The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a large 11-game main slate at 7:00 pm ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features only seven skaters priced at $7,300 or above on DraftKings, but there’s a lot to like:
Center
- Connor McDavid: $8,100 @ Pittsburgh
- Tyler Seguin: $8,000 @ Colorado
- Sidney Crosby: $7,900 vs. Edmonton
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov: $7,800 @ Carolina
- Patrick Kane: $7,400 @ Las Vegas
- Jamie Benn: $7,200 @ Colorado
Defense
- Erik Karlsson: $7,300 vs. Los Angeles
- Roman Josi: $6,400 vs. Calgary
- Drew Doughty: $6,300 @ Ottawa
After three straight road games — including an embarrassing loss to the Lightning in which they allowed seven goals — Crosby and the Penguins come home to face an Oilers team without a regulation win since the season opener. Pittsburgh has the slate’s third-highest implied total at 3.3 goals, and although the Penguins have struggled defensively they own the second-best power play in the league (32.4 percent) and face Edmonton’s second-worst penalty kill (72.4 percent). Crosby falls in the 97th and 98th percentile in shots and points per game over the past year and owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Paying up for Seguin’s 6.0 shots+blocks per game in cash games is certainly viable, as he trails only Mark Giordano in the slate and the Stars have the fourth-highest implied total. His teammate Benn has less safety at 4.13 shots+blocks per game, but he has comparable upside in tournaments. That said, the Stars are on the road, and the matchup against the Avalanche may be less appealing than it was last year. Although they have lost three straight, the Avalance has improved considerably on defense this year, allowing the seventh-fewest goals and 10th-fewest shots per game after allowing the most goals, fourth-most power play opportunities, and seventh-most shots last year.
Paying up for defensemen like Karlsson at home makes a lot of sense, as he leads the slate with 5.45 shots+blocks per game over the past year. He logged just 22:25 minutes of ice time in his return a week ago, but in the two games since he has over 25 minutes per game. The Senators have drawn the third-most penalties in the league but the Kings have allowed the second-fewest power play goals in the league.
Values
Artturi Lehkonen: With a 91 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating, he’s underpriced at $3,900 given his 3.13 shots+blocks per game and role on the first line and power play unit for Montreal. Power play forwards at home with comparable salaries, implied totals, and peripheral stats have historically provided a +2.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus at 5.6 percent ownership.
Michael Del Zotto: His price is up $400 on DraftKings over the past month, but he still looks underpriced as the Canucks’ primary shooting option on the first power play unit. Vancouver has the lowest implied total on the slate — and could go under-owned in GPPs as a result — but the Wild rank sixth worst on the penalty kill and the Canucks have drawn the sixth-most penalties this year.
One-Timers
Evander Kane: He’s the same price as Mike Hoffman on FanDuel and both are strong peripheral options. However, Kane’s price increase of $1,500 over the past month could scare people off him on DraftKings, so you could get him at a reduced ownership in tournaments today. He has the most shots+blocks over the past month of all the slate’s wingers with a mid-tier implied total.
Kailer Yamamoto: Despite giving up seven goals to Tampa Bay just last game, Pittsburgh will be popular tonight at home matched up against Edmonton’s putrid penalty kill. On the other side of that game, Yamamoto provides cheap exposure to McDavid at even strength regardless of whether Leon Draisaitl slots back into his role on the first power play unit. Yamamoto has yet to score a goal but has already flashed eight-shot upside this year. The 2017 first-round pick finished sixth in the Western Hockey League scoring race last year with a 42-57-99 stat line for the Spokane Chiefs.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
There are some correlation concerns at even strength, but the Penguins should do enough of their damage on the power play in this game for the PP1 stack to be in play for tournaments. Pittsburgh has drawn the most penalties in the league and Edmonton has the second-worst penalty kill.
The New York Islanders stand out from a matchup perspective and will likely see elevated ownership despite their performance this year.
The Islanders have the slate’s highest implied total at 3.5 goals and face a Coyotes team that has allowed the second-most goals this season. Nevertheless, the Coyotes have the fourth-best penalty kill at 72.7 percent, and the Islanders own the worst power play in the league with one goal in 25 opportunities. It’s obviously a great spot on paper, but the Islanders could be a decent fade.
On FanDuel, one of the top three-man stacks belongs to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It’s early, but Stamkos and Kucherov sit atop the points race with 18 and 16 points through nine games. Only Alex Ovechkin has scored as many goals as Kucherov this season, but the latter has been the far more consistent fantasy asset, scoring a goal in every game but one this season. Stacking him with Stamkos is expensive, but so far this year it’s been worth it as they have an unreal 0.76 correlation coefficient in our Models.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel goalie scoring, but the slate lacks a massive favorite:
- Wild -190 vs. Canucks
- Islanders -182 vs. Coyotes
- Blackhawks -161 @ Golden Knights
Devan Dubnyk will start for the Wild, and it seems like a decent spot to attack as Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most shots this year, but his peripheral stat ceiling could be limited even if he gets the win. Vancouver doesn’t shoot a ton. Then again, at least the Canucks score goals at a below-average rate.
Jaroslav Halak and Corey Crawford also play for teams allowing shots in the top 10 this year, so both are squarely in play with the Islanders and Blackhawks as two of the slate’s larger favorites. Crawford is on the road facing a Golden Knights team that has scored the 12th-most goals and Halak gets a home Coyotes team that has scored two or fewer goals in all but two games this season (second fewest overall).
At the time of writing the Penguins goaltender has not been announced, but either Matt Murray or Antti Niemi will start. The Penguins are the fourth-largest moneyline favorite, and Murray and Niemi are in a great situation from a matchup perspective. They both own save predictions in the top five percent and face an Oilers offense that is in the top five percentile in shots but bottom five percentile in goals over the past month. The Penguins have allowed the 12th-most shots this year, which should raise their goaltender’s floor even if they don’t secure a win.
Mike Condon stands out at home with -140 moneyline odds against Los Angeles. The Senators are in the top five percentile over the past month in shots allowed, and Condon owns a top 10 percentile save prediction.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
