This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from the best NFL games of the week. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Redskins have ranked top-10 in yards per play each of the last three seasons and finished eighth in pass/run ratio last year at just the 26th-fastest neutral pace (Football Outsiders). The loss of Sean McVay has been significant, although they are still top-10 in yards per play running at a below-average pace; with Jay Gruden calling plays, the team has been more run-heavy, ranking 21st in pass play percentage.
Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys have been 31st, 31st, and 30th in neutral pace, but they have actually sped things up in 2017, ranking squarely in the middle of the pack. Last year, with the additions of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys were the most run-oriented team in the league, ranking first in run/pass ratio and number of running plays. This season, the Cowboys have the ninth-highest percentage of run plays (45.24 percent) but have gone much more run-heavy in recent weeks. They still have massive deficiencies on defense (10th-most points against) and will look to deploy their slow-paced, run-heavy style.
The over/under sits at 50.5 points — highest on the main slate — but the Cowboys’ implied total of 26.25 is ‘only’ fourth-highest. The Cowboys own the seventh-highest Over/Under Differential (their actual total of games minus their over/under) through eight weeks.
Both defensive lines are top-10 in adjusted sack rate but may have difficulty getting to the quarterback considering both teams have above-average offensive lines. Per DVOA, neither team runs out an overwhelming funnel defense, but the Cowboys’ subpar unit overall has been slightly better against the pass (20th) than against the run (31st).
Kirk Cousins has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.40 with Josh Doctson and a 0.46 ownership correlation. Adding Elliott could be wise given his volume security and upside. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values (based on positions):
The actual points correlation values are still positive with Cousins and Zeke, but opposing RBs provide a much lower ownership correlation than an opponent’s WR1 (0.25), WR2 (0.21), or TE1 (0.21). After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian stack of the week.
Kirk Cousins, QB
Near the halfway point of the season, Cousins is top-four in completion percentage, passer rating, and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). He has a good matchup this week against a Cowboys defense allowing the 11th-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks. He carved up this division rival for 406.5 passing yards per game last season.
Josh Doctson, WR
His three catches on five targets in Week 7 were both season-highs, and, at just $3,900 on DraftKings, Doctson could offer some serious salary relief. He should run the majority of his routes against Anthony Brown, who’s currently Pro Football Focus’ 68th-ranked cornerback. Per Chris Raybon in an offseason Daily Fantasy Flex Podcast:
“DraftKings PPG is more predictable than targets after five games.”
Over his last five games, Doctson’s 6.28 PPG isn’t breathtaking, but it is the highest of any Washington wide receiver. He trails only Terrelle Pryor in air yards over that same period for the Redskins.
Jordan Reed, TE
Reed also set season-highs in receptions (eight) and targets (10) in Week 7. The oft-injured tight end scored two touchdowns in primetime, so he could see elevated ownership this week. That said, it’s hard to fade him: The Cowboys rank 31st in DVOA to the position.
Dak Prescott, QB
A year removed from posting an uber-efficient 67.8 percent completion rate (fourth) and 104.9 passer rating (third) in his rookie season, Dak still cracks the top-10 in passer rating (98.2) but has regressed to 19th in completion rate (62.7 percent). His 34 passing attempts per game this year doesn’t completely capture the current state of the Cowboys offense. Over the past two games, Dallas has averaged 39 rush attempts to just 31.5 pass attempts.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Zeke ate all the invisible cereal last week against the 49ers, rushing for 26-147-2 and adding one catch for 72 yards and a third touchdown on three targets. The Redskins are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards (394) in the league but have also seen the second-fewest rushing attempts (110). Although Zeke has just two catches over the last two weeks, his volume on the ground isn’t a concern; he’s logged 24.5 carries per game over his last four. The Cowboys’ offensive line ranks sixth-best in adjusted line yards (Football Outsiders).
Dez Bryant, WR
Over the last five games, Dez owns a top-10 market share of air yards, but the Redskins have allowed the fourth-fewest DraftKings PPG to wide receivers this year. Keep an eye on our Week 8 Injury Dashboard for more on the status of cornerback Josh Norman (ribs, questionable), who returned to practice this week and hasn’t played since Week 4.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Over the last decade, the Patriots have been top-six in points per drive each year, top-six in neutral pace (Football Outsiders) in every year but one, and top-12 in offensive scoring and play volume in every season since 2001 and 2004, respectively. In the 17-year Bill Belichick era, the Pats have been top-12 in pass attempts and rush attempts in 76.5 and 64.7 percent of seasons. This season, the Patriots have run the 10th-highest percentage of pass plays (59.7 percent) and have operated as the second-fastest offense in the league.
Not once has one of Anthony Lynn’s offenses played faster than 10th in neutral pace. They skew toward the pass and currently rank eighth in team pass play percentage (62.74 percent). The defense has been solid this year, allowing the sixth-fewest points against, in part due to their defensive line, which ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders).
New England’s victory over Atlanta last week moved their Super Bowl odds back to +350. This week, the over/under sits at 48.0 points — second-highest on the main slate — and the Patriots’ implied total of 27.75 is the third-highest of the entire 13-game Thursday to Monday slate.
The passing options on both sides of the ball will likely make for some chalky stacks, so the best way to differentiate may be through unique lineup construction and/or game stacks. One way to be unique rostering a chalky Keenan Allen could be to run him back with your Patriots stacks. Here are the correlation values (per our NFL Correlations page) for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for a game stack with Tom Brady (based on positions):
On the surface, this definitely looks like a game to stack, and paying up for Brady over Philip Rivers could lead to a more unique lineup construction than simply rolling out something like Rivers-Allen-Chris Hogan.
Tom Brady, QB
The Chargers have the fifth-most sacks in the league and have a defense that revolves around pressuring the quarterback. That’s fine with Brady this year: His quarterback rating of 108.6 under pressure leads the NFL (Pro Football Focus). That said, quarterbacks as home favorites at comparable salaries and implied totals have historically produced a middling 20.55 DraftKings PPG and +1.15 Plus/Minus with a 46.2 percent Consistency Rating.
Chris Hogan, WR
Per our Week 8 Market Share Report, the Patriots’ target share is far from concentrated, but there still may be value in knowing what type of targets we can expect from these options.
Hogan is fifth in red zone targets (10) but barely cracks the top-20 in red zone target share (26.3 percent) with Rob Gronkowski close behind (23.5 percent). Gronk will/should always have a role in this area of the field, but James White (18.4 percent) may be a bigger threat, as he quietly has five red zone targets to Hogan’s two over the past three weeks.
Rob Gronkowski, TE
The Chargers have allowed zero touchdowns and the fourth-fewest FanDuel PPG (6.7) to tight ends this season. Sure, they faced the Dolphins once and the Broncos twice, but they have severely limited some of the league’s best:
- Travis Kelce (Week 3) 1-1-0, one target
- Zach Ertz (Week 4) 5-81-0, eight targets
- Evan Engram (Week 5) 0-0-0, four targets
- Jared Cook (Week 6) 2-14-0, three targets
That said, Gronk owns the highest ceiling at the position and is certainly capable of smashing in a poor matchup. His 94 percent Bargain Rating makes him an intriguing pivot off of Ertz this week in guaranteed prize pools.
Philip Rivers, QB
In seven career games (including playoffs) against the Patriots, Rivers has averaged a 60.9 percent completion rate, 261.3 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, 1.3 interceptions, and 7.4 yards per attempt. He’s also thrown for 300 or more yards 42.9 percent of the time, and it’s no secret that the Patriots defense has been beatable this year. They’ve actually been even worse at home, allowing a 118.0 passer rating versus 90.4 on the road.
Keenan Allen, WR
His 27 percent target share is seventh-highest in the league, and his 31 percent market share of air yards is top-20. He’s expected to be chalky against a Patriots defense that has allowed the third-most DraftKings PPG to the position this season. Further, Allen is expected to run the majority of his routes in the slot against Eric Rowe, a matchup which PFF has graded as a top-10 WR/CB advantage of the week.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns later in the week!
