Last week saw the likes of Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor cash in on juicy matchups, a surprising home setback from Jameis Winston, and one of the wildest shootouts in recent memory courtesy of Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson (sigh). Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brees is currently besting his career averages in numerous categories, including adjusted yards per attempt, completion percentage, and quarterback rating. However, his 4.4 percent touchdown rate is his lowest mark since 2007, and Brees has thrown for three-plus touchdowns just once this season after hitting that mark in half of his games in 2016. Considering he ranks among the top-10 quarterbacks in both red zone and deep-ball pass attempts through eight weeks, Brees’ touchdown total could be due for some positive regression.
The Saints should be able to put Brees in a good position to resume posting gaudy statistical totals, as PFF’s fifth-best offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency has kept Brees clean on 77.3 percent of his throws this season – the third-highest mark in the league. Robert Ayers is the only Buccaneers pass rusher graded higher than 80th by PFF this season, and it’s uncertain if he’ll show his face this week after being chipped straight to hell by 5’11” and 200-pound Christian McCaffrey. Gerald McCoy has racked up the sixth-most pressures among all interior defenders this season, but that hasn’t been enough for the league’s worst defense in adjusted sack rate through eight weeks. Brees has the highest projected ceiling in our Pro Models.
Oakland Raiders (Derek Carr) vs. Miami Dolphins
Carr has thrown for a combined 730 yards and four touchdowns over the past two weeks, thanks in large part to a ridiculous 101 pass attempts. Overall, the Raiders have averaged a league-low 20.8 rush attempts per game, and the return of Marshawn Lynch – averaging the second-fewest yards per carry of his career – isn’t likely to take too much off of Carr’s plate. Thanks in part to his tendency to get rid of the ball quickly, the Raiders’ No. 1 offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency has kept Carr clean on the second-highest percentage of his dropbacks in the league. He’s clearly benefited from playing inferior competition through eight weeks, averaging 303 yards and 2.6 touchdowns in three games against bottom-16 pass defenses in DVOA compared to 186 yards and 1.0 touchdowns in four games against top-16 pass defenses.
Carr certainly has demonstrated the ability to make big plays down the field when given time:
The Dolphins’ defensive line is highlighted by PFF’s No. 2 interior defender Ndamukong Suh, and the ageless Cameron Wake has managed to rank second among all edge rushers in pass-rushing productivity behind only Von Miller. Still, the league’s fifth-worst defense in DVOA against the pass will have their hands full with a Raiders offense that still ranks sixth in overall DVOA despite an inconsistent start. Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see how chalky the Raiders offense ends up being, and consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Amari Cooper and/or Michael Crabtree with Carr in tournaments.
Kansas City Chiefs (Alex Smith) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Smith’s interception-less start to the season has now reached eight weeks, although he’s been a bit less fantastic against the four tougher opponents he’s faced:
It’s not surprising to see Smith struggle against tougher competition; this should be the case with most quarterbacks. Still, Smith has three games of 300-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns this season after having just two such games during his previous 11 seasons. The Cowboys’ 19th-ranked defense in pass DVOA certainly falls in the “Easier D” bucket – but maybe not when they’re fully healthy. With Sean Lee patrolling the middle, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 20.6 PPG (34 games) compared to 28.2 PPG (five games) with him sidelined since 2015. Demarcus Lawrence and David Irving have helped the Cowboys post the league’s eighth-best adjusted sack rate this season, and they face a less-than-formidable challenge in the league’s 16th-best unit in pass-blocking efficiency coming off a physical Monday night game against the Broncos.
Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff) vs. New York Giants
Goff posted his first two games with 250-plus yards and multiple touchdowns from Weeks 3-4, although he’s struggled to offer much fantasy upside since. This isn’t a huge surprise considering he’s faced the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Cardinals over the past three weeks, but the Giants aren’t exactly the get-well treatment the doctor ordered. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth has been a fantastic free agent signing, although he’s been a better run blocker than pass blocker. The Rams don’t have another guard or tackle graded among PFF’s top-40 pass blockers at their positions, which isn’t great against Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon (ankle, questionable):
Janoris Jenkins is suspended for violating team rules, and Todd Gurley certainly remains in play thanks to a gargantuan workload few backs can even dream of. The Rams have called the fifth-fewest pass plays per game this season, and the slate’s third-lowest Vegas total doesn’t inspire much hope for a shootout. Be sure to monitor our industry-leading News Feed for Vernon’s status Sunday.
Honorable Mentions
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston) vs. New Orleans Saints: Winston threw in practice before Friday for the first time in three weeks (per our Injury Dashboard), but his health heading into Sunday is still somewhat in question after his season-worst performance in Week 8. The Saints have a secondary worthy of praise, but they haven’t faced a passing offense ranked higher than 20th in pass DVOA (with the exception of the Brett Hundley-led Packers) since Week 2. Winston has the league’s fourth-best offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency, a necessity considering he’s posted the longest average target distance this season.
- Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz) vs. Denver Broncos: Wentz’s multi-touchdown streak has reached four games, but his performance when missing a key lineman remains concerning. Two of his three worst performances in terms of passing yards and quarterback rating have come with either Lane Johnson or Jason Peters sidelined this season, and Peters’ continued absence could prove to be troublesome against all-world edge rusher Von Miller and recently-returned Shane Ray, who ranked 19th in pass-rushing productivity among all edge defenders last season.
- Houston Texans (Tom Savage) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Watson will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn ACL, so the offense will once again be handed over to Savage. He’s failed to throw a touchdown in 105 career pass attempts and has averaged over 7.0 yards per attempt in only one of five games he’s seen significant playing time. Still, Savage gets a Colts defense that has allowed 22.05 DraftKings PPG, a +5.5 Plus/Minus, and a 100 percent Consistency Rating to opposing quarterbacks this season (per our Trends tool). The expected absence of John Simon (stinger, doubtful) won’t help a Colts pass rush that has just one player graded higher than 35th in pass rushing at their position this season by PFF.
- Tennessee Titans (Marcus Mariota) vs. Baltimore Ravens: Mariota will welcome back No. 5 overall pick Corey Davis, and his blend of speed and big-play ability could help Mariota improve career-low marks in yards per attempt and touchdown rate. Mariota should have plenty of time to work behind the league’s second-best offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency against a front seven lacking much of a pass rush beyond nose tackle Brandon Williams, the Ravens’ only interior or edge defender with a pass-rushing productivity score among the top-30 players at their position this season.
