The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry is a viable option almost every time he’s on the slate, but he’s going to be incredibly difficult to fade tonight after news that Kevin Durant won’t suit up. Playing without Durant is nothing new to the Warriors; they played 20 games without him last season and managed to go 16-4 in those contests. No Warriors player saw a bigger boost in value with Durant off the court last season than Curry, who had a usage rate of 33.2 percent and averaged 51.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
This season, his usage without Durant has jumped to a ridiculous 41 percent, increasing his fantasy production to 64.18 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. He has a solid matchup today against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who rank just 27th in the league in defensive efficiency despite their 7-3 record.
Values
Dion Waiters is expected to return to the lineup today, which will automatically remove Tyler Johnson from consideration for most people. But Johnson has an awesome matchup today against the Phoenix Suns, who are allowing an average Plus/Minus of +7.74 to opposing PGs this season. This is also a major pace-up spot for the Heat players – their pace differential (paceD) of +5.3 is the top mark on the slate – and Johnson has historically exceeded value in comparable pace-up situations:
His $4,300 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
On a per minute basis, Reggie Jackson is one of the most productive PGs on the slate: His average of 1.1 fantasy points per minute ranks fifth among today’s PGs. The only issue is that Jackson doesn’t play as many minutes as a typical starting PG, seeing less than 30 in seven of 10 contests this season. Still, there is some reason for optimism today. He has a solid individual matchup against Darren Collision, who ranked 58th among 79 qualifiers at PG in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) last season, and he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Elfrid Payton is questionable for today’s contest with a hamstring issue that has already caused him to miss the past eight games. The Magic are thin at PG with DJ Augustin already ruled out, so it’s possible that Payton could assume his normal role right out of the gate if he returns to the lineup. He has a massive ceiling thanks to his ability to pile up peripheral statistics and leads the PG position with a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. This is a situation worth monitoring as the day goes along.
Jeff Teague has been excellent recently, scoring at least 33.8 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. Teague has a paceD of +5.1 today facing the Golden State Warriors, and he has historically smashed in a limited number of comparable pace-up situations:
Shooting Guard
Studs
Devin Booker busted in a big way last time out against the Nets, but he appears to be in another prime spot tonight. His $7,200 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent, and his matchup against the Heat is a good one: They’re allowing an average Plus/Minus of +4.71 to opposing SGs. He’s averaged roughly 35.5 FanDuel points per game in eight games without Eric Bledsoe this season.
Many people will fade Victor Oladipo today against Avery Bradley, who has a reputation for being a great defender. But the numbers tell a different story: Bradley ranked just 62nd among 81 qualifiers at SG in DRPM last season. The bigger concern for Oladipo is that this is the second leg of a road back-to-back, which has historically resulted in a slight decrease in production for Oladipo:
Like Booker, Oladipo seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his $7,300 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Dion Waiters is listed as the starter for today’s matchup after missing the past two games for the birth of his daughter, and he should step right back into his normal role. He’s another player who has crushed in an admittedly small sample size of comparable pace-up games:
His +4.32 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings ranks third-best among SGs on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson will definitely see an increase in ownership given the Durant news, however his production without KD on the court this season does not paint a rosy picture:
Still, this is a small sample size over just 60 minutes of court time, and his usage differential of +3.7 percent last season was tied with Curry’s for the largest on the team. The one real negative for Thompson today is his likely matchup with Jimmy Butler, who was one of the top wing defenders in the league by DRPM last season.
Avery Bradley has seemingly found his stride in the Pistons’ offense, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.65 on DraftKings over his past five games. He leads the SG position with a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and could potentially see an expanded role with Stanley Johnson likely to miss tonight’s game.
Andrew Wiggins has historically fared well in his matchups with the Golden State Warriors:
It’s never fun to roster Wiggins because he’s so reliant on scoring and offers very little in the peripheral categories, but that’s not as big a concern at his current $6,300 salary on FanDuel: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.95 and Consistency Rating of 62.3 percent when comparably priced.
Small Forward
Stud
TJ Warren may not have a ‘stud’ salary at this point, but that’s exactly what he’s been this season without Bledsoe. Although Booker may get the headlines, Warren has actually led the team in both usage and fantasy production in games without Bledsoe:
He has a tougher matchup today against the Miami Heat – they’re allowing an average Plus/Minus of -1.31 to opposing SFs this season – but he’s way underpriced at $6,000 on DraftKings given his current role for Phoenix.
Value
Andre Iguodala will be the go-to value SF today, and with good reason: He averaged just under 25 DraftKings points and lead the team in Plus/Minus in games without Durant last season:
At his current salary of $3,700 on DraftKings, he seems like a lock for cash games.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier was terrible in his last start, and FanDuel responded by slashing his price tag by $1,200. His new $6,100 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. Historically, wing players with comparable salaries, Bargain Ratings, and number of Pro Trends have been excellent values:
If Payton were unable to play in today’s contest, Jonathon Simmons would likely see the biggest boost in value. He drew the start for Payton in the last game for the Magic and has seen a significant jump in assist rate, usage rate, and Plus/Minus with Payton off the court this season:
Jaylen Brown leads the slate with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He has an intriguing matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, who have been better than expected defensively but are playing at the third fastest pace in the league.
Power Forward
Studs
Next up on our tour of the Warriors is Draymond Green. He did see a bump in usage of 1.5 percent without Durant last season, but that’s not where Draymond makes his money. He does everything else for the Warriors, so it’s not surprising that he didn’t have the same bump in production that his superstar teammates when playing without KD:
Things haven’t been much better for him this season: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -4.5 per 36 minutes, which is in line with his numbers from last year. Given that he will likely see elevated ownership, it’s not crazy to consider fading him in GPPs.
It’s time to starting taking Kristaps Porzingis seriously as a legit superstar. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.80 through his first 10 games this season, despite seeing a pretty large salary increase since opening night:
He’s leading the league with a usage rate of 35.6 percent, which he has converted into a ridiculous scoring average of 30 points per game. He’s also third in the league in blocked shots per game, and that kind of production on both ends of the court has culminated in an average of 1.4 fantasy points per minute this season, tops among all players on today’s slate.
He has a solid matchup tonight against the Orlando Magic, who have allowed a Plus/Minus of +3.37 to opposing PFs this season. The Knicks are playing on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, but that really hasn’t affected Porzingis early in his career:
Of course, none of this matters if he doesn’t wind up playing. He was a late addition to the injury report on Wednesday, so his status will have to monitored prior to lineup lock. He could be on a minutes limit even if he is active, which would make paying off his elevated price tag extremely difficult.
Values
Domantas Sabonis is questionable for today’s contest, and if he were to sit, Thaddeus Young would likely be one of the top beneficiaries:
Even if Sabonis does suit up, Young would still have some value: He’s played at least 36 minutes in five of his past six games and has averaged 0.84 fantasy points per minute this season. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Enes Kanter has PF eligibility on DraftKings and faces off against the Magic’s Nikola Vucevic, who has allowed a 61.2 FG% within six feet of the rim this season. Kanter won’t play a ton, but he doesn’t need many minutes to return value; he’s averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute this season.
Fast Break
James Johnson has been a monster over his past three games, averaging 17.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. He’s in one of the top spots of the day against the Phoenix Suns, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +2.27 to opposing PFs so far this season. He has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel.
Aaron Gordon has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency this season. That has nothing to do with him as a player and everything to do with minutes: He’s averaged 43.85 DraftKings points per game in the five contests he’s played at least 30 minutes.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has really elevated his play this season, thanks in part to two previously unseen aspects of his game. The biggest addition his been his improvement in free throw shooting — a jump from 38.6 last year to 75 percent this season. Not only has that added a few additional points to his average line, it’s allowed him to stay on the court during crucial portions of the game. He’s averaging three additional minutes per game compared to last season and a career-high 2.7 assists per game. Given those additions, its not a huge surprise that he’s posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating this season.
Drummond has a solid matchup today against the Indiana Pacers, who were routinely shredded on the glass last season and are allowing a Plus/Minus of +4.61 to opposing centers this season. He’s been underpriced on DraftKings all season – most centers are, really – and he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent today.
Value
Alex Len has been a solid source of value this season:
He’s always been impressive on a per-minute basis, and he’s gotten the chance to play at least semi-regular minutes early this season. He played 24.5 minutes at center in the Suns’ last game compared to 23.5 for Tyson Chandler, so its possible he’ll continue to be the more valuable asset despite not technically being the starter. It’s also possible Chandler might not play at all — he was just listed as doubtful for tonight’s contest — which would open the door for Len to have a very enticing workload.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside was benched in his last game, which is a risk you always run with him. Whiteside doesn’t always give the most consistent effort – there’s a reason he was out of the league for three years – but it sounds like that will be the extent of the disciplinary action against him. He has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings.
Karl-Anthony Towns leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has a solid matchup with the Golden State Warriors. They’ve allowed a Plus/Minus of +6.95 to opposing centers this season, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 109.5 points ranks second on today’s slate. They are double digit underdogs against the Warriors, which makes him a little risky for cash games, but he has plenty of appeal for GPPs.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
