The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook is priced at $10,800 today on FanDuel, which is the first time he’s been priced below $11,000 in over a full calendar year. Historically, he’s provided excellent value when priced under that threshold:
His usage rate was up in his last game; he attempted 24 shots after taking just 23 over his first two games combined. The Thunder rank fourth on today’s slate with an implied team total of 115.25 points. The big concern with Westbrook is the blowout factor – their -13.5 spread makes them the largest favorites of the day – and he has a historical Plus/Minus of +3.78 on FanDuel as a comparable favorite. He will likely see the defense of Victor Oladipo in this contest, which could be a relatively tough individual matchup: Dipo ranked sixth among all guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season. Given that Westbrook has looked relatively mortal through his first three games and the fact that there are other superstars in better spots, there’s a chance that paying up for Westbrook on today’s slate will actually be a contrarian strategy. Given his virtually unmatched ceiling, that always increases his appeal in guaranteed prize pool tournaments.
John Wall is only $600 less than Westbrook on FanDuel, but he has arguably the top matchup of the day against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have played at the fastest pace in the league early in the season, averaging 112.0 possessions per game, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +1.1 for Wall. The Wizards’ implied team total of 117.25 ranks third on today’s slate, and Wall has historically crushed with a comparable paceD and an implied team total of at least 112 points:
Values
Ricky Rubio could be considered a value on DraftKings, where he has a salary of just $6,800 and a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He’s taking on the Phoenix Suns today, who currently rank third in pace (108.5 possessions per game) and 29th in defensive efficiency (114.2 points per 100 possessions). Given the Jazz’s typically methodic pace, Rubio’s resulting paceD of +9.3 is the largest mark on today’s slate.
Jerryd Bayless played 32 minutes in the last game for the Philadelphia 76ers, thanks in part to a shoulder injury that has limited rookie PG Markelle Fultz. He’s very affordable at just $4,100 on DraftKings and will likely approach a similar minute count today against the Houston Rockets. That game should be fantasy-friendly given the high over/under (220.5 points) and low point spread (3.0).
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry has historically thrived when playing against the Golden State Warriors, averaging just under 44 DraftKings points and a Plus/Minus of +5.25 over the past three seasons.
Kemba Walker owns some of the most drastic home/road splits among all PGs:
Not only is he at home today, but he’s facing a Nuggets team that rewarded PGs with the fourth-highest average Plus/Minus last year at +4.25 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has disappointed in his first three games without Chris Paul, averaging a Plus/Minus of -7.51 on FanDuel over that time frame. The good news for Harden is that those three games have come in relatively tough matchups against the Mavericks, Kings, and Grizzlies; all three rank in the bottom-six in pace so far this season. Harden’s current usage rate of 34.5 percent actually represents an increase compared to his incredible 2016-17 campaign, so it’s possible that Harden could get it going today in a much more fantasy-friendly matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. They’re playing at the sixth-fastest pace so far this season, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 112 points ranks fifth on today’s slate.
Value
Avery Bradley has yet to return value as a member of the Detroit Pistons, but he is coming off a game where he saw 38 minutes of court time. His salary has decreased by $500 since the start of the season, and he’ll likely draw the defense of Andrew Wiggins, who was 84th among 85 qualifiers at SG with a DRPM of -3.16 last season.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo has thrived in his new situation with the Pacers so far this season:
He’s maintained a usage rate of 32.4 percent with Myles Turner off the floor this season – who’s slated to miss at least one more game – and he’s averaged just under 40 fantasy points per 36 minutes on DraftKings in that situation. The tough matchup against Andre Roberson does limit his appeal a bit, but this is a #RevengeGame, if you’re into that.
Small Forward
Studs
The Cavaliers scrapped the Jose Calderon experiment after just one game, moving Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup yesterday and giving LeBron James the reins at the PG position. LeBron didn’t disappoint, scoring 64.5 DraftKings points while posting a Plus/Minus of +16.43, and he now gets possibly the best matchup in the league against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, resulting in a paceD of +5.2 for LeBron. He’s historically crushed in comparable pace-up situations:
The Cavs rank second on today’s slate with an implied team total of 117.5 points and are modest seven-point favorites. He should be considered one of the top options of the day, especially for cash games given his sky-high Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past year.
Kevin Durant will likely go overlooked on today’s slate given the presence of LeBron, Harden, and Westbrook, but he has his merits. He leads all SFs on DraftKings with 12 Pro Trends and owns a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. The Warriors also own the top implied team total of the day at 118.75 points.
Value
Here’s what Otto Porter has done through his first three games this season:
Porter has always been a strong contributor with his peripheral statistics but has been a minor factor in the offense: His usage rate of 15.1 percent ranked just 12th on the Wizards last season. He’s upped that to a more-respectable 19.4 percent this season, resulting in an average of over 18 points per game in 2017-18. His salary has increased by only $200 on DraftKings since the start of the season, and he’s historically exceeded expectations in pace-up situations like the one he’ll face today against the Lakers:
Fast Break
Caris LeVert has played at least 27 minutes in each game this season, which is more than expected given how head coach Kenny Atkinson managed his minutes last season. He’s averaged 0.81 fantasy points per minute and remains affordable on DraftKings with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Trevor Ariza has been ruled out for the Rockets today, which could open the door for increased minutes for P.J. Tucker. He’s only $4,400 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge leads all PFs on FanDuel with a $8,900 salary and has been worth every penny so far this season:
His usage rate of 29.4 percent this year is not surprising given the injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, but he should face a much stiffer test today against the Miami Heat. This game currently has the lowest over/under of the day at 196.5 points, and the Spurs’ implied team total of 100.25 points ranks as the fourth-lowest. Given his salary increase of almost $2,000 since the start of the season, Aldridge will likely not be a popular target.
Values
Marquese Chriss moved back into the starting lineup on Monday under new head coach Jay Triano and rewarded fantasy owners with 34 fantasy points in roughly 30 minutes of court time. He’s almost certainly underpriced at $4,300 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings if he’s going to see that many minutes per game – he has an average of 0.88 fantasy points per minute – even in a brutal matchup against the Utah Jazz.
The Rockets are on the road, which means we’re safe to consider Ryan Anderson given his weird home/road splits. Last year, he was almost 7.5 fantasy points per game better when playing away from Houston:
The injury to Ariza should also solidify his minutes in the 30-32 range.
Fast Break
The insertion of Thompson to the starting lineup didn’t exactly hurt Kevin Love on Tuesday, as he managed to post 40 fantasy points on DraftKings in roughly 29 minutes of court time. He’s actually led the team in usage this season with Derrick Rose off the court, and the Nets have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +8.52 to opposing big men so far this season.
Joel Embiid is PF-eligible on DraftKings, which makes him much more appealing given the dearth of quality options at the position today. He’s picked up right where he left off last season, playing approximately 28 minutes and averaging around 40 fantasy points per game. Some people are scared off by the lack of minutes upside for Embiid, but there’s really no need to be given his position-high Consistency Rating of 94 percent over the past year. With a career usage rate of 35.8 percent, he can do a lot of damage in a short amount of time.
Frank Kaminsky has been the primary beneficiary of Cody Zeller missing time so far this season:
He’s played over 32 minutes in each of his last two contests, and, while the addition of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will likely diminish that role eventually, that day is probably not today: MKG is reportedly limited to just seven minutes per half.
Center
Studs
Rudy Gobert has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent today on DraftKings and finds himself in a potentially elite spot against the Phoenix Suns. Gobert provided solid fantasy value in comparable pace-up spots last season:
His salary has decreased by $1,300 since the start of the season on DraftKings – the largest among all centers on today’s slate – but this is his best matchup of the new season. Last year, the Suns allowed the sixth-highest Plus/Minus to opposing centers.
The Denver Nuggets came into the season with sky-high expectations on offense, but they’ve fallen short of those marks so far. They ranked fifth in offensive efficiency (110.0) and seventh in pace (100.7) last season; they’ve dropped to just 18th and 28th in those categories this year. While that is a bit alarming, it’s way too early in the year to panic from any numbers. They’ve played a particularly tough schedule, facing the slow-paced Jazz and Kings in two of their first three contests, and they should perk up offensively given better opportunities moving forward.
As a result of their lower-than-expected offensive production, many of their players stand out as potential values at the moment. Nikola Jokic is just $8,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, and he was incredible last season when priced between $8,000 and $10,000:
He does have a tough matchup today against Dwight Howard, who was 15th among centers in DRPM last season, but getting some exposure to Jokic at his current price tag is likely still warranted in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Brook Lopez was run off the court by the big man combo of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins in his last game, but he should have no such problems today against the Washington Wizards. His current $6,000 price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
The game between the Grizzlies and Mavericks isn’t likely to offer a ton of fantasy value, but one player worth considering is Marc Gasol. The Mavericks have the second-worst rebounding rate in the league so far this season, which is not surprising given they’re starting 39-year-old Dirk Nowitzki at center. Gasol has thrived this season after the removal of Zach Randolph from the offense, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +8.76 through his first three games.
Dwight Howard has looked like his old self playing in Charlotte this season:
He’s pulled down at least 15 rebounds in each game, but this might not be the most ideal spot for him: Denver is currently fourth in rebound percentage after finishing first last season, and Howard will likely have to spend some time on the perimeter guarding Jokic.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
