The Defenses and Kickers Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, so far this season defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (48 teams) have averaged 10.96 points with a +2.84 Plus/Minus and 7.5 percent average ownership, while defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (60 teams) have averaged 9.90 points with a +2.49 Plus/Minus and 6.8 percent average ownership. More than halfway through the regular season, paying up for defenses continues to be more valuable on DraftKings.
The Big 2 Defenses
- Jacksonville ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
- Detroit ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
I’ve written about the Jacksonville Jaguars defense for several weeks, and I’m running out of superlatives to describe their awesomeness, so I’ll let Matthew Freedman handle it this week. In this week’s Vegas Report, Freedman wrote this:
The #Sacksonville Jaguars are first in the league with 14.63 PPG allowed and a +5.47 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. Defensive ends Calais Campbell, Dante Fowler Jr., and Yannick Ngakoue have combined for 23 sacks, weakside linebacker Telvin Smith is Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 run defender at his position, and cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are both top-10 PFF cover men. The Jags defense is legit — as is the Chargers defense, which is second with a +4.91 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. As the football gawds have it, the Jags host the Chargers in Week 10. The total for that game — 41.5 points — is one of the lowest totals on the slate for good reason.
The Jaguars welcome the Chargers to #Sacksonville as 3.5-point favorites, and the total has actually dipped down to 41. The Jaguars are tied for the fifth-highest sack projection (3.1) in our NFL Models this week, most likely because the Chargers’ offensive line has allowed the eighth-lowest adjusted sack rate in the league (5.2 percent). Against a more mortal set of blockers, the Jaguars and their league-leading 12.2 percent sack rate would likely be projected for a much larger number. Amazingly, the Jaguars D/ST has scored at least 12 points in six of eight games this season. This week their salary dropped $100 on FanDuel, where they have an enticing 86 percent Bargain Rating and just the third-highest price tag among defenses on the main slate.
Motor City Roar
The No. 1 rated defense in Adam Levitan’s Model for DraftKings and FanDuel, the Detroit Lions welcome Cleveland — implied to score a horrifyingly slate-low 15.3 points — to Ford Field as large 13-point favorites. Since 2014, defenses playing at home as large favorites against teams implied to score comparable points have produced 11.18 points per game (PPG) with a +2.51 Plus/Minus and 61.5 percent Consistency on DraftKings and 11.05 PPG with a +3.20 Plus/Minus and 69.2 Consistency on FanDuel. Detroit is tied for fourth in the league with their 3.6 interception percentage and 10 total interceptions. They have, however, struggled to get to the quarterback, producing the 11th-lowest sack percentage (5.5 percent) in the league. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offensive line has been about league-average, allowing 17 sacks and a 7.1 percent sack rate. The Lions have the second-highest ceiling projection for both sites this week.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The Steelers own our highest ceiling projection for both sites this week, and their 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes them extremely inviting. The Indianapolis offensive line continues to lay claim to the worst adjusted sack percentage (10.8 percent) in the league, and the Steelers have registered sacks at the third-highest clip (9.0 percent and 26 sacks) — a recipe for lots of Pittsburgh sacks, as evidenced by our slate-high 4.8 sack projection.
Los Angeles Rams ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): The Houston Texans’ offensive line was giving up a boatload of sacks (28) with a mobile quarterback, and now they’re trying to protect an immobile statue disguised as Tom Savage, who has been sacked at rate of 13.6 percent. The Rams have the fifth-highest sack percentage (8.7 percent) and third-best interception percentage (3.8 percent) in the NFL this season.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
After posting his second straight week of 17 points, Greg Zuerlein is back at the top of the kicking pool even with Stephen Gostkowski and the Patriots on the slate. Greg “The Leg” and the Rams are favored by 11.5 points at home against the Deshaun Watson-less Houston Texans and implied to score a slate-high 28.5 points. Zuerlein ranks fourth on the slate with his 12.5-point projection, and his +3.86 Projected Plus/Minus ranks sixth. In general, kickers playing at home for teams favored by at least 10 points have averaged 9.39 PPG with a +1.21 Plus/Minus. Zuerlein has hit double-digit points in five of his last six games.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Ryan Succop ($4,800): Succop leads the slate with a +5.6 Projected Plus/Minus and 13.7 projected point total. Tennessee hosts Cincinnati in a game with the second-lowest total on the slate (40.5), but the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most PPG to kickers (9.88) and a +1.84 Plus/Minus with 75.0 percent Consistency. Succop has connected on 11 field goals in 12 attempts his last three games, during which time he’s averaged 14.0 PPG.
Chris Boswell ($4,800): The Steelers are implied to score the third-most points (27.0) on the slate, and Indianapolis has allowed the third-most PPG to kickers (10.38) this season. Boswell’s 12.8-point projection and +4.7 Projected Plus/Minus both rank second on the slate.
