The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a five-game main slate starting at 6:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
John Wall has posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.67 on DraftKings over his first five games, and DraftKings has responded by lowering his salary to a season-low $9,700 for today’s contest against the Kings. The Kings have played at the fifth-slowest pace so far this season, but they currently rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency and have allowed an average of 115.5 points over their last two games. The Kings also allowed the second-highest Plus/Minus to comparably-priced PGs last season:
There’s a chance that Wall’s running mate, Bradley Beal, could be suspended for today’s contest. If that were to happen, it’d be hard to pass on Wall; he had a usage rate of 42 percent last season with Beal off the court and averaged roughly 50 fantasy points per 36 minutes on DraftKings:
Stephen Curry has been an excellent value on DraftKings so far this season:
His salary has increased by $300 since the start of the season, but his $9,100 salary on DraftKings still comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He has an excellent individual matchup today against Reggie Jackson, whose Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) of -2.94 ranked just 73rd out of 77 qualifiers at PG last season. Curry’s Upside Rating of 52 percent over the past year ranks first among all of today’s PGs, while his Consistency Rating of 90 is tied for third.
Values
De’Aaron Fox has started the season with a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He’s played at least 25 minutes in all five games this season and currently leads the Kings with a usage rate of 27.2 percent. Historically, PGs with comparable salaries, Bargain Ratings, and usage rates have been excellent values:
There’s no guarantee that Jarrett Jack will draw another start for the Knicks today, but it seems likely after Jack led them to their first win of the season on Friday. If he does start he’ll likely see around 25 minutes again, which would give an opportunity to pay off his modest $4,000 price tag on DraftKings. He’ll have an excellent matchup if Derrick Rose is active – Rose was 69th in DRPM among PGs last season – and Cleveland currently ranks just 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray is the ultimate wild card at the PG position: His minutes have fluctuated between 20 and 33 throughout the first five games of the season. He has an excellent matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league to start the season. They’ve also allowed the third-highest Plus/Minus on DraftKings to opposing PGs, so this could be a potential blow-up spot if Murray gets the minutes today.
Kemba Walker is taking on the Orlando Magic, which makes him another PG with an excellent matchup. The Magic allowed the seventh-highest Plus/Minus to opposing PGs last season, and D.J. Augustin posted the second-worst DRPM among qualifiers at PG in 2016-17.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position lacks true top-end talent on today’s slate, especially if Beal gets suspended for the fight he instigated on Friday against the Warriors. If he’s active, however, he should find himself in a good spot against the Sacramento Kings. Over the past two seasons, the Kings have been an excellent matchup for SGs:
Values
Tim Hardaway Jr. continues to pop in our FanDuel Models, despite the fact that he’s been horrid over his first four games:
Still, he’s averaging a career-high 12.3 shot attempts per game; he’s been plagued by a 26.5 percent field goal rate. He played 37 minutes in his last game against the Nets and seems like a strong candidate for positive regression at some point in the future.
The Nuggets possess an interesting pair of SGs in Gary Harris and Will Barton. Harris is the safer of the two options: He routinely plays 30-35 minutes a night and has a Consistency Rating of 80 percent over the past year. Barton, meanwhile, offers more upside given his average of 0.93 fantasy points per minute; he’s played at least 28 minutes in every game this season. Barton has one of the highest Bargain Ratings at the position on FanDuel at 93 percent, and both should enjoy the uptempo matchup against the Brooklyn Nets.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson will likely be a popular player on this slate given the dearth of quality options and his potential for a big game. Still, he has a tough matchup against Avery Bradley, who has allowed an average Plus/Minus of -2.8 so far this season.
Speaking of Bradley, this could be a +EV spot for him despite the fact that the Pistons are on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back. This is a pace-up spot against the Warriors, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +5.1, and Bradley has historically been a solid value in comparable pace-up situations:
Small Forward
Studs
What the heck is going on in Cleveland? The Cavs were blown out Saturday night by the Pelicans and will play the second leg of a back-to-back against the Knicks tonight. That said, whatever the issue is early in the season, it has nothing to do with the play of LeBron James. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.18 through his first six games and has absorbed a larger role on offense with Rose missing the last four games. Rose is questionable for today’s contest – although it seems like he’s getting closer to playing after going through shootaround on Saturday – and if he were to play it would make it tough for LeBron to return value at his current price tag.
Kevin Durant is coming off a monster game against the Wizards on Friday and currently has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and SFs with similar Pro Trends, Bargain Ratings, and salaries have historically been solid values:
Values
Today’s slate is packed with value options at the SF position. DeMarre Carroll is currently questionable for the Brooklyn Nets, and if he were to sit it would open up approximately 27 minutes of playing time for the remaining wing players. The two main candidates to absorb these minutes would be Allen Crabbe and Caris LeVert. Crabbe has had his minutes limited a bit early in the season but remains an excellent shooter: He’s 37.5 percent from 3-point range this season and was at a ridiculous 44.4 percent last year. His 86 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel leads the SF position. LeVert, meanwhile, has been one of the Nets’ best players this season and has seen one of the biggest spikes in usage and production with Carroll off the court:
He has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings.
Stanley Johnson has played 31 minutes in each of his last two contests and currently costs just $3,900 on DraftKings. He should see a comparable number of minutes today against a Warriors team that likes to play small. Players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically been excellent values:
Fast Break
The Nuggets have been a major disappointment to start the season, but today’s game against the Nets could be a spot for them to get on track. They currently lead the slate with an implied team total of 112.75 points, and the majority of their players have seen their salaries decrease since the start of the season. One of those players is Wilson Chandler, who is currently priced at just $4,700 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings. He’s historically provided awesome production with a comparable price tag:
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis has scored 30 or more points in three of four games this season, resulting in at least 46 fantasy points on FanDuel in each of those contests. His usage has jumped from 24.3 to 32.7 percent this season, and he hasn’t sacrificed anything in terms of efficiency given all the extra volume. His salary has increased by $900 on FanDuel since the start of the year, but no one on today’s slate offers more upside at the PF position.
Values
You know you’re a bad team when you’re looking to rest players six games into the season. Zach Randolph will not play today for the Kings after what must’ve been an exhausting 29 minutes on Thursday, which should open the door for Skal Labissiere to absorb a larger role in the offense. So far this season, Skal has averaged just under 33 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Randolph off the court:
He should be able to pay off his salary of $4,400 on DraftKings relatively easily given his projected minutes.
Quincy Acy has been ruled out for today’s contest, which will open up approximately 17 minutes for the Nets at the PF position. Those minutes will likely be split between Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Trevor Booker, both of whom have shown flashes at different times this season. Hollis-Jefferson is the better value on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent, while Booker owns a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap has been dreadful on FanDuel to start the season:
That said, his salary has been reduced to $6,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, and he has his best matchup of the young season today against the Brooklyn Nets. It’s a bit concerning that he’s playing only 28-30 minutes a night at the moment, but he’s too talented to continue to play this poorly.
Mike Scott has played at least 24 minutes in each of the last two games for the Washington Wizards, and he’s a guy who has never been afraid to shoot; he owns a career usage rate of 20.9 percent. He’s almost the dead minimum at $3,100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Center
Studs
Like the majority of the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has struggled so far in the early season. Still, this is one of the most skilled big men in the game: His average of 1.35 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel is the top mark among centers on today’s slate. He’s been priced down to just $8,700 on FanDuel for today’s matchup against the Nets, and Jokic has historically been a major value when comparably-priced:
He’s played at least 30 minutes in every game this season, which has historically been the only thing to stop him from dominating; it’s only a matter of time until he picks it up.
Andre Drummond has been playing excellent basketball recently, scoring at least 40 fantasy points on DraftKings in four straight games. Despite his success, DraftKings has lowered his salary by $600 in advance of his matchup with the Warriors, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Given the decrease, you would think that Drummond has historically struggled with the Warriors, but that hasn’t really been the case:
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein is another big man for the Kings who could see increased minutes with Randolph on the sidelines. He’s pretty affordable at just $5,400 on DraftKings, where he’s averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute.
Fast Break
Despite splitting minutes fairly evenly with Ian Mahinmi at the end of last season, Marcin Gortat has dominated the minutes at center for the Wizards this season. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.19 on DraftKings through his first five games and has an exploitable matchup today against the Sacramento Kings.
Nikola Vucevic has cooled down a bit after a torrid start to the season, which has brought his salary back down to earth at $7,200 on DraftKings. Elfrid Payton is likely out again for today’s contest, which should open the door for Vucevic to command a large portion of the Magic offense:
That said, he does have a tough matchup against Dwight Howard, who ranked 15th among centers in DRPM last season.
Speaking of Howard, here’s what he’s done so far this season:
That said, he’ll cost you: He has seen the largest price increase among all centers on both sites.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
