The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving hasn’t exactly had the impact most were expecting after arriving in Boston, averaging fewer points per game and a lower usage rate than he did playing next to LeBron James. That said, he has an outstanding matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks, who are allowing a Plus/Minus of +5.95 to opposing PGs on DraftKings. Their struggle against PGs isn’t exactly surprising: Dennis Schroder ranked 74th out of 79 qualifiers in DRPM last season.
The only concern with Irving is that this game is on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, although he has historically seen only a slight dip in production in those situations:
He has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings.
Values
The Suns and Nets are facing off for the second time this season, which should lead to a lot of fantasy goodness (see the headline above). This game leads the slate with an over/under of 234 points, thanks in part to the fact that both of these teams rank in the top-two in pace and bottom-five in defensive efficiency. Basically, everyone projected to see at least 25 minutes in this game is going to be in play for fantasy purposes:
Mike James exploded for 46.10 FanDuel points in their previous meeting and has been a productive player overall, averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute.
Tyler Johnson has seen his minutes slowly creep up this season, hitting the 30-minute mark twice in his last three games. He’s quite cheap on FanDuel, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Stephen Curry is the highest-priced PG on today’s slate, costing a season-high $9,600 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel. He’s been awesome so far this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.08 over his first 10 games, but he has a brutal matchup today against the Miami Heat. They’re allowing a Plus/Minus of -1.82 to opposing PGs this season, and the Warriors’ pace differential (paceD) of -4.6 is the worst mark on today’s slate.
The Heat are typically a slow-paced team, but one Miami player who enjoys pace-up games is Goran Dragic. He has historically done well in games with a comparable paceD:
The Heat are massive 15.5-point underdogs, however, so there’s always the concern that he could see less minutes in a potential blowout.
Shooting Guard
Studs
D’Angelo Russell has SG-eligibility on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He has thrived as a member of the Nets this season, averaging 21.1 points per game on a usage rate of over 34 percent. He scored over 45 fantasy points in only 28 minutes in his first matchup with the Suns, which isn’t surprising given their Opponent Plus/Minus mark of +8.94.
Devin Booker has been the man in Phoenix with Eric Bledsoe on the sidelines, averaging just under 40 fantasy points per game on DraftKings in games without him this season:
His usage rate of 28.7 percent is not quite as high as Russell’s, but it would still represent a career-high for him. His average of 1.11 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings trails only Curry’s among SG-eligible players on today’s slate.
Value
Caris LeVert has seen his salary decrease by $700 on DraftKings over his last four games, and his current salary of $4,700 results in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He’s still seeing around 28 minutes a night but has shot a horrific 28.2 percent from the field over those contests. He’s due for positive regression, and this spot against the Suns should provide ample opportunities for that.
Fast Break
Marcus Smart is coming off a monster game against the Orlando Magic, scoring 41 fantasy points in just 29 minutes of playing time. He’s always a threat for a big game given his proclivity for steals and blocks, and removing Marcus Morris from the rotation could open up a few additional minutes for Smart in this contest. He has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings.
Klay Thompson has historically provided the most value among the Warriors regulars in games where they’ve been favored by at least 15 points:
He tends to start in the fourth quarter while the majority of the other starters are resting, which gives him a slightly higher minutes floor in these situations. He should be owned at a significantly lower rate than both Russell and Booker, which definitely increases his value in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant stands out in his own tier on FanDuel, where he’s the only SF on today’s slate priced above $6,200. He’s posted a 90 percent Consistency Rating to start the season, which is in line with his 12-month mark of 88 percent. He leads all SFs in both usage projection (28.13 percent) and defensive impact (2.6 steals + blocks), which is a deadly combination for fantasy basketball purposes. There are very few studs on today’s slate, so pairing Durant with some of the cheaper options from the Brooklyn/Phoenix game will likely be a very popular strategy.
T.J. Warren may not be priced like a ‘stud’ at $6,200 on FanDuel and $5,700 on DraftKings, but he sure has been playing like one recently. He’s actually been the biggest beneficiary from the Bledsoe situation this season, leading the team in usage, fantasy points per game, and Plus/Minus in the seven games without him:
Brooklyn has unsurprisingly been terrible against SFs this season: Their Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.50 on DraftKings is the worst mark at the position on today’s slate.
Value
Taurean Prince has played heavy minutes this season in games where the Hawks have managed to stay competitive. He’s been a larger-than-expected contributor on the offensive end of the court – his usage rate of 22.2 percent ranks fourth on the team – resulting in an average of 0.83 fantasy points per minute this season. The big concern with Prince today is his matchup against the Celtics, who rank first in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
DeMarre Carroll has found new life with the Brooklyn Nets this season:
He’s routinely playing 30-plus minutes a night and is averaging over a fantasy point per minute.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green leads the PF position with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings but has a tough matchup today against the Miami Heat. Last season, no team allowed a lower Plus/Minus to opposing PFs than the Heat:
He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of just 70 percent to start the season, which further limits his appeal as anything other than a GPP play.
Value
Trevor Booker is questionable for today’s game, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson saw a season-high 37 minutes without Booker in his last game. In general, RHJ has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Booker off the court this season:
It will be tough to avoid him if Booker is out for today’s matchup with the Suns, especially on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
It hasn’t taken John Collins long to make an impact at the NBA level. He’s been especially impressive as a rebounder, averaging a stout 14.4 boards per 36 minutes, and that’s been reflected in his average of 1.23 fantasy points per minute. He’s played at least 24 minutes in three of his last four games, and that’s all he really needs to be a value at his $5,000 salary on DraftKings.
Luke Babbitt may not be a good basketball player, but even poor players can be values if they’re going to play 40-plus minutes. That’s exactly what happened in the Hawks’ last game thanks to the injuries to Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala. Both players are expected to miss today’s contest as well, so the door is open for Babbitt to earn another start and potentially see another heavy workload.
Center
Studs
Hassan Whiteside has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings and has an interesting matchup today against the Warriors. On one hand, this game could very easily turn into a blowout, in which case it will be difficult for any of the Heat starters to return value. On the other hand, the Warriors have shown a vulnerability to opposing centers in the past and are allowing an average Plus/Minus of +7.08 to the position this season. If this game stays close – which is a big if – odds are that Whiteside will have been a big part of the reason why. He has the sixth-highest ceiling projection on today’s slate and is the only one of the top-six players projected for lower than 20 percent ownership.
While Al Horford is $200 more expensive than Whiteside on DraftKings, he’s $1,200 less expensive on FanDuel. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
Value
Tyson Chandler and Alex Len are splitting minutes at the center position for the Phoenix Suns, but that hasn’t stopped either of them from being solid values recently. Chandler has seen the majority of the minutes, while Len has been slightly more productive on a per-minute basis. Both are in play against a Nets defense that has been destroyed by opposing centers so far this season:
Fast Break
Aron Baynes was seeing close to 20 minutes a night for the Celtics before Morris returned from injury, and he should return to that role tonight against the Hawks. Atlanta is another team that has been shredded by opposing centers so far this season, and Baynes doesn’t need to do much to pay off his $3,500 salary on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
