We want talented players, but hockey is a game of bounces, and those who shoot the puck generate their own bounces. Not only does a shot score you fantasy points, but it gives you a chance at a goal (duh) and sets up a rebound opportunity to pick up an assist. Pretty passing plays are great, but Connor McDavid-esque displays of talent are few and far between, and most goals are of the gritty variety.
That transitions us to Jack Eichel, who comes into this slate with 14 points in 15 games for a moribund Sabres team. I had extremely high hopes for Jack this season as someone who combined incredible talent with an elite shot rate à la Alex Ovechkin, and to this point in the year it seems as if being paired with Evander Kane has lowered his shot rate (as measured by iCorsi/60), going from third in the NHL last season at north of 21 (behind only Ovechkin and Brent Burns, the two true NHL DFS superstars, with a higher points/60 than both) all the way down to 16 per 60 (100th) this season. That’s enough of a drop to see him fall from the truly elite tier to the merely ‘pretty good’ tier.
There is hope, however, as the last 10 days have seen him outshoot Kane (who currently sits in the top 10 in the NHL in iCorsi/60 and who stole some of his shot volume early in the season as his most common linemate), and a personal FantasyLabs Model that I created has Eichel as the highest-rated play on this slate. Going against a Florida team that has struggled defensively, allowing at least three goals in seven straight games, Eichel has no reason to be priced as the No. 8 center on DraftKings and FanDuel. This Buffalo offense runs entirely through Jack. He’s likely to add a puck to the Eichel Tower.
John Carlson ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
John Carlson leads the league in time on ice per game this season and ranks third on this slate in shots+blocks per game behind only Johnny Boychuk and Patrice Bergeron. The floor with Carlson is massive with Matt Niskanen out for the Capitals, as there are tons of minutes to fill in all situations. Only helping his cause is a matchup with the Penguins, who this season have sneakily ranked in the bottom five in expected goals against per 60, a measure of not only shot attempts but also how dangerous those attempts are, a truer measure of defensive ability than shots alone.
The Penguins are not a good defensive team, and with how up-tempo they play any defenseman bound to log big minutes against their top lines gets a significant boost. Carlson is set to play 27-29 minutes in an up-tempo environment, and you can fall back on an incredible top power play unit even if his even-strength production falters. Carlson’s price will probably jump soon to match his unique combination of TOI, skill, and DFS relevancy.
Cam Atkinson ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
With Artemi Panarin, Alexander Wennberg, and Cam Atkinson, the Blue Jackets have a top line to target on this slate. Wennberg is pass-first to the point of not being DFS-relevant and has lost his power play time entirely, taking him completely off the table. However, a new look power play of Atkinson, Panarin, Nick Foligno, Seth Jones, and Zach Werenski makes the duo plus one or both of the Blue Jackets’ stud defensemen an elite stack. Panarin has a Bargain Rating of 99 on DraftKings and Atkinson has a 96. If forced to pick between the two, I’d go with Atkinson if only because his role was relatively uncertain coming back from injury, and he came out firing in his first game with seven shot attempts.
Both are fantastic plays in a game with some very sneaky shootout potential against the Hurricanes. Using opponent-adjusted xG/60 (a small edit from Corsica.Hockey information, essentially), the combined performances of these two teams over their last 10 games lift them to No. 1 (CBJ) and No. 2 (CAR) on the slate in terms of xGF/60, and this opponent adjustment technique has been one I’ve used to great success in the past to pinpoint up-tempo possibilities.
Mathew Barzal ($4,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel)
Mathew Barzal is a top center value on Friday, lining up against the ‘greatest show on turf’ Dallas Stars. His incredible play as of late got me thinking: Who are some other players who have had such incredible point production while still maintaining a very solid shot floor? There simply can’t have been many for this cheap. Luckily, we can answer this question with the Labs Trends tool.
It turns out, there aren’t a ton, but those who have matched the trend have done well in both DFS and NHL. The overall trend has a +0.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and what is more telling to me are the names who have had numbers similar to Barzal’s (3.00 points/60 on the year, with at least two shots per game) at a sub-$5,000 price tag. This season, Evgenii Dadonov and Clayton Keller have fit the bill, while guys like Conor Sheary and Leon Draisaitl have matched the trend in seasons past. The common thread among these guys? You aren’t getting them for $4,600 anymore, and everything about Barzal’s play screams that he is for real.
Kyle Connor ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel)
Connor is playing on Winnipeg’s top power play unit and is the direct beneficiary of a significant injury to Mathieu Perreault. In the minors last year Connor posted exceptional numbers given that he wasn’t even 20 years old when the season started. Connor has been the beneficiary of a high Sh% for two years now, putting up very strong shot numbers from the AHL, and he’s had success in his limited NHL time. The real kicker is that Connor gets a road matchup with what should be a bad defensive team in the Golden Knights (don’t ask me how they’ve done this, I have no idea). The winger gets excellent exposure, on the cheap, to a team I’d like to have a piece of in cash games.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
