The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guards
Stud
Damian Lillard will suit up without C.J. McCollum (suspended) and has a large price discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel today. He’s the second-most expensive player on the slate on DraftKings at $10,400, trailing just Anthony Davis, but his $8,800 salary on FanDuel makes him just the eighth-most expensive player on that site. The salary difference results in a Bargain Rating of 100 percent for Lillard on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and Bargain Ratings have historically been solid values:
Those players have been chalky with an average ownership of 39.5 percent, and that will likely be the case for Lillard today given his awesome matchup with the Phoenix Suns. The Suns played at the second-fastest pace in the league last season (102.9 possessions per game) and were also the third-worst defensive team with a 109.3 rating. As a result, point guards absolutely feasted on them last season, with fantasy relevant players posting a higher average Plus/Minus against the Suns than any other team:
The Trail Blazers have the third-highest implied team total of the day at 111 points, and they’re currently just two-point favorites on the road.
Value
The Dallas Mavericks selected Dennis Smith Jr. with the ninth pick of the draft, and since then his value has only gone up. He’s currently sitting with the third-highest odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year, and he looks to be a focal point of the Mavs’ offense after posting a usage rate of 26.2 percent in the preseason.
Like Lillard, Smith is also in an excellent spot today against the Atlanta Hawks, who played fast last season, averaging 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes. Further, he has an excellent one-on-one matchup versus Dennis Schroder, who has been a sieve defensively in his young career: Schroder’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus of -2.76 ranked 69th out of 74 qualified PGs last season, and he allowed 1.1 fantasy points per minute to opposing PGs.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker will likely be a popular choice today with Nic Batum sidelined, but he hasn’t exactly thrived in these situations before:
Marcus Smart started the second half last night after Gordon Hayward’s gruesome injury, and he scored 34.75 DraftKings points despite making just five of his 16 shots.
Ricky Rubio was a different player in the second half of last season, averaging 16.0 points and 10.6 assists per game after the All-Star break. He will likely have to take on a bigger role in Utah than he did in Minnesota given his surrounding talent, and he’s facing a Nuggets defense that allowed an average Plus/Minus of +5.47 to opposing PGs last season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
We got our first glimpse of the new-look Rockets last night, and they pulled off an impressive 122-121 win on the road against the Golden State Warriors. James Harden finished with 53.5 DraftKings points and for the most part looked like he did last season even with Chris Paul now in the fold. His usage rate of 31.8 percent was only a slight decrease from his career-high 34.2 percent last season, and he still managed to hand out 10 assists.
He gets to face the Sacramento Kings today, who have been absolutely destroyed by SGs over the last three seasons:
The Rockets are implied for a slate-high 113.25 points and are favored by only eight since they’re playing on the road. This is the second leg of a road back-to-back as well, which is a situation that Harden really struggled in last season:
That said, his $10,200 salary makes him roughly $2,000 cheaper on DraftKings than he was for all of those matchups. He has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings and leads all players with 12 individual Pro Trends.
Finally, it’s possible Paul doesn’t even suit up in this match. He was pulled from last night’s game with five minutes to go and is currently considered questionable with a bruised left knee. If he were to sit out, it’d be very difficult not to press the lock button on Harden tonight.
Value
With Hayward leaving Utah, someone is going to have to take on a bigger role for the Jazz this season. One possible candidate is Rodney Hood. He thrived last season whenever Hayward was off the court:
Hood is also in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets were seventh in pace last season with an average of 100.7 possessions per game, resulting in a pace differential of +7.1 for the Jazz players. A pace differential that large has unsurprisingly been awesome for players projected to see at least 25 minutes of court time:
At just $4,500 on FanDuel, Hood has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo escaped the shadow of Russell Westbrook this offseason and is poised to grab a much larger piece of the offensive pie playing in Indiana. He posted a usage rate of 27.2 percent in the preseason – which would be a new career-high – and has a plus matchup today against D’Angelo Russell and the Brooklyn Nets.
Jaylen Brown is another Celtic who should take on a bigger role after the Hayward injury. He played 39.6 minutes last night and posted a Plus/Minus of +19.44 on DraftKings. He remains incredibly cheap at just $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is PG/SF-eligible on DraftKings and PF-eligible on FanDuel, but, regardless of his position, few players in the NBA can match his ceiling in DFS. He has a slight pace-up spot today against the Boston Celtics, and he’s historically been an awesome value on DraftKings in comparable situations:
He’s coming off an absolutely tremendous preseason, where he posted a usage rate of 34.2 percent and averaged 20.5 points per game in just 24.9 minutes. Of course, that was a very small sample size in exhibition games, but it’s still encouraging to see. Where Giannis really makes his money is with his peripheral statistics, which makes him one of the top candidates to take advantage of the new scoring system on FanDuel. He averaged a combined 3.5 blocks and steals last season.
Value
Jeremy Lamb is expected to start in place of the injured Batum, which should make the DFS community very happy:
Jeremy Lamb time. 31.6 DK ppg as a starter last season, 31.1 DK ppg when he played 28+ minutes. https://t.co/MpiwsvpgvM
— Justin Phan (@jphanned) October 5, 2017
Lamb is one of the best rebounding guards in the league – he averaged 8.3 rebounds per 36 minutes last season – which increases his safety at a position that’s usually pretty light on peripheral statistics. He’s almost mandatory for cash games at just $3,500 on FanDuel and is still worthy of consideration at $5,700 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
One more Celtic? Why not. Jayson Tatum played 36.5 minutes last night and scored 32.5 DraftKings points. He’s just $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, and he should remain the Celtics’ starting PF for as long as Marcus Morris is sidelined. Pairing the Celtics’ value plays with the studs will likely be popular on today’s slate yet again.
It’s pretty ridiculous how many value SFs there are on FanDuel. Kyle Anderson, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Taurean Prince are all priced below $3,500 and expected to play around 30 minutes tonight. Of the three, Prince probably has the highest ceiling thanks to his defensive ability – he averaged 1.6 steals and 1.0 block per 36 minutes last season – and was more involved than expected in the Hawks offense this preseason (10.2 PPG in 22.5 MPG).
Power Forward
Stud
It’s hard to call LaMarcus Aldridge a ‘stud’ after what he did in the postseason, but this is still a very offensively-skilled player on a shorthanded team. Both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker will miss tonight’s contest for the Spurs, and Aldridge was a monster last season with both of those players off the court:
Minnesota was 26th in defensive efficiency last season, although they do project to be better in that department this year. Aldridge is $7,300 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent for the latter site.
Value
We’re still not exactly sure what the 76ers’ rotation will look like this season, but all reports indicate that Ben Simmons is going to be heavily involved. He averaged 11.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in just 22.8 minutes per game in the preseason; he looks like a triple-double waiting to happen any night this year. He has a solid matchup today against the Washington Wizards, who allowed the third-highest Plus/Minus to fantasy-relevant PFs last season:
Fast Breaks
If Zach Randolph can’t go today, look for Skal Labissiere to see increased minutes for the Kings against the Rockets. He didn’t play a ton last season but did average 0.93 fantasy points per minute when he saw the court.
Ryan Anderson’s bizarre home/road splits didn’t disappoint yesterday, as he scored 30.0 DraftKings points and posted a Plus/Minus of +11.44 in Golden State. He remains on the road today for the team with the highest implied team total.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson came on strong at the end of last season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.12 on FanDuel starting in the month of February. Nets coach Kenny Atkinson hasn’t shown a willingness to stick to a clear rotation, but Hollis-Jefferson has a high ceiling if he gets the minutes given his ability to rack up peripheral stats.
Center
Studs
There are a lot of questions in Minnesota this season, but no one is doubting how good Karl-Anthony Towns is. After a rough first two games of the season last year, he was one of the most valuable fantasy assets in the league on DraftKings:
Centers were underpriced all last season on DraftKings, and that looks to be the case again today: Towns has a $9,400 salary and Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He does have a tough matchup against the Spurs, but his projected one-on-one battle against Pau Gasol isn’t nearly as intimidating.
The big concern with Towns is just how much offense he’ll have to sacrifice with the additions of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague. Both of those players are used to playing with the ball in their hands, and placing Towns on the perimeter might actually make the most sense in terms of offensive spacing for this team. Still, Towns is one of the most gifted young players in the league and a bona fide star; hopefully the rest of the roster does most of the offensive acquiescing.
Rudy Gobert was a monster rebounder and shot-blocker last season, and it’s possible he’s asked to do more on the offensive end this year. His usage rate of 22.2 percent in the preseason was a significant increase from his usage rate last season, and he averaged 16.3 points per game in just 25.4 minutes. He’s only $600 cheaper than Towns on DraftKings but represents a savings of $1,900 on FanDuel.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon is expected to start at center for the Hawks today and is priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel. He may not see a ton of minutes for Atlanta, but at that salary it might not matter: Centers with comparable price tags projected for 20-28 minutes have historically returned value:
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is taking on the Miami Heat today, and for some reason he has historically roasted Hassan Whiteside:
He’s projected for just two to four percent ownership in our Player Models.
Myles Turner takes on the Brooklyn Nets in his first game since the Paul George trade, and he has a chance to turn into a star player. He posted a usage rate of 22.5 percent with George off the court last season – an increase of approximately three percent – and should have a chance to display his offensive talents on a more frequent basis this year.
Clint Capela played just 18 minutes last night against the Golden State Warriors, but tonight’s matchup against the Kings sets up much better for him. They play a lot of traditional big men, which should increase his time on the court. Capela averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute last season.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
