The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
The days of Russell Westbrook single-handedly deciding slates seem to be in the past. He’s been priced all the way down to $10,200 on FanDuel, which is approximately $3,000 cheaper than his average salary last season. Even at a reduced price point, however, he’s been a disappointment this season:
He has an interesting matchup today against the Sacramento Kings. They’re ranked 28th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 109.8 points per 100 possessions, but they’ve played at the slowest pace in the league. As a result, Westbrook’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.82 on FanDuel ranks just 12th at the PG position. He also has a tough individual matchup against George Hill, who ranked sixth at the PG position in Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season. Still, this is Westbrook: He leads all PGs in median, ceiling, and floor projections. He has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on FanDuel.
Damian Lillard leads the position with a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings but has a difficult matchup today against the Memphis Grizzlies. Still, this price may have gone a little too low on Lillard: PGs with comparable salaries and Bargain Ratings have historically been excellent values:
Value
T.J. McConnell has played at least 25 minutes in five straight games and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.49 over that time frame. His price has stayed reasonable at just $4,800 on DraftKings. That said, he has a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz. Given his average of 1.00 fantasy points per minute, however, he should still have a chance to provide value.
Fast Break
Many expected Kemba Walker to take on a bigger piece of the Charlotte offense with Nic Batum sidelined to start the season, but the opposite has been true so far: Kemba’s current usage rate of 25.9 percent is roughly 3.5 percent lower than it was last year. He hasn’t had a usage rate above 24.5 percent in any of his last three games, which has resulted in a significant salary decrease on both sites. He should get back to dominating the ball at a higher rate moving forward; when he does, he will likely be a value at his current salary.
J.J. Barea is in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Washington Wizards. He has a pace differential (paceD) of +5.5, and Barea has historically done well in comparable pace-up situations:
He doesn’t typically play a ton of minutes, but the minutes he gets are impactful: He’s second on the team with a usage rate of 27.6 percent. He’s in play on a night that seems light on value options at the moment.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Bradley Beal has had some monster performances recently and is coming off a 52.25 fantasy point outing in his last game. The big caveat, of course, is that John Wall missed that game, and Wall is probable to rejoin the lineup tonight. Unsurprisingly, Beal has not had the same fantasy impact when sharing the court with Wall this season:
The Wizards also have a tough matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who are playing at the sixth-slowest pace this season and have allowed an average Plus/Minus of -0.38 to opposing SGs. Assuming Wall is active, it’s going to be tough for Beal to pay off his elevated salary.
Victor Oladipo is another player who has seen a teammate recently return to the court, but the addition of Myles Turner to the lineup has yet to hurt his fantasy production:
He leads the SG position with a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
It’s a pretty good day for SGs. Sometimes I struggle to find one ‘stud’ option; today I’m struggling to keep it to three. D’Angelo Russell deserves some recognition for his play. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.45 on FanDuel over his last three games, yet his salary has decreased by $700 from its peak. This is the second leg of a road back-to-back, but his production has not historically suffered much in those situations:
The Nets are fourth on the slate with an implied team total of 109.75 points, and Russell has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel.
Value
Donovan Mitchell is looking like a potential star in Utah, but that doesn’t mean Rodney Hood should be an afterthought. He’s still averaging a career-high 26.1 percent usage rate and played 35 minutes in their last competitive game. He’s another SG who is more appealing on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
The Nuggets lead the slate with an implied team total of 121.25 points, and Gary Harris has seen his price decrease after a string of recent poor performances. As long as this game stays close – which isn’t a guarantee given that the Nuggets are 11.5-point favorites – Harris should play 30-plus minutes in what figures to be an excellent offensive environment.
Fast Break
Given all the big names at the position today, some of these options are going to be overlooked. One possible candidate for lower ownership is Khris Middleton, who has seen at least 38 minutes in three of his last four games. He gets to face the Cavs defense today, which has been getting shredded all season: They rank dead last in defensive efficiency and have allowed a Plus/Minus of +5.11 to opposing SGs on DraftKings.
Like his teammate, C.J. McCollum has a tough matchup today against the Memphis Grizzlies. While Lillard will likely draw the defense of Mike Conley, McCollum will likely see a much more friendly matchup against rookie Dillon Brooks. He’s priced at just $6,900 on DraftKings, which has historically been a profitable price tag for him:
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo has failed to return value in each of his last four games, dropping his salary from $12,500 on 10/31 to $10,800 today. He’s struggled with some tough defenses recently, but that shouldn’t be the case today against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Giannis shredded them for 63 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season, and the Cavs have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +7.85 to opposing SFs this season. It’s going to be tough to avoid him on DraftKings, where he comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
LeBron James has been excellent recently, and he’s on his way toward potentially leading the league in minutes per game for the second straight year. That said, he’s been priced up to $11,400 on DraftKings, which is a difficult salary for even someone as great as LeBron to consistently pay off.
Given their length on the defensive end of the court and strong wing defenders like Middleton and Giannis, it’s no surprise that LeBron has struggled in this matchup. He will likely have lower ownership than the other stud options given his salary – which definitely increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) – but there will be better spots for The King.
Value
Wilson Chandler continues to play steady minutes for the Nuggets, but he’s yet to really become a factor in the offense this season. His usage rate is way down, and as a result he’s averaging a paltry 0.61 fantasy points per minute. Tonight’s game against the Nets, however, might be too good of a spot to pass: Even players with low usage rates have historically been excellent values when combined with a comparable salary, projected minutes count, and implied team total:
Fast Break
Paul George leads all players with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has a Consistency Rating of 88 percent as a member of the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are 10.5-point favorites against the Sacramento Kings, but it should be a good matchup for George assuming he sees full minutes: The Kings have allowed a Plus/Minus of +2.67 to opposing SFs this season.
Robert Covington has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings, where he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.25 through his first nine games this season. He’s in a brutal spot against the Utah Jazz, although the Jazz have not exactly been the same team defensively this season, ranking ‘just’ 10th in defensive efficiency.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis has been wonderful this season outside of the game he didn’t finish: He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 88 percent and average Plus/Minus of +1.87 despite having one of the highest salaries every time he’s on the slate. He gets a nice matchup today against the Indiana Pacers, who were one of the worst rebounding teams in the league last season. This year, they’re allowing an average Plus/Minus of +5.43 to the PF position, and this game has the third-highest total of the day at 218 points.
Blake Griffin isn’t exactly priced like a stud at $8,400 on FanDuel, but he’s played like one recently, averaging 43.83 FanDuel points per game over his last three contests. Part of the reason for the salary decrease is the difficult matchup against the Spurs, but Griffin has historically done well against San Antonio:
This may not be your father’s Spurs team either: They currently rank 12th in defensive efficiency after finishing first in 2016-17.
Value
Domantas Sabonis has been ruled out for the Pacers today, which could lead to an increase in value for Thaddeus Young. He’s seen a nice bump in both usage and production with Sabonis off the court this season:
He’s played at least 36 minutes in each of the last three games, which gives him a really solid minutes floor for cash games.
Zach Randolph may be old, but he can still get buckets. He’s leading the starting unit with a usage rate of 26.2 percent, and his average of 0.91 fantasy points per minute means he shouldn’t have to play a ton to pay off his $4,500 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.62 on FanDuel this season, where his $7,900 salary is as low as it has been since the first week of the year. He’s averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute this season, and his usage rate of 28.1 percent ranks just outside the top 20.
Kristaps Porzingis has been absurdly good this season and has gotten it done at both ends of the court: He’s scored at least 30 points in seven of nine games, while his average of 2.74 steals + blocks trails only Brow’s mark at the position. He has as much upside as anyone on the slate, evidenced by his 68 fantasy point explosion in his last game.
Greg Monroe has been shipped out of Milwaukee as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade, which should cement John Henson’s place in the rotation. He’s averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute, thanks mainly to his blocked shot prowess, and he’s played at least 27 minutes in three of his last four games.
Center
Studs
DeMarcus Cousins has been the top stud on virtually every slate he’s been a part of this season:
He continues to dominate the usage for the New Orleans Pelicans, with his 32.6 percent usage rate ranking sixth in the league. Cousins has a solid matchup today against the Pacers, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.95 to opposing centers on the year.
Values
Steven Adams was dreadful in his last game, scoring only 12.3 FanDuel points over 31 minutes. Prior to that, however, he had been excellent, scoring at least 29.6 FanDuel points in six straight games. He has an outstanding matchup today against the Sacramento Kings: Willie Cauley-Stein ranked just 40th among centers in DRPM last season, and the Kings have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +7.06 to the position this season.
Pau Gasol has had a much greater fantasy impact after the injury to King Joffrey Lauvergne:
His $5,700 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 75 percent, which is a surprisingly high mark given that centers are typically significantly better values on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Kevin Love leads the position with a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’s officially probable after leaving his last game early and being hospitalized, but as long as he’s active he still figures to see a benefit from the injury to Tristan Thompson.
Rudy Gobert has been a major disappointment this season, but he has a wonderful matchup today against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have allowed a Plus/Minus of +5.67 to opposing centers this season. This is also an extreme pace-up spot for the Jazz: Their paceD of +7.3 is the top mark on the slate.
Good luck!
