The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
The Thunder currently sit in 12th place in the Western Conference despite having extremely high expectations to begin the year. Russell Westbrook started the season by looking to distribute more and incorporate his new superstar teammates into the offense, but he’s reverted to his 2016-17 form a bit over his past two games, posting an average usage rate of 36.7 percent. He has a projected usage of 30.42 percent for today’s matchup – which is conservative given his play over the past two games – and players with comparable usage rates have historically been excellent values at Westbrook’s current salary on FanDuel:
He does have a somewhat tough matchup against the Nuggets, who are playing at a slower pace and have held PGs to an average Plus/Minus of -0.48 on FanDuel this season.
John Wall is only slightly cheaper than Westbrook on both sites, but has a much easier matchup today against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are playing at the third fastest pace this season, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +1.1 for Wall and the rest of the Wizards. Historically, Wall has crushed in comparable pace-up situations:
The Lakers have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.64 to PGs on DraftKings, where Wall has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
Lonzo Ball has seen his price plummet to $6,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He’s shooting just 29.5 percent from the field, but he remains a solid contributor in all of the peripheral categories. He also provides a solid minutes floor, playing at least 35 in each of the past two games.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry has not looked like the player we’ve grown accustomed to over his first 10 games this season:
His salary has been reduced to just $7,000 for today’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, which is a bit of an anomaly for him. He’s had a price tag of $7,000 or lower just 12 times over the past three seasons. While most of those matchups have come against elite defensive teams like the Jazz or Spurs, today’s matchup against the Pelicans isn’t nearly as intimidating. He will likely have much lower ownership than Wall and Westbrook in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Emmanuel Mudiay had posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games on FanDuel prior to his poor performance against the Nets on Tuesday. He’s compiled an Upside Rating of 72 percent this season — the highest among PGs on today’s slate – and he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Houston gets to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers today, which should be a recipe for a lot of offense: Both of these teams rank in the top three in offensive efficiency and this game leads the slate with an over/under of 228.5 points. James Harden is coming off a massive game in his last outing, scoring 83.5 fantasy points on DraftKings against a very tough Utah Jazz defense. He posted a usage rate of 45.6 percent in that contest, making it the second time in three games that he eclipsed 41 percent. The Cavaliers rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and Harden’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.81 is the second highest mark on the slate. He’s going to be tough to avoid, especially on DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
Iman Shumpert, who’s expected to draw the start for Derrick Rose, is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. So far this season, his results with Rose off the court do not exactly inspire confidence:
Still, Shumpert is projected to play 28.8 minutes and carries a cheap $3,000 price tag on FanDuel. Players with comparable minutes projections and salaries have historically exceeded expectations:
He has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel.
Dwyane Wade is slightly more expensive than Shumpert at $4,700, but he will likely be a much more impactful player when he’s on the court. His usage projection is nearly 10 points higher than Shumpert’s, resulting in an average of 0.95 fantasy points per minute. Wade won’t need to play a ton to return value tonight.
Fast Break
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been a key part of the Lakers’ rotation recently, playing at least 33 minutes in four straight games and exceeding salary based expectations in all of them. He will likely see at least that many minutes tonight as a defensive stopper against the Wizards dynamic backcourt duo. But there are two looming concerns for KCP: First, this is the second leg of a road back-to-back, which is a situation that he has not historically handled well:
And second: The Lakers are the largest underdogs of the day. If they can’t keep the game close, KCP likely won’t see his full minutes load.
Given the struggles of Kyle Lowry, one would think that DeMar DeRozan has been on a tear recently. That hasn’t exactly been the case, with DeRozan posting a usage rate roughly 3.5 percent lower than his mark last season. With that said, he does have a significant edge in his matchup today when compared to Lowry: He will likely draw the defense of either Dante Cunningham or E’Twuan Moore, both of whom graded out negatively in Defensive Real Plus/Minus last season, while Lowry has a tough matchup against Jrue Holiday.
Small Forward
Stud
Many will flock to LeBron today with Rose being inactive, but the “point guard LeBron” narrative has likely been overblown: His results in games without Rose have actually represented a pretty significant decrease in value:
The Rockets have also been tough on opposing SFs to start the season, allowing a Plus/Minus of -1.14 on DraftKings. But despite those negatives, this is still LeBron James: His ceiling projection trails only Harden’s on today’s slate. He also has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings, which may be too enticing to pass up.
Value
Like LeBron, Trevor Ariza also carries a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Unlike LeBron, he has an elite matchup today, with the Cavs allowing an average Plus/Minus of +6.55 to the SF position. Ariza has played at least 31 minutes in every game this season and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.44 over his past three games.
Fast Break
Paul George leads the SF position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which has historically resulted in strong production for comparably priced SFs:
His average of 1.03 fantasy points per minute trails only LeBron at the position, and the Nuggets have allowed a Plus/Minus of +2.49 to SFs this season.
Brandon Ingram has been a reliable option for fantasy players, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.78 this season and a Consistency Rating of 87 percent over the past 12 months on FanDuel. Ingram leads tonight’s SFs with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.32
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis has been a dominant fantasy option this season on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on today’s slate. He’s compiled a 90 percent Consistency Rating and 70 percent Upside Rating, with his only blemish coming in a game that he had to leave early due to an injury. Davis has been averaging 36.8 minutes per game this season, but that probably understates how much he’s actually been playing: He’s played at least 39 minutes in all but two games. The Brow will likely continue to serve as the 1B to DeMarcus Cousins’ 1A on the offensive end of the court, but Davis has made up for that by averaging career-highs in both rebounds and assists while adding in a combined 3.33 blocks + steals per game. The one real issue with Davis today is his matchup against the Toronto Raptors. They’re playing slow this season, resulting in a paceD of -3 for the Pelicans’ players, and they’ve allowed a Plus/Minus of -1.14 to opposing PFs on DraftKings this season. It’s going to be difficult to choose between all the high-priced talent on today’s slate, and that matchup could push more people away from Davis and towards the other stud options.
Believe it or not, Kevin Love has actually led the Cavs in usage in their four games without Rose this season:
He pulled down 16 rebounds in his last game against the Bucks – which isn’t exactly surprising considering their futility on the glass – but part of that was due to the absence of Tristan Thompson. Given those two key absences for the Cavs, it’s possible that Love could see an expanded role on both ends of the court tonight.
Value
Dario Saric is coming off his best game of the season against the Utah Jazz, thanks in part to the fact that Joel Embiid was resting. He’ll likely go back to his regular role today against the Kings, but that shouldn’t automatically take him out of consideration: He’s exceed salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, and the Kings have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.46 to PFs on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma disappointed yesterday against the Celtics, but he appears to be the real deal. He put up a double-double in each of the two games prior to last night and has averaged close to 37 minutes per game since the injury to Larry Nance Jr. Kuzma has an excellent matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are allowing a Plus/Minus of +4.61 to PFs this season.
Markieff Morris played 27 minutes in his last game and appears to be inching closer to a full workload. That may not come tonight against the Lakers, but he likely doesn’t need full minutes to return value at his current $4,500 salary on FanDuel.
Center
Studs
DeMarcus Cousins has shredded virtually everyone he’s played this season:
He’s averaging a ridiculous 1.63 fantasy points per minute and is leading the league in minutes per game at 38.3. That’s a pretty lethal combination. He is in a tougher spot than usual against the Toronto Raptors, but Cousins is basically matchup proof. It will be interesting to see where the ownership lands on all of tonight’s studs – Cousins, James, Davis, and Harden are all projected for 26-30 percent ownership on DraftKings, with Westbrook only slightly behind at 21-25 percent.
Joel Embiid is the discount center du jour on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He has a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating this season, which is not surprising given that he has a Consistency Rating of 94 percent dating back to last season. Oh, and he has one of the top matchups of the day against the Sacramento Kings, who are allowing an average Plus/Minus of +7.07 to opposing centers on DraftKings.
Value
You never really know what you’re going to get with Jonas Valanciunas, but there are some encouraging signs today. First, the Pelicans play possibly the largest frontcourt in the league, which means that the Raptors will likely need to avoid their small-ball lineup or risk getting destroyed by the Cousins/Davis duo. That could result in Valanciunas improving upon his low minute count over the past few games. The Raptors are also home favorites in today’s contest, which has historically been a great situation to target Valanciunas:
There’s always risk with him, but there’s also a lot of potential upside at just $4,900 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Clint Capela has seen his minutes plummet over the past two games, causing his salary to dip by more than $1,000 since its peak on FanDuel. If his minutes can return to the 26-28 range, Capela has a chance to be a very nice value.
Nikola Jokic has 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is tied with Cousins for the top mark on the slate. He also has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, and centers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been solid:
Jokic should be relatively low-owned tonight, given the plethora of high-priced options to choose from.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
