It’s a dream slate, really. No football to distract until tomorrow, studs all around, values to sift through, and even a record-total that need be discussed at length (don’t worry, we’ll get there). With 10 games on hand, let’s just dive right into the breakdown.

All Day

Portland Trailblazers at Houston Rockets (-5.5)

Implied Total: 106.3 – 111.3, O/U: 217.5

If participating in the “All Day” slate rather than the nine-game “Main”, there’s absolutely no getting away from this one. With the second-highest implied total of any matchup this evening, you would almost certainly have to have some kind of exposure to it in order to keep your lineups alive beyond 7pm ET.

For starters, Terrence Jones has already been ruled out. Though Montrezl Harrell is set to return, it remains a great spot for Dwight Howard in cash as he’s ensured to log upwards of 30 minutes yet again with only Clint Capela spelling him. Josh Smith, though also in a favorable position off the bench, would remain strictly a tournament play due to his Projected Plus/Minus of -4.5. And if you’re still looking for an out-of-the-box tournament play, just trust me: as long as Corey Brewer continues receiving minutes (he’s averaging 27.7 as a starter), you won’t be the only one on him. Capela remains someone of zero-interest as he remains overpriced (implied to score 24.01 points) at DraftKings — he’s failed to meet expectations by -5.53 points over his last 10 performances.

With Noah Vonleh doubtful, I don’t mind going back to the Meyers Leonard-well once more. Houston has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers in the entirety of this slate, putting all of Leonard (projected floor of 6.3 points), Mason Plumlee (3.5 points), and, to a lesser extent, Ed Davis (4.3) in play. When on the court together, note the Rockets also have an advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +1 at the four.

Main

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)

Implied Total: 102.3 – 106.8, O/U: 209

With their known off-ball struggles at the wing, riding a surging Marvin Williams — 5.6 three-point attempts per game over his last six — who’s exceeded expectations by +7.19 in his last 10 performances is more advised than not considering his implied total of only 23.09 points. Though Washington has allowed +2.3 points above salary-based expectations at the point, it should also be noted that Kemba Walker went from having his knee “drained” Wednesday night to logging 36.1 minutes on Friday. If there’s some type of Trend that makes me aware of how players perform under those circumstances in back-to-backs, then please direct them this way.

John Wall is an obvious candidate for cash and tournaments alike (especially when noting his projected floor of 25.7 points), but Bradley Beal remains a great tournament play if handed another start. Exceeding expectations by +3.48 points in his first start since returning from injury last night, Beal eclipsed his restriction of 28 minutes, finishing the evening with 22 points (30.25 DraftKings points) on 31.8 minutes. If assured 30-plus again, there should be no hesitation in rostering him as he’s still implied to score only 26.77 points.

Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers (-3.5)

Implied Total: 100.3 – 103.8, O/U: 204

Fading absurd price points is a nightly task that we’re all accustomed to, but some times the advantage is gained by simply not doing it. For instance: Myles Turner tonight. Though his salary has settled at $6,500 for the second consecutive game, Turner is in a prime bounce-back spot considering his “poor” performance of 24.3 DraftKings points just last night (he was implied to score 28.61). The Pistons have allowed a whopping +2.5 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers as Andre Drummond continues to muck every pick-and-roll he’s forced to defend. Even if Turner were to only meet expectations, it would be perfectly fine in tournaments as his ownership should remain rather low. He’s not in cash considerations due to the off-chance Lavoy Allen comes off the bench for another 35.5 DraftKings points performance.

Averaging 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season, I certainly don’t expect another mirror-image performance from Stanley Johnson (now implied to score 22.63 points). That being said, there’s no need to overthink it. The Pacers have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.8 allowed to small forwards but 1) Johnson is starting at the two, where Indiana has an entirely neutral Opponent Plus/Minus and 2) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope averaged 36.7 DraftKings points in three games against them this season. Move along. Nothing to see here.

New Orleans Pelicans at Cleveland Cavaliers (-9.5)

Implied Total: 100 – 109.5, O/U: 209.5

Despite an incredulously low pace of 94.6 since Tyronn Lue took the reigns, Cleveland’s offensive rating of 110.7 over that time trails only Golden State, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio. The uptick in their efficiency alone is worth having exposure towards their implied total of 109.5 in tonight’s slate.

An opportunity to save salary with Timofey Mozgov ($3,200) would present itself only if Kevin Love (questionable) were absent. If their typical starters suit up, reloading Kyrie Irving isn’t the worst idea – only LeBron James and Love are averaging more DraftKings points for the Cavs since Lue took over. Irving has arguably been the most impressive as of late, exceeding expectations by +6.23 points over his last five. With his salary already up +$100 from where it stood just last night, expect a number over $7K to appear in the coming week. J.R. Smith is also considered a somewhat-strong tournament play as he’s averaged +5.65 DraftKings points above his season average under Lue.

Though the Pelicans are averaging -8 fewer points on the road this season (106.3/98.3), exposure towards Anthony Davis is fine (but not mandatory in this slate). The Cavaliers have limited opposing power forwards to -1.0 points below expectations, but our models still show Davis with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at his position. He’s also averaged +3.78 points above expectations when the Pelicans have opened as double-digit dogs over the last two seasons – Cleveland opened as 10-point favorites.

Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

Implied Total: 102.3 – 103.8, O/U: 206

On one hand, it goes against everything we know to chase points in Brooklyn’s back court. On the other, both Donald Sloan and Wayne Ellington, who exceeded or met expectations by +5.51 and -0.07 in last night’s beatdown of Sacramento, are yet again priced relatively cheap in a terrific matchup. Philadelphia, after all, has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.1 allowed to point guards, +2 off-ball. The selection won’t be as sneaky as you think – Sloan had a 16% ownership in last night’s Shootaround – but implied to score only 18.95 and 18.03 points, both continue seeing starter’s minutes at a role player’s price. That likely has something to do with their projected floors of 7.5 and 8.4 (keeping them strictly as tournament options).

Over his last 10 games, Brook Lopez has exceeded expectations by an average of +8.39 points. Wind, rain, blowouts –whatever the case, he’s always out there (and quite frankly, always underpriced). Philadelphia has allowed +1.6 points above salary-based expectations at his position, meaning the Lopez-train isn’t likely to stop just yet. He’s an elite option in both cash and tournaments as his projected floor remains the highest of his position.

Don’t look too much into how Philadelphia dispersed minutes in their last game. Despite Ish Smith’s best efforts in the third quarter, single-handedly cutting Washington’s 25-point lead down to nine with 6:12 remaining, Isaiah Canaan still logged far more minutes than can be expected as Robert Covington went 0-for-5 from the field in 19 minutes of play. Although the Nets have allowed +3.0 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers, Smith, who still managed to exceed expectations by +11.43 points last night, remains the only cash play for Philadelphia. If still attempting to target Brooklyn in the paint, however, Nerlens Noel remains the better play over Jahlil Okafor as he’ll assuredly log minutes at both power forward – Brooklyn has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.7 at the four – and center (in their smaller rotations).

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies (-6)

Implied Total: 93.3 – 99.3, O/U: 192.5

Ugh.

Labeled with the second-lowest total of the night, I admittedly see very few reasons to have exposure here, if any. Still, we at least owe it to Jeff Green to mention his recent production. After all, he’s recorded a usage of 27.2 off the bench over his last five games, averaging 36.4 DraftKings points in 30.6 minutes over that span. And, though involved in a lowly overall total, Memphis is personally implied to score a respectable (for them) 99 points. With the Mavericks allowing +0.9 points above salary-based expectations to opposing small forwards, Green need at least be considered in tournaments. Let’s just promise each other never to mention “cash” and his name in the same sentence.

Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3)

Implied Total: 101 – 104, O/U: 205

Last night included, Derrick Rose is now averaging a team-high usage of 32.6 with Jimmy Butler off the court. Assuming the latter is out (he’s currently doubtful), it makes for another great spot as Minnesota has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.7 at the point. This being the second leg of a back-to-back – his salary also increased +$300 in less than 24 hours — certainly tags his cash-exposure with a red flag, but consider he’s exceeded expectations by +11.1 points in his last five games. Bobby Portis should also stay on radars if Pau Gasol (questionable) remains out as he logged 27 minutes against the Nuggets due to their shorthanded front court. It bodes well that Minnesota has allowed +2.3 points above salary-based expectations at his position.

In the most Sam Mitchell-y of Sam Mitchell-esque moves, all of Kevin Martin, Nikola Pekovic, and Kevin Garnett have yet to be officially ruled out despite him stating that all three (and I quote) are ”not close to returning”. In the meantime, exposure remains the same. Karl-Anthony Towns’ salary now implies a score of 35.97, but it’s not the worst spot if Gasol (who’s been surprisingly above-average on defense this season) is out. Despite sitting in crunch-time against the Clippers, Gorgui Dieng also remains a value – now implied to score 26.77 points, note his average of 27.9 DraftKings points without Garnett this season. And finally, if you can pinpoint Zach LaVine’s minutes, than by all means, roster him; he’s exceeded expectations by +2.11 points in his last four games despite logging wonky time (31.4, 25.4, 26.4, 34.4) in that span.

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (-15.5)

Implied Total: 94.3 – 109.8, O/U: 204

Are the Spurs even on a back-to-back? LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard logged their usual 28 and 27 minutes, but little competitive juices flowed in the second half as San Antonio returned from the intermission with a comfortable 62-26 lead. As home favorites of 15 points, I’m more inclined to lean towards the usual process of avoiding Spurs (and all those who oppose them) rather than attempting to roster any standout performances that may cause an assumed blowout. That being said, Boban Marjanovic has exceeded expectations by +1.88 in 15 games that San Antonio has been favored by more than 10 points this season. Also of note (DUMB STAT ALERT!): Since ridding himself of social media following their desecration at the hands of Golden State, Aldridge has exceeded expectations by +7.92 points in his last five games, shooting 61.8% from the field. His shot chart over that time speaks for itself:

As for the Lakers, it appears 2015-16 Kobe might suddenly be a thing. His salary has risen +$600 in his last three performances, but he’s exceeded expecatations by +26.93 points over that span. If it were any other spot, I might even (crazily) consider cash. But note the Spurs have limited opposing off-ball guards to -2.0 points below expectations.

Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz (-6.5)

Implied Total: 91.3 – 97.8, O/U: 189

Earl Watson has made an emphatic point to run a tighter rotation since taking over, seeing only Archie Goodwin (41.4 minutes), Devin Booker (39.3), P.J. Tucker (35.4), and Markieff Morris (35.1) average over 35 minutes for the Suns. Though Morris’ time would rival that of Booker’s had he not gotten into foul trouble early in their last game, one could easily make an argument to avoid him in tonight’s slate. Not only will Morris undoubtedly have an incredibly high ownership, but Phoenix has the lowest implied total of any team on this slate. They’re also playing with a horrid pace differential of -7.1. Their minutes alone could creep Goodwin and Morris into a few cash games, but Gordon Hayward, who has exceeded expectations by an average of +5.63 points in his last 10 performances, remains the stoutest cash play for either side.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-8)

Implied Total: 110.8 – 118.8, O/U: 229.5 

Russell Westbrook has e…

(Wait, this deserves its own stage, doesn’t it? Fine.)

You can read more about this game in our special Saturday edition of the “Trend of the Day”.

Good luck!