The weekly Funnel Defense Ratings uses advanced data to analyze situations in which teams are more likely to pass or run than they usually do. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
A couple weeks ago I introduced a new funnel metric; see that piece for the explanation in how I created it. The metric has some hits and misses, and there are a couple reasons why it’s not completely predictive. First, I don’t incorporate Vegas data (although I’ll include it in the ratings table below), mostly because I don’t have exact numbers on historical run/pass ratios based on Vegas spreads and implied team totals. That’s a large project perhaps for the offseason. Second, and this is very important to remember, some teams simply refuse to funnel production to either part of their offense. We saw this with the Steelers a couple weeks ago: Although their opponent, the Jags, boast an elite secondary and easily the best pass DVOA in the league, Ben Roethlisberger chucked it 55 times.
That’s likely an underappreciated part of predicting games and script: How stubborn an offense will be even if the data suggests they should adapt. Here’s a chart of each team’s run/pass DVOA differential and their run/pass play ratio:
Some teams are more pass-heavy than they should be simply because they’re behind in games (see: Browns). That said, there’s also something to be said for teams who know they lack pass-catching and -throwing talent and run early and often, regardless of whether they’re facing a high-powered offense. The Bears have been an extreme example of this in recent weeks: They were 2.5-point home dogs in Week 7 facing a talented Carolina offense, and they ran the ball 26 times compared to just seven pass attempts. In Week 6, they gave 14 carries to pass-catching back Tarik Cohen and a whopping 36 carries to workhorse Jordan Howard. The Bears, for all their faults, know their strengths and weaknesses and adopt their game plan accordingly. If only every team was so capable.
I say all of this to help paint the picture of what funnel ratings are trying to help with: predicting run/pass percentages. The metric shines a light, but Vegas lines, coaching tendencies, and other factors are important, too. Like we do in all of our sports models, weigh each factor instead of focusing solely on one thing.
Alright, onto the Week 8 funnel ratings:
Notable Potential Run Funnels
The team with the highest run funnel rating — by far — is the Chicago Bears, who have the strongest offensive run rating and face a New Orleans Saints squad that actually funnels production to the run game. The biggest issue is the spread, as Chicago is a large nine-point road dog in the Coors Field of Fantasy Football. That said, it’s highly likely the Bears will slow the game down and force their game plan; unless they get down by three or four scores early, they’ll probably keep running. Further, it’s not like the game script risk isn’t priced in: Howard is currently projected for only nine to 12 percent and five to eight percent ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Few backs in his price range get the work he does, and it’s clear the Bears are committed to featuring him and Cohen. As a tournament play, what more could you want than that?
The next two teams with the highest run funnel ratings are the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins; the latter just played on Thursday night and performed terribly yet again. The Texans, meanwhile, could go away from the Seattle funnel, as RB Lamar Miller hasn’t seen 20 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in two straight games. That said, he’s currently projected for just zero to one percent ownership, and it’s not like QB Deshaun Watson is throwing 40-plus times per game. Watson’s fantasy production has largely come from his efficiency: He has 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions over the past three games on between 29-34 pass attempts in each outing.
Unfortunately, outside of the Bears, there doesn’t seem to be a strong run funnel situation in Week 8.
Notable Potential Pass Funnels
We do, however, have some strong potential pass funnels, highlighted by the Minnesota Vikings and LA Chargers at the top. The Vikings are the London Game, although this match has the lowest Vegas total of the week at 38 points. Minnesota is on the good side of that, currently implied for 24 points, but they’ve averaged just 16.6 PPG with QB Case Keenum, per Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 8: London Game Vegas Report. That’s not ideal, but the point remains that the Browns have been excellent defensively against the run this season, ranking second in DVOA, and miserable against the pass, ranking 26th. If there were a game for the Vikings to go more pass-heavy and funnel opportunities to guys like Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph, it would be this one. Of course, you’ll have to play in the early slates on Sunday if you want to bet on that happening.
The Chargers are in the main slate, and they’re certainly set up to pass against a New England team that isn’t particularly great against either the run or pass, ranking 26th and 28th, despite their reputation lately. Given those DVOA marks, the Patriots aren’t a strong funnel defense either way, but the Chargers have such a high offensive pass rating that they should be unencumbered in their goal of throwing a ton on Sunday. This sets up beautifully for Keenan Allen, who leads the team with a 28.47 percent target share over their last four games. The Patriots are 30th in DVOA this season against WR1s and 29th in production given up in the middle of the field. Given all of those factors, Allen has one of the highest target ceilings among all players in Week 8.
Good luck this week!
