The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
If there was a category higher than ‘stud,’ that’s what Russell Westbrook would have fallen into last season. His 41.7 percent usage rate smashed the all-time record, while his assist percentage of 57.3 percent ranked third all-time. Overall, no one in the history of the NBA commanded the basketball at a rate seen by Westbrook last season. Unsurprisingly, it led to some pretty ridiculous fantasy numbers:
Despite averaging a triple-double over the course of a full season, Westbrook’s video game-like numbers didn’t lead to a ton of real life success for the Oklahoma City Thunder. As a result, they brought in two All-Star-caliber reinforcements in the offseason in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. The question now becomes this: Just how much of the offense will Westbrook cede to his new teammates?
If the preseason is any indication, it could be more than people think. He had a usage rate of just 25.0 percent, assist percentage of 45.0 percent, and rebound rate of 5.4 percent, all of which would represent massive decreases from his 2016-17 numbers. Still, Westbrook has posted a usage rate of at least 31.6 percent in seven straight years and led the league in usage while playing with Kevin Durant; it seems unlikely he will suddenly drop below 30 percent.
Let’s assume he returns to his same numbers as his final two seasons with Durant; is it feasible to pay off his $11,000 price tag at those numbers? His historical output from those seasons does paint an optimistic picture:
There’s uncertainty given the new pieces, but Westbrook has shown an incredibly high floor throughout the years regardless of teammates. That’s valuable in a three-game slate.
Value
Patrick Beverley is making his debut for the Clippers tonight and has an excellent matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers were last in defensive efficiency last season – allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions – and played at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. Point guards projected for at least 20 fantasy points were very solid against them:
Beverley is returning from an injury and will likely have to battle #NBATwitter darling Milos Teodosic for minutes, but he shouldn’t need to play too many to pay off his current $4,800 salary on DraftKings. He averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute last season.
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry re-signed with Toronto in the offseason and gets a solid matchup with the Bulls tonight. Toronto is currently implied for 110.5 points, and Lowry has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.20 in games with a comparable total. The big concern is if the Bulls can keep this game competitive. They’re currently 12.5-point underdogs and have quite possibly the least talented roster in the league.
Someone is going to need to score the ball for the Bulls this season; maybe it can be Jerian Grant? He has a brutal individual matchup against Lowry, who was fourth among point guards in Real Defensive Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season, but he did nearly triple-double against these same Raptors in his last preseason game. The Bulls are also hurting at the guard position, with Kris Dunn, Cameron Payne, and Zach LaVine all currently sidelined, so the possibility is there for Grant to see a bunch of minutes.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan is easily the top shooting guard option available on tonight’s slate. However, he’s priced all the way up to $8,800 on FanDuel, which seems a little high with the Raptors currently at full strength. Last season, when DeRozan, Lowry, and Serge Ibaka all shared the court, DeRozan saw a significant usage decrease and averaged just under 36.5 fantasy points per 36 minutes on FanDuel:
He’s also historically struggled to return value at his current price tag:
Given those factors, it could be wise to pay down at SG tonight.
Value
If the preseason is any indication, Tim Hardaway Jr. is ready to shoot this season. He averaged 18 points per game in just 27.8 minutes of action and posted a usage rate of 26.0 percent. That would be a big improvement from last year’s number of 22.5 percent, and he should also significantly improve on his average of just 27.3 minutes per game.
Fast Break
After having too much value last night on FanDuel, there are no such freebies tonight. Justin Holiday was the Bulls’ top offensive option in the preseason, posting an average of 17.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.0 blocks plus steals over 29.3 minutes per game, but they’ve responded by pricing him up to $6,500 for tonight’s contest. He’s never been priced above $4,400 before on FanDuel, yet alone $6,400, so it will be interesting to see his ownership in tonight’s contests.
Jordan Clarkson may move into the starting lineup for the Lakers with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope dealing with a suspension, but he should have value for this team whether he starts or comes off the bench. He likely won’t handle the ball as much after the team drafted Lonzo Ball, but he should still command a significant role in the offense.
Norman Powell is expected to start at SF tonight for the Raptors and has been a productive player when given minutes in the past. He averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute last season and has a chance to see around 30 minutes in tonight’s contest.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George didn’t see as big a hit as expected in the preseason playing with Westbrook, with his usage from last season dropping from 28.9 percent to 28.5 percent. That was 3.5 percent higher than Westbrook’s in the preseason – anyone think it stays that way now that the games matter? George will remain a strong contributor in rebounds, blocks, and steals, but he seems the most logical candidate to take a hit to his offensive game among the OKC Big 3. As a result, it could be tough for him to pay off his $8,600 salary on FanDuel.
Value
C.J. Miles was brought in to Toronto to do one thing: shoot the basketball. He shot 41.3 percent from 3-point range last season and should see minutes with both the bench and starting units tonight.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari is typically a strong option when he’s not injured, and he won’t have nearly the same competition for minutes on the wing in Los Angeles this season. He should be the clear No. 2 option for this offense behind Blake Griffin.
With Caldwell-Pope out and Julius Randle questionable, it’s possible Luol Deng could see more minutes than expected tonight. He has a $3,700 salary on FanDuel and leads the SF position with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin seems like one of the most logical candidates to take a big step forward in fantasy this season. With Chris Paul no longer in Los Angeles, the offense should flow through Griffin: He saw a large jump in his assist percentage when Paul was off the floor last season, resulting in an average of over 45 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Doc Rivers has also said he’d like to play Griffin at center more this season, which would result in him seeing more court time without rebound-monster DeAndre Jordan. Last season, Griffin had a rebound rate of just 12.8 percent while sharing the court with Jordan, but that spiked to 19.1 percent with Jordan off the floor.
Kristaps Porzingis is considered by many to be the savior of the Knicks franchise, and he very well may be, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to assume that role this very second. Last year, his average of 37.37 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Melo and Derrick Rose off the court was actually less than his per-36 number overall. He posted a usage rate of just 23.5 percent in the preseason – albeit in just 16 minutes in one game – so there’s no guarantee he assumes this massive offensive role in New York after shipping Carmelo out of town. He should, however, benefit from the additional defensive scoring on FanDuel after averaging 2.0 blocks per game last season.
Value
The Bulls were looking thin on frontcourt talent to begin the season and now will have to spend the first few weeks without Nikola Mirotic (broken face) and Bobby Portis (bruised knuckles suspension). That should open up more minutes for rookie Lauri Markkanen tonight. He’s a prodigious shooter for a big man – he shot 38.9 percent from 3-point range in the preseason – but his rebound rate of 10.5 percent is embarrassingly low for a seven-footer. He’d be more appealing if he was priced as a true punt option, but the opportunity is there for him to see 30-plus minutes tonight.
Fast Break
Carmelo Anthony should spend more time at PF this season than SF, which could lead to a boost in his fantasy stock. He had a rebound rate of 15.1 percent in the preseason, which would be a career-high if sustained; he should be able to roast traditional power forwards on the perimeter. He’ll likely have far less opportunities in isolation situations this season, but he’s still an elite spot-up shooter.
At only $5,400 on DraftKings, Serge Ibaka leads all PFs today with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He averaged just over 28 DraftKings points per game as a member of the Toronto Raptors and could be overlooked on today’s slate.
Kyle Kuzma was one of the biggest surprises of the Summer League and preseason and supposedly is another option to start for Caldwell-Pope. There’s a chance he’s overowned because of his preseason hype, but he’s shown to be very capable on offense given his shooting.
Center
Studs
DeAndre Jordan leads all centers in both Consistency Rating and Upside Rating on FanDuel and has an interesting matchup today against Brook Lopez and the Lakers. Facing Lopez can be a bit of a double-edged sword for a center’s fantasy prospects. On one hand, he’s definitely a below-average defender: His DRPM of +0.55 ranked 45th out of 59 qualifiers at the center position last season. On the other hand, he typically plays out on the perimeter, which can lead to reduced rebounding chances. Last year, centers did worse than expected against the Nets given that they played at the fastest pace in the league and were also one of the worst teams in terms of defensive efficiency:
That number was below average, which goes to show how important rebounds are for centers. They’re even more so for a guy like Jordan, who won’t have the luxury of receiving lob passes from Paul this season for easy dunks. It will be interesting to see if Paul’s removal from the offense ultimately helps or hurts Jordan from a fantasy perspective.
Speaking of Lopez, where will his minutes be this season? The Nets were extremely cautious with him, playing him only 29.6 minutes per game last season, but his 75 games played was his highest total in the last six seasons. As far as when he’s on the court, there’s no question he’s one of the most offensively-skilled centers in the league. He even added the 3-pointer to his arsenal last season, shooting 34.6 percent on 5.2 attempts per game. He was underpriced virtually all season last year on DraftKings – his Consistency Rating of 88 percent is the top mark at the position – and seems to be underpriced again today; he owns a DraftKings Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Brook’s twin, Robin Lopez, might be the best player on the Bulls this season, which is terrifying for their real-life prospects. Still, Lopez was a decent contributor last season, averaging 0.84 fantasy points per minute, and he should have an opportunity to play close to 30 minutes in tonight’s contest. Whether anyone can actually get him the ball in a scoring position is a different question altogether.
Fast Breaks
It will be interesting to see how the center situation plays out for the Knicks tonight. On one hand, they have a promising young center in Willy Hernangomez, who was an absolute beast last year in limited minutes. He averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute, which was only .02 less than what Jordan scored on a per-minute basis last season. On the other hand, they have a known commodity in Enes Kanter. Kanter has proven he can get buckets in the NBA, but he’s also proven to be an absolute turnstile at the defensive end. The most likely situation is that these guys split minutes tonight, but there’s certainly upside for either of them in GPPs if that doesn’t happen.
There are few players who are more maddening in NBA DFS than Jonas Valanciunas. He’s shown to have a GPP-winning ceiling before, but he also seems to fall in and out of favor with the coaching staff. The Raptors can play big, with Valanciunas and Ibaka on the floor at the same time, or they can go small, which usually results in Valanciunas spending lots of minutes sitting on the bench. That being said, he’s cheap at just $4,800 on DraftKings, and the Bulls will likely play a traditional center at all times between Lopez and Cristiano Felicio. He’s worth some GPP shots.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
