This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
John Morton had no NFL play-calling experience coming into this year, but he has worked with a number of high-profile coaches such as Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton throughout his career. The Jets have run at the third-slowest neutral pace and have been relatively balanced on offense with the 13th-highest pass play percentage (59.32 percent). After a hot start, the Jets have lost three straight games and sit at 3-5, but they have gone from 30th to 18th in points scored since last season.
Unsurprisingly, the Bills are currently the second-most run-heavy team in the league. Over the last two years, the Bills are second in rushing attempts and first in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and average percentage of rushing plays. In his nine years as a coordinator, never has Rick Dennison coordinated an offense in the bottom-third in pace; the Bills currently operate as the seventh-fastest offense in the league (Football Outsiders).
The over/under predictably underwhelms at 42.5 points — the fourth-lowest mark of the entire 13-game full slate — and the Jets have a pathetic implied total of 19.75 as home underdogs. Per our Week 9 Vegas Report, the Jets are a tough 5-2-1 ATS with a +2.31 Spread Differential — but they’re facing one of the few teams who have outperformed them in that regard, as the Bills are 5-1-1 ATS with a +6.64 mark. That said, there could be value on the under: Bills games have averaged just 38.29 points (-5.36 Over/Under Differential).
At the line of scrimmage, neither team is especially strong at pressuring or protecting the quarterback; both are bottom-six in adjusted sack rate. Players in the TNF game sometimes go over-owned in tournaments, but it’s hard to imagine this game hits the high end of that spectrum outside of LeSean McCoy. If you decide to have exposure to this game, users usually undervalue game stacks. Here are the correlation values (per our NFL Correlations page) for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Tyrod Taylor (based on positions):
The ownership correlation between Taylor, McCoy, Kelvin Benjamin, and Austin-Seferian Jenkins could be lower than expected, despite the fact all of those players have very correlated outcomes.
Tyrod Taylor, QB
He leads all quarterbacks with 1,322 yards rushing since 2015 and has a reliable floor week-to-week relative to his price. He owns the third-highest projected floor on the 13-game Thursday slate and is priced as the 15th-most expensive quarterback on FanDuel. Despite lackluster receiving options, Tygod leads the position in FanDuel Pro Trends and will face a Jets team that has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year and is 24th in pass DVOA.
LeSean McCoy, RB
McCoy’s rushing efficiency is down (3.8 yards per carry vs. 5.4 last year) but he is getting more per-game opportunities (26.1 vs. 19.4 last year). Per our Week 9 Market Share Report, he’s also dominating touches inside the 10-yard line:
The Bills are second in the league with a 51.47 percent rushing rate, and McCoy leads the team with 46 targets and 38 receptions. The Jets currently rank 27th at defending running backs in the passing game (Football Outsiders), and 23.9 percent of Tyrod’s throws over the past year have gone to the position — the third-highest mark on the slate.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR
Benjamin was just traded to Buffalo on Tuesday, so he’s unlikely to be fully ready in terms of the playbook. If he’s active, it’s reasonable to expect a very small package of plays and simple routes, but he could carry tournament appeal as a touchdown threat against a Jets team that has allowed the third-most points to the position this year.
Josh McCown, QB
McCown has averaged 18.08 DraftKings and 17.28 FanDuel PPG since Seferian-Jenkins returned from suspension in Week 3. McCown’s 70.5 completion percent trails only Drew Brees‘ for the league-lead, and he’s hit salary-based expectations on both sites in three-straight games. That said, he’s just outside the top-15 with a 6.9 AY/A. It’s a subpar matchup, as the Bills are 12th in pass DVOA, although McCown could have a pass-heavy game script against the Bills as three-point home dogs.
Matt Forte, RB
Over the last four games, Bilal Powell is the only Jets running back to see more than 10 carries, and it’s happened only once. The volume on the ground isn’t there for this backfield, which takes them out of cash-game consideration, but Forte, in particular, could be intriguing in tournaments given his heavy usage in the passing game. He’s averaged six targets per game over his last three, and, although the Bills have allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points to running backs this year, they have been below-average at defending the position through the air (19th).
Robby Anderson, WR
He exploded for a 6-104-1 stat line on six targets against the Falcons last week and owns the seventh-highest market share of air yards over the last five games in the entire league. His 20 percent target share is intriguing given his price, but he has a poor individual matchup against Tre’Davious White, Pro Football Focus’ fifth-highest rated cornerback.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
His price has gone up $1,800 on FanDuel over the past month, and he still has failed to top 50 yards in any game this year. That said, he’s a clear red zone weapon for this offense with three red zone touchdowns on four targets over his past four games. The Bills have allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to the position, and ASJ owns a 96 percent Bargain Rating there.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
