Last week’s premiere rushing performances included big touchdown-less days from Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi, committees in Houston and Tennessee, as well as a return to dominance from Adrian Peterson and Le’Veon Bell. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Chicago Bears (Jordan Howard) vs. Carolina Panthers
Howard is averaging 24 carries since Week 3, effectively handling a RB1’s workload despite giving up 12 touches per game to scatback Tarik Cohen. The Bears’ new-look, run-all-the-time offense has placed an emphasis on taking the game out of Mitch Trubisky‘s hands – a decision that has worked quite well thanks to Howard’s physical one-cut rushing style:
Howard is one of just six backs this season to average over 2.9 yards per rush after contact. He’ll look to continue to ball out at Soldier Field, as he’s averaged an additional 7.47 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with +7.9 and +27 percent Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating differentials at home since the beginning of last season (per our Trends tool).
The Panthers boast the league’s sixth-best defense in DVOA and have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game with All-World linebacker Luke Kuechly. Currently in the concussion protocol, Kuechly hasn’t practiced all week and is looking very questionable for Sunday. The Panthers have allowed an additional 2.5 PPG and 20 rushing yards in 10 games without Kuechly since 2015, presenting a contrarian opportunity with Howard’s two to four percent projected ownership. Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to monitor ownership patterns from the main slate.
Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While McCoy is currently averaging a career-low 3.2 yards per carry, he’s still been the same ankle-breaking stud, ranking fifth among all running backs in evaded tackles through six weeks. The difference between this year and last has been negative plays, as the Bills rank among the bottom-eight offenses in percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage this season. Shady said earlier this week the coaches used the bye week to re-tool their run-game playbook, and they’ll have every chance to get things going against a Buccaneers defense ranked 30th in overall DVOA.
The Buccaneers have struggled to slow down anyone away from Tampa, allowing 105-plus rushing yards in eight of their 10 road games since the beginning of last season. Peterson and Dalvin Cook managed to rip off respective 27-91-1 and 26-134-2 lines at home against the Buccaneers this season, and McCoy’s status as one of just nine running backs averaging at least six targets per game gives him a great floor in any matchup. The expected return of linebacker Kwon Alexander (hamstring, questionable) will help the Bucs, but they’ll need more from defensive linemen not named Gerald McCoy, as the team’s other key interior defenders all rank outside of the top-95 defensive tackles against the run by PFF this season.
Minnesota Vikings (Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray) vs. Baltimore Ravens
We’ve gained a bit of clarity on the post-Dalvin Vikings backfield over the past two weeks:
- McKinnon: 91/147 snaps, 32 carries, 5.13 yards per carry, 12 targets, 26.25 DraftKings PPG
- Murray: 55/147 snaps, 27 carries, 2.18 yards per carry, 3 targets, 5.50 DK PPG
McKinnon is clearly the pass-catching back and has proven to be the superior overall player in this two-week sample. Still, the Vikings don’t appear ready to completely delegate Murray to the bench considering they’ve never fully trusted McKinnon in a three-down role and have roughly $15 million reasons why they should continue to keep Murray involved. Case Keenum has exceeded expectations in his extended stint as the starting quarterback, although the Vikings have exceeded 23 points just once in his five starts.
Both backs have their toughest matchup yet against a Ravens defense ranked No. 4 in overall DVOA. They’ll welcome back 6’1″ and 335-pound defensive tackle Brandon Williams. Overall, the Ravens allowed just 85 rushing yards per game during the first two weeks of the season with Williams compared to an average of 169.5 yards per game during the ensuing four weeks.
Arizona Cardinals (Adrian Peterson) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Peterson didn’t waste any time taking over the Cardinals’ backfield, playing 74 percent of the offense’s snaps last Sunday. Andre Ellington (hamstring, questionable) played on just 13 of 65 snaps, as the Cardinals led by two-plus scores for nearly the entire game. Peterson made the most of his opportunities, turning in a 26-134-2 rushing line, though he wasn’t targeted in the passing game and faces less-friendly game script this week as a 3.5-point underdog. It’d been awhile since we’d seen a vintage Peterson performance, as he had averaged just 2.76 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns over his previous 13 games entering Sunday.
The key question for this Sunday: How much of Peterson’s performance was due to a reshuffled offensive line/new offense, and how much of it was due to the Buccaneers’ aforementioned atrocious road defense? The Cardinals are one of just 10 teams to average fewer than 3.75 adjusted-line yards per rush this season, and while the return of left tackle D.J. Humphries helps, the Rams’ ninth-overall defense in DVOA will be the stiffest test Peterson has seen all season. Aaron Donald‘s dominance speaks for itself, but Michael Brockers has also proven to be tough to move up the middle and is currently PFF’s fourth-highest graded interior defender against the run. Peterson may have some miles left, but he also has a $1,100 salary increase on DraftKings from last week and a -3.49 Projected Plus/Minus – the second-lowest mark among all running backs priced over $5,500 this week.
Honorable Mentions
- New Orleans Saints (Mark Ingram) vs. Green Bay Packers: Ingram has handled a heavier share of the Saints’ RB carries during every week this season, culminating with a season-high 71 percent last Sunday. Alvin Kamara ranks 10th among all running backs in targets and carries a decent floor into any game, but Ingram holds the offense’s luxurious red zone role (tied for sixth-most rushes inside the five-yard line this season) and gets a Packers defense that has allowed the most runs of 20-plus yards through six weeks.
- Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) vs. San Francisco 49ers: Elliott is playing, and he’ll be joined by a healthier Tyron Smith (back, probable), who has practiced all week and will look to get the league’s 14th-best offensive line in adjusted-line yards back into the top-10. It’s hard to find a better get-well spot for the group than against the league’s worst defense in DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs since the beginning of last season.
- Los Angeles Chargers (Melvin Gordon) vs. Denver Broncos: Gordon’s receiving workload has only gotten larger this season, as he’s racked up 20 targets over the past two weeks in addition to his 45 combined carries. Gordon may never average over 4.0 yards per carry, but it’s hard to not produce with 30 opportunities a game. After not having allowed more than 75 rushing yards in a game this season, the Broncos allowed 148 rushing yards to the Giants on Sunday night. The Chargers’ offensive line won’t be confused for a top-10 unit any time soon, but Gordon has averaged 109.3 total yards in three games against the Broncos since last season.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Fournette hasn’t practiced all week due to a foot injury but said he expects to play Sunday. Be sure to monitor our News Feed to stay on top of his status. The Colts showed signs of being a strong funnel defense in the first two weeks of the season but have since allowed an average of 134.8 rushing yards per game. Fournette has 20-plus rushes in all but one of his games this season and will look to extend his scoring streak to seven consecutive games against the league’s worst-scoring defense.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Bell’s season-high 32 carries last week coincided with the Steelers’ most-impressive victory of the season. Thirty touches per game is a lot for even Bell to handle, but that’s been his pace since Week 2. The Steelers have avoided negative runs at a top-eight rate this season but will have to overcome a talented Bengals front seven led by Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, both of whom PFF ranks among the top-20 players at their position this season.
- Green Bay Packers (Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones) vs. New Orleans Saints: Montgomery was out-snapped by Jones 43-20 last week and out-touched 14-11. Montgomery should get healthier by the week, but it seems unlikely he’ll regain his 90 percent touch share prior to the Packers’ Week 8 bye. Offensive tackles Bryan Bulaga (concussion) and David Bakhtiari (hamstring) are questionable, and the Saints figure to load the box without the threat of Aaron Rodgers under center. The Saints are one of just six teams to allow two or fewer rushing touchdowns this season, and only Christian McCaffrey has managed to surpass 20 DraftKings points against them through six weeks.
