The Timberwolves actually set up pretty well as a stacking option in NBA DFS – they have a wing who ranks within the top 20 in scoring (Wiggins), a frontcourt player who ranks inside the top 10 in rebounds (Towns), and a point guard who ranks inside the top five in assists per game (Rubio).
As always, I will start off by breaking down which stats lead to fantasy production for the Wolves’ main options:
As I alluded to in the intro, this works out pretty nicely with each of the top three options gaining more than 45% of their fantasy production from a single stat, and the stat is different for each player. The main concern with stacking in NBA DFS is that players are going to cannibalize each other’s production, but in this case, it seems like less of a concern. In my opinion, it’s pretty easy to imagine scenarios where two or even all three of them are playing well in the same game.
The most obvious stack involves Rubio with either Towns or Wiggins. Using NBA Wowy, we can see that Rubio has assisted close to half of all field goals made by either Karl-Anthony Towns or Andrew Wiggins. I’ll also note that the second-leading assister for each player is the other member of the big three. Assists for the Timberwolves are very narrowly distributed in their starting lineup.
With that in mind, let’s see how each player fared during Ricky Rubio’s five best fantasy performances from this season:
(Plus/Minus is displayed with fantasy points total in parenthesis)
In only two of 10 results did a player finish below their implied point total (both Wiggins). Conversely, Rubio has only exceeded his implied point total in 4-of-9 games where Towns has gone over 50 fantasy points. In games where Wiggins has exceeded 40 fantasy points, Towns and Rubio have each exceeded their projection 4-of-7 times.
When it comes to the Wolves in DFS, it all starts with Rubio. If you think he is going to have a good game, it might make sense to tack on one of his teammate. Not only have the results been good to date this season, but it makes sense logically. If nearly half of Rubio’s fantasy points are coming from assists, and if around half of his assists are going to Towns or Wiggins, there’s a good chance the stack will hit when Rubio plays well.
Even using all three together is a move that has had some success in 2015-2016, though this move is obviously much riskier. The smartest play if you’re going to stack Wolves is using Rubio and Towns together. In terms of general scoring, Towns averages a respectable 16.7 points per game. Where he excels though is in the pick and roll, a category where he has scored the seventh-most points in the NBA this year. In fact, over 22% of all Towns’ points this year have come as the roll man off of pick and roll. This is a style of offense that is very conducive for the ball handler (Rubio) to rack up assists.
One last combination to look at is Gorgui Dieng with KAT. Much has been made this season about Sam Mitchell’s willingness or unwillingness to play his two talented bigs at the same time. Although they have only shared the court for a total of 438 minutes this season, 188 of those minutes have come within the last two weeks. I setup a custom Trend to gauge their performance over that time period.
By using the Game Number filter (Games 43-present) and filtering by team, we can review their production side by side. The results have been monstrous:
In seven of their past 10 games, Dieng and Towns have both exceeded value. Now, their prices are starting to reach levels where you have to really think about the matchup, but as long as Coach Mitchell is willing to play the two together, Dieng and Towns both look like they are going to thrive for fantasy purposes.
