The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 10-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook is 1/1 this season in terms of recording a triple-double, but the manner in which he recorded it was different than last season. He attempted only 12 field goal attempts and had a usage rate of 28.4 percent, and he seemed more focused on distributing to his new teammates than looking to do it all himself; he recorded an assist on more than 80 percent of the Thunder baskets he didn’t personally score.
For today’s slate, he has a very tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, who were third in defensive efficiency last season and played at the slowest average pace in the league. He also has a tough individual matchup against Ricky Rubio, who was 11th among PGs in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season. That being said, the Jazz weren’t exactly able to slow Westbrook down last year:
Westbrook is still the most-expensive player on both sites, and the slate dynamics will probably result in lower ownership than usual. That definitely increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Stephen Curry remains very affordable on DraftKings at $8,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. There are a few concerns with Curry, however. He’s yet to hit the 30-minute mark in a game this season – which is especially concerning considering the Warriors have played in two close games – and the Warriors are playing in the second leg of a road back-to-back against the Memphis Grizzlies. That said, Curry has actually been pretty effective in road back-to-backs throughout the last three seasons:
If he can play more minutes in this contest, he has a chance to be an excellent value at his current salary.
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. and Devin Harris have already been ruled for today’s contest against the Houston Rockets, which should result in more playing time for J.J. Barea. Barea posted a Plus/Minus of +10.19 on DraftKings in 27 minutes against the Kings on Friday and should be among the highest-owned players on today’s slate. Playing against the Rockets results in a pace differential of +8.3 for the Mavericks players, and players projected for at least 25 minutes of court time have historically thrived in similar pace-up situations:
Pairing Barea with the more expensive studs at other positions is likely to be a popular strategy on today’s slate; that can be reviewed using the new DFS Contests Dashboard shortly after lock.
Fast Break
Derrick Rose sprained his ankle in the fourth quarter on Friday, and coach Tyronn Lue said he’s unlikely to play today. That will likely result in Jose Calderon starting at PG for the Cavs, although the amount of minutes he will ultimately play is uncertain. The Cavs always have the luxury of running the offense through LeBron James, which removes their need for a traditional PG. Calderon is priced at the absolute minimum on both sites.
Kyle Lowry has an intriguing matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid is expected to sit after playing in the first leg of a back-to-back on Friday, and the 76ers were the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency without Embiid on the floor last season. The Raptors’ current implied team total of 112.75 is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Chris Paul has already been ruled out for today’s contest against the Mavericks, and the team fears he could miss as much as a month of action with a knee injury. That should pave the way for James Harden to return to his 2016-17 form. So far this season, Harden has a usage rate of 30.6 percent and an assist rate of 51.7 percent with Paul off the court; both of those numbers are in line with his averages from last season. He’s currently priced at just $10,600 on DraftKings, which is tied with his cheapest salary from last year. He disappointed a bit without Paul on Thursday, but that was the second leg of a road back-to-back, which is a situation that has historically lowered his productivity. Despite the relatively slow-paced matchup against the Mavericks, it’s hard not to consider Harden one of the top plays of the day.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. was shut down by the brutal wing combination of Andre Roberson and Paul George in his first game of the season, resulting in a brutal -16.93 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. His salary was reduced by $600 on FanDuel after that matchup, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent for today’s contest. He still figures to be a huge part of the Knicks offense this season.
Fast Break
Devin Booker went off for 50.20 fantasy points against the Lakers on Friday, thanks in part to stronger-than-usual contributions in the peripheral statistics. He’s proven he can score the basketball at the NBA level, but his 11 rebounds and eight assists from last night’s game both rank among his career-highs in those categories. The Suns are taking on the Clippers today, which will likely result in Patrick Beverley guarding Eric Bledsoe. That could potentially open the door for Booker to handle a large portion of the offense again.
So far this season, the Suns have allowed 124 points to the Trail Blazers and 132 points to the Lakers. They might be a defense we want to target every night this season. Lou Williams played 25 minutes off the bench in his first game for the Clippers, but, as usual, the offense tended to run through him when he was on the court. He has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant has yet to really get it going at the offensive end of the court this season, but he’s managed to salvage his fantasy value by recording a total of 10 blocks over his first two games. There are a few reasons for concerns with Durant today, however. First, this is a major pace-down spot against the Grizzlies, resulting in a pace differential of -7.5 for the Warriors players. Second, Durant doesn’t exactly have a strong history in the second leg of away back-to-backs. Combining those two factors has historically resulted in poor fantasy production for Durant, albeit in a somewhat small sample size:
LeBron James led the league in minutes per game last season, and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down this year. He’s averaged roughly 38.5 minutes per game through his first two contests and has a much easier one tonight against the Orlando Magic. The Cavaliers are implied for 112.5 points – the fifth-highest mark in the slate – and LeBron has been one of the prime beneficiaries with Rose off the court so far this season:
We shouldn’t give too much weight to on/off numbers yet since Rose has played only two games with the Cavaliers, but it makes sense that the Cavs would want to funnel more of their offense through LeBron when playing without their starting point guard.
Value
Wilson Chandler played almost 35 minutes against the Jazz on Wednesday, but he stumbled to a Plus/Minus of -4.06 on DraftKings. While the production is obviously not ideal, we shouldn’t read too much into a poor performance against an elite defensive team. The minutes are the more encouraging number, and Chandler should find things much easier against the Sacramento Kings today. The Nuggets’ implied team total of 112.75 points is tied for third on today’s slate.
Fast Break
So far this season, no member of the 76ers has benefited more from the absence of Embiid than Robert Covington:
He also saw a noticeable increase in Plus/Minus when playing with Embiid last season, so the increase in offensive production isn’t exactly a surprise. He will likely see a few additional minutes in today’s contest against the Raptors, and his defensive capabilities always make him a threat for a GPP-winning kind of performance.
Khris Middleton leads all small forwards with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings and should have a significantly easier matchup today against the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s always a candidate to play 40-plus minutes and is third on the team in usage through the first two games.
Evan Fournier has posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.07 on FanDuel through his first two games this season, playing at least 34 minutes in each. He’s currently second on the team with a usage rate of 25.4 percent, which would represent a new career-high for him if he can sustain it for the duration of the season.
Power Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a PF on FanDuel, PG/SF on DraftKings, and a freak absolutely everywhere. He posted his second consecutive game of at least 60 fantasy points yesterday against the Cavaliers, and his usage rate of 36.8 percent currently ranks third in the NBA. He looks unstoppable at the moment, but he should get a stiff test today from Al-Farouq Aminu on the defensive end of the court. Aminu was second among qualifiers at SF last year with a DRPM of +3.13 and limited his opponents to an average Plus/Minus of -2.3 last season. Further, Giannis is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and is more expensive than every player on FanDuel and DraftKings with the exception of Westbrook. This will be a true test.
Blake Griffin looked strong in his first game of the post-CP3 era in Los Angeles and gets to face a miserable Suns defense today. The Clippers lead the slate with an implied team total of 114.75 points, and Griffin has historically performed well in contests with a comparable Vegas implication:
The only real concern is if the Suns can keep this game close: They’re currently the largest underdogs of the day with a spread of +13 points.
Value
There aren’t many cheap options that stand out on today’s slate; it might be a day where it makes sense to pay up a bit. Aminu is currently $4,800 on FanDuel and has recorded an average Plus/Minus of +12.41 through his first two contests, but most of his energy will likely be spent on the defensive end of the court today.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge played roughly 39 minutes in his first game this season and dominated with a Plus/Minus of +13.44 on DraftKings. He posted a usage rate of over 30 percent in that game, which was in line with how he fared last season with Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker both off the court:
He should draw a matchup against Lauri Markkanen today, who has a long way to go to prove he can defend a player like Aldridge at the NBA level.
Ben Simmons looks like he’s going to be a strong contributor in rebounds and assists all season, with his night-to-night upside determined by how well he can score the basketball. He’s another candidate to see some extra usage without Embiid and is tied with Giannis for the most Pro Trends among PFs on FanDuel.
Kelly Olynyk saw just 21 minutes in his first game of the season against the Orlando Magic but was still able to post a positive Plus/Minus. He should be a candidate to see a few additional minutes today and has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel.
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic had a brutal first matchup against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, but he should find much smoother sailing tonight against the Sacramento Kings. He played over 35 minutes in that game against the Jazz, and minutes have always been the big concern with him; his average of 1.36 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel makes him one of the most productive players in the league on an efficiency basis. He has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on FanDuel and is currently projected for just five to eight percent ownership in our Models.
Nikola Vucevic has not disappointed in either of his first two performances and is coming off a 41-point game against the Brooklyn Nets last night. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of those contests – which has historically been a bit of a concern for him – and has posted one of the top usage differentials on the team with Elfrid Payton off the court this season:
With Payton already ruled out, the offense could run through Vucevic at a high rate today against the Cavaliers.
Value
Enes Kanter started and led the Knicks centers with 22 minutes played in their first game, and his usage rate of 26.8 percent was second only to Kristaps Porzingis‘ among their regulars. He’s always been productive when he’s seen extended court time: His average of 1.19 fantasy points per minute is greater than the rates for Gobert, Marc Gasol, and DeAndre Jordan, for example.
Fast Break
Speaking of Rudy Gobert, he has definitely not lived up to his sky-high expectations so far this season. He’s spent his first two games playing against perimeter-oriented big men in Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns, resulting in decreases to both his block and rebound numbers compared to last season. He should have no such issues today against Steven Adams.
It’s going to be interesting to watch the minutes for Nerlens Noel this season. He dominated in just 19.5 minutes in Game 1, posting 41.2 fantasy points on FanDuel, and he saw a solid 27 minutes in his second game on Friday. If he can see that much court time going forward, he’s going to be a fantasy asset: He has career-averages of 2.1 steals and 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes and has recorded nine total steals + blocks over his first two games. This may not be the best game to target him, as the Mavs could look to limit his minutes in the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’s definitely someone to keep on your radar for GPPs.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
