Last week saw massive performances from Derek Carr and Carson Wentz in primetime, up-and-down road wins from Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, as well as a shootout in Buffalo courtesy of Jameis Winston and Tyrod Taylor. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston) vs. Carolina Panthers
Despite not throwing in practice until Friday due to a sprained AC joint, Winston lit up the Bills’ 11th-ranked defense in pass DVOA to the tune of 384 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday. He’s now surpassed 325 passing yards in each of his last four complete starts, and the DeSean Jackson effect has been in full display with Winston averaging a career-high 7.9 yards per attempt and 63 percent completion rate. Never one to shy away from taking downfield chances, Winston has posted a league-high average target distance of 11.6 yards and ranks fifth among all quarterbacks with 5.7 red zone attempts per game.
Winston is a gunslinger who racks up fantasy-friendly attempts, and he has the offensive line to continue doing so. PFF’s No. 1 unit in pass-blocking efficiency has given up just five sacks all season, and Winston is one of only six quarterbacks to be pressured on fewer than 30 percent of his dropbacks through seven weeks. To consistently take shots down the field, quarterbacks need to be willing to hold the ball until the last second and possess the ability to escape the pocket. These are two traits Winston has demonstrated again and again this season:
Now Winston and company will go to work against a Panthers defense that has ranked better against the run (fifth) than pass (15th) this season in DVOA. They’ve managed to rack up 24 sacks, but this production hasn’t come with consistent pressure. Only Julius Peppers ranks among PFF’s top-20 edge defenders in pass-rushing productivity this season, and he’s played less than 50 percent of the defense’s snaps. Kawann Short has generated the eighth-most pressures among 57 full-time interior defenders this season, but Star Lotulelei ranks just 50th on that list, and they’ll both have their hands full against a Buccaneers line on which every guard and tackle has been graded as a better pass blocker than run blocker by PFF this season.
Houston Texans (Deshaun Watson) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Watson has been close to unstoppable over his past four games, averaging 29.9 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +13.3 Plus/Minus and 100 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Next up is his biggest test yet: a date with the Legion of Boom in Seattle. The Seahawks’ fifth-ranked defense in pass DVOA has predictably been stingier against quarterbacks at home since the beginning of last season – but not impenetrable, as Tygod, Wentz, and Matt Ryan all managed to surpass their salary-based expectations in Seattle last season.
The Seahawks have been a tale of two defenses this season. They’ve struggled against the few top-tier units they’ve faced:
- Top-13 scoring offenses per-game averages vs. Seahawks (3 games): 20 PPG, 388.3 total yards, 262 passing yards
- Bottom-eight scoring offenses vs. Seahawks (3 games): 11.3 PPG, 220.7 total yards, 119.7 passing yards
Starting defensive end Cliff Avril is done for the season with a neck injury, and the team’s top draft pick, Malik McDowell, is yet to suit up due to injuries sustained from a preseason car crash. The team’s response was to drag 37-year-old Dwight Freeney out of near retirement this week. While Sheldon Richardson and Michael Bennett are disruptive inside, the defense doesn’t have a single edge defender graded among PFF’s top-70 pass rushers this season. The Texans will also welcome back starting left tackle Duane Brown, who has ended his holdout and will take the spot of Chris Clark – PFF’s 14th-worst tackle out of 74 full-time players this season.
Kansas City Chiefs (Alex Smith) vs. Denver Broncos
Smith’s start to the season has been unlike anything we’ve come to expect from him during his time in Kansas City:
- Per-game averages 2013-2016 (61 games): 7.17 yards per attempt, 1.25 touchdowns, 0.46 interceptions, 222.57 passing yards, 19.48 DraftKings PPG
- 2017 (7 games): 8.61 Y/A, 2.14 TDs, 0 INTs, 282.71 yds, 26.98 DraftKings PPG
He’s been absolutely lethal when throwing downfield, completing 17 of 27 passes of 20-plus yards for 717 yards and six touchdowns. Smith has managed to make plays down the field in spite of the league’s 17th-ranked offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency, and the Chiefs could once again be without starting center Mitch Morse (foot, questionable) and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (knee). All these issues are, of course, amplified against the Broncos’ beastly pass rush, which will welcome back Shane Ray from IR in addition to All-World edge rusher Von Miller. Nobody has generated more hurries than Miller this season, and Ray ranked 17th among full-time edge rushers in pass-rushing productivity last season.
Smith has averaged just 6.35 yards per attempt in his last eight games against the Broncos, and Miller’s 11.5 career sacks against the Chiefs are his most against everyone except Philip Rivers.
Washington Redskins (Kirk Cousins) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Redskins have had one of the better pass-blocking offensive lines in the league since the beginning of last season, but they face the prospect of playing with up to four starters limited up front. Left tackle Trent Williams (knee), right tackle Morgan Moses (ankle), center Spencer Long (knee), and right guard Brandon Scherff (knee) all missed practice Thursday and should be considered questionable for Sunday. Cousins has racked up 300-plus passing yards in three of his last four games and finally appears comfortable with his new supporting cast of weapons (minus Terrelle Pryor). That said, he faces an improved Cowboys defense, which has posted the league’s ninth-best adjusted sack rate behind DeMarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks) and recently reinstated David Irving (3.0 sacks):
The health of Sean Lee (quad, probable) also bodes well for the Cowboys considering they’ve allowed 18.0 PPG in four games with Lee this season compared to 35.0 PPG in two games without. Only Carson Palmer has managed to clear 250 passing yards against the Cowboys through seven weeks, and Cousins could have trouble cashing in against the league’s 20th-ranked defense in pass DVOA if a scrambled offensive line can’t handle five separate Cowboys linemen and linebackers ranked among the top-25 best pass rushers at their position according to PFF this season. Monitor the status of the Redskins’ offensive line with our Injury Dashboard and industry-leading News Feed.
Honorable Mentions
- New England Patriots (Tom Brady) vs. Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers’ eighth-ranked defense in DVOA has rode edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram — PFF’s No. 5 and No. 1 highest-graded pass-rushing edge rushers, respectively — all season and is yet to allow more than 240 passing yards in a game. They’re capable of becoming the first team to hold Brady without multiple touchdowns or 300-plus passing yards since the Chiefs in Week 1, but the Patriots’ current implied total of 28 points suggests the league’s No. 2 overall offense in DVOA could still find success.
- New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees) vs. Chicago Bears: The Saints will be without Larry Warford (abdominal strain, out), but they get the Bears at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football and have long-time left tackle Terron Armstead with Ryan Ramczyk (PFF’s 21st-best offensive tackle in pass blocking) to take on the Bears’ unimposing group of edge rushers. Overall, only Pernell McPhee ranks among PFF’s top-70 edge defenders, and his chronic knee issues have limited him to playing less than 50 percent of the defense’s snaps this season.
- Carolina Panthers (Cam Newton) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Center Ryan Kalil‘s return from a neck injury didn’t go as planned last week, as he re-aggravated the injury and hasn’t practiced all week. Even with the league’s seventh-worst offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency, Newton is set up well against a Buccaneers unit without last year’s first-round pick Noah Spence (shoulder, IR). The Buccaneers rank among the bottom-three defenses in DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to quarterbacks this season.
- Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz) vs. San Francisco 49ers: Wentz will have to keep the wagon rolling without left tackle Jason Peters (ACL/MCL, IR), who was PFF’s No. 2 overall tackle through seven weeks. That’s bad news against DeForest Buckner, one of just three interior defenders with over 30 pressures this season. Still, the Eagles and their fifth-ranked unit in pass-blocking efficiency are implied for a slate-high 30 points against the league’s last-ranked team in time of possession and 29th-ranked defense in pass DVOA.
