The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Jameis Winston
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Given that the Bucs have lost their last three games, it’s hard to believe that Jameis Winston leads all starting quarterbacks with a 53 percent success rate (Sharp Football Stats). In his last four complete starts, Winston has averaged 344 yards passing while throwing nine total touchdowns, leading an offense that ranks seventh in offensive Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Part of his recent success is due to his stellar offensive line, which is sixth in pass protection with only a 4.4 percent adjusted sack rate. Additionally, the Bucs defense ranks 32nd in DVOA and has forced Winston to play from behind on 62 percent of plays. Winston’s Week 8 matchup with Carolina’s 12th-ranked defense (DVOA) seems daunting, but Winston put up 300-plus yards on the road against Minnesota and Buffalo, which have the league’s eighth- and tenth-ranked units. Carolina’s is probably not as good as its DVOA. The Panthers have done well against lesser passers, but Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Carson Wentz averaged 244 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns. Carolina’s secondary has only one interception on the entire year (in Week 1 at San Francisco).
Winston is favored at home, and the game’s total has risen by two points since opening.
RB: Matt Forte
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
In the last two weeks, Matt Forte has led all Jets running backs in snaps, touches, and targets. He’s averaged a 54 percent snap rate while compiling 13 targets, 16 carries, and 163 total yards. He hasn’t found the end zone all year, but his home matchup with the Falcons promises to be the best he’s seen to date. The Falcons rush defense ranks 30th in DVOA and in the last month has allowed 133 rush yards per game, third most in the NFL. What’s not appealing is that Forte is in a time share with Bilal Powell. The two aging backs have been nicked up and missed time in 2017, but they’ve been productive, combining for the 17th-ranked rush offense in the league. The tandem is responsible for an average of 172 total yards of offense per game (fifth) in the last month and nearly 30 DraftKings points per game.
Forte offers low ownership and much needed salary relief on a slate where pricing is tight and studs are plenty.
RB: Dion Lewis
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
We may find this hard to believe, but Dion Lewis’s Week 7 rushing performance against the Falcons was the second best of his career. In fact in 2017 Lewis is on pace to have his best rushing season yet. He is averaging a career high 5.3 yards per carry and only 56 yards shy of besting his total rush yards from 2016. It seems likely 2017 is going to be the best statistical year of his career, too, given his bump in workload. In Week 6, he earned more carries than Mike Gilislee and led all backs in Week 7 with 13 touches and 76 yards. Lewis is unlikely to see the volume of a real three-down back, as Gilislee, James White, and even Rex Burkhead have traded series throughout the year, but this may be the week to capitalize on a changing of the guard in Foxborogh. The Patriots are -7.5 home favorites against a Chargers defense that has the second-highest mark in adjusted line yards (4.79), and Lewis has an offensive line that leads the NFL in adjusted line yards (4.99). What’s been especially troubling for the Chargers rush defense, though, is the propensity to give up the big play. They’ve allowed the second-most runs over 20 yards (seven) and the most runs over 40 yards (three). Lewis has the ability to create large chunks of yards by making people miss, too. According to PlayerProfiler, Lewis leads the league in juke rate and yards created per carry. By these measures, Lewis is the most elusive back in the NFL on a per-touch basis.
WR: Jamison Crowder
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
The Washington Redskins have four separate players with 30 or more targets in 2017. In five of the team’s six games, a tight end or running back led all pass catchers in receiving yards. It seems unlikely that Jamison Crowder will emerge as a lead pass catcher in Week 7, but he was second on the team in receptions in 2016 and is second in targets since returning from the bye week. He hasn’t accounted for much yardage and has a mediocre 6.2-yard average depth of target, but his matchup with Dallas’ Orlando Scandrick is the most fantasy-friendly for any of the Washington wideouts. Of all the Cowboys corners, Scandrick has allowed the most of fantasy points per route run as well as yards per route covered (Pro Football Focus). In 2016, Crowder played against Scandrick twice, averaging 16.3 DraftKings points. In fact, through the past two seasons Crowder has been excellent in divisional matchups with 11.53 DraftKings points and a +3.21 Plus/Minus.
TE: Jason Witten
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Jason Witten‘s offseason workouts with Geico seem to be paying dividends. He is second on the Cowboys in total targets (42) with a 20 percent target share. Those seven targets per game are sixth among tight ends in 2017 and have helped him score an average of 12.7 DraftKings points per game. There are only five other tight ends in the league averaging double-digit points per game. Witten’sred zone usage has been especially impressive. In every game this year except for one, Witten has seen a red zone target. He’s scored three total touchdowns and topped 50 yards receiving in four games. The Redskins have struggled mightily with the tight end position in 2017, and in the last month they’ve yielded 20 DraftKings points per game, six receptions, and nearly 90 receiving yards to the position. He’s one of the highest-rated right ends in our Models.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
