The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET.
Point Guards
Studs
Stephen Curry is the most-expensive point guard option on both sites today, although his $8,800 salary on DraftKings does come with a position-high 97 percent Bargain Rating. He leads all point guards in Consistency Rating and Upside Rating over the past 12 months, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 119.25 is the top mark on the slate by a mile.
This game is also expected to be closer than the typical Golden State match, with the Warriors currently listed as ‘just’ nine-point favorites over the Rockets. Unsurprisingly, Curry has thrived in games with comparable implied team totals and spreads:
The one big caveat is his matchup against Chris Paul. Paul led all point guards last season with a Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) of +2.76, and point guards owned an Upside Rating of zero percent against the Clippers last season. That will likely change this season – the Rockets had a worse Defensive Rating than the Clippers and played at a significantly faster pace in 2016-17 – but the fact remains that Paul is an elite defender at his position.
Kyrie Irving left the Cavaliers in the offseason to escape the shadow of LeBron James, so it’s only natural that his first game as a Celtic is against the Cavs in Cleveland. It’s tough to know exactly how the Celtics offense will look after returning just four players from last year’s squad, but one thing that seems certain is Irving commanding a bigger piece of the offense than he did in Cleveland. Last year, when not sharing the floor with LeBron, Irving handled a massive amount of the Cavaliers offense.
The potential for increased usage sans LeBron does appear to be built into his price, however. Historically, he’s failed to returned value when priced at or above his $7,800 salary on DraftKings:
Despite his salary and the uncertainty surrounding the Celtics offense, he should be one of the most popular plays of the day given the #RevengeGame narrative.
Values
The Celtics are going to be shorthanded on opening night, with Marcus Morris currently sidelined with right knee soreness. That will likely shift Jayson Tatum into the starting lineup, which will open up the potential for Marcus Smart to play heavy minutes off the bench. Smart averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute last season and will likely spend time with both the backups and starters today.
Fast Break
For as good as Irving is on offense, he is almost equally bad on defense. He ranked 64th out of 74 qualifiers at point guard in DRPM last season, and Derrick Rose will draw the start against him in Cleveland. Rose averaged 11 points and 3.5 assists in just 16.3 minutes per game in the preseason and should check in with lower ownership than the stud options.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden was absolutely dominant last season, posting an average of 60.27 DraftKings points per game during the regular season. If not for the addition of Paul in the offseason, it would be almost laughable to see him priced at just $10,000 on DraftKings for a matchup with the Warriors. He wasn’t priced that low for a single game in 2016-17 and possesses a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Despite the addition of Paul, however, head coach Mike D’Antoni’s plan to stagger the minutes for Harden and Paul could be an encouraging sign for his fantasy prospects. D’Antoni has stated he wants one of Harden or Paul on the court for all 48 minutes, which will likely result in each playing approximately 12 to 14 minutes without the other. That should serve to stabilize Harden’s fantasy value, as he averaged 1.63 fantasy points per minute last season.
His results against the Warriors last year were a bit of a mixed bag. He totaled 45.5 DraftKings points or less in two games, 61.25 in another, and 75.25 in the fourth. Given his upside, he’s going to be tough to ignore at his current price tag.
Value
Jaylen Brown is expected to draw the start at shooting guard for the Celtics and is priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel. He averaged 0.73 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel last season and should be able to play 30-plus minutes in this contest. He should be one of the chalkiest value plays on the slate.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson should be a popular tournament option on DraftKings given his matchup and $6,200 salary, but he had very interesting Vegas splits last season. He typically thrived in games projected to be blowouts, owning a Plus/Minus of +6.22 when the Warriors were favored by at least 14 points. He struggled in all other situations:
Small Forward
Studs
If the 2016-17 playoffs were any indication of what to expect from the Warriors this season, Kevin Durant could be in for a massive year. He didn’t post a large uptick in usage, but he was very efficient all over the court with 55.6-44.2-89.3 percent shooting splits. Trevor Ariza has long been a good defender . . .
. . . but that didn’t stop Durant from averaging 64.13 DraftKings points and a Plus/Minus of +14.73 in two contests against the Rockets last season. The Warriors are the only team playing today that didn’t make a major change in the offseason, so they should benefit from a higher level of continuity than the other squads.
LeBron James is currently considered a game-time decision, and his status will obviously be a major factor for tonight’s slate. Last year, he increased his usage and fantasy production by significant margins when playing without Irving:
Despite the subtraction of Irving, however, it’s fair to wonder how the Cavs will incorporate all of their new pieces into the offense this season. Even with Isaiah Thomas sitting out for the first few months, the Cavs brought in other high-usage players like Rose and Dwyane Wade, resulting in one of the most negative available usage scores per Bryan Mears’ excellent article. LeBron is the most-expensive player on the slate on DraftKings at $10,200.
Values
Two players in our Models are currently priced at or below $4,500 and projected for 36-40 percent ownership: Trevor Ariza and Jae Crowder.
Ariza will likely be tasked with guarding Durant for most of the game, which should result in a healthy amount of minutes. However, Ariza could struggle to get things going offensively: In addition to being one of the top offensive players in the league, Durant was also one of the best defenders last season:
Ariza posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.25 in four meetings with the Warriors last season, returning value in only one of them. Still, his $4,500 price tag is cheaper than normal and lowers the bar he needs to clear in order to return value.
Crowder is expected to start at power forward at just $4,300 on DraftKings, and he’s posted an excellent Consistency Rating of 82 percent over the past year. He shot over 42 percent on wide-open 3s last season (per player tracking data at NBA.com) and should benefit from more of those playing with LeBron this season.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward is priced in a weird spot on DraftKings; his $6,700 salary is well below the studs like LeBron and Durant but much higher than the value options like Ariza and Crowder. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding his role in Boston, but one thing that is clear is that the Celtics will undoubtedly play at a much faster pace than his old team did. The Celtics’ implied team total is significantly higher than a typical implied team total for the Jazz, and he’s smashed when comparably-priced in similar situations:
Given the uncertainty in Boston and the interesting price point, Hayward could go overlooked in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Power Forward
Studs
Outside of Durant, no member of the Warriors enjoyed more success against the Rockets last season than Draymond Green:
He should also be one of the players most primed to take advantage of the scoring changes on FanDuel. They’ve increased the value of steals and blocks from two points to three points this season, and Draymond contributed a combined total of 3.4 steals and blocks last year. Unfortunately, he has a Bargain Rating of zero percent on FanDuel for today’s game, making him a stronger play on DraftKings. Still, his defensive prowess and triple-double capabilities on offense make him a constant threat for a big game; his Upside Rating of 53 percent over the past year is the top mark among today’s power forwards.
Like LeBron, Kevin Love is another player who could see a bump in usage and production with the departure of Irving. He’s set to start at center instead of power forward this season, which could lead to a spike in rebounding production. Last year, he had a rebounding rate of 17.9 percent when sharing the court with traditional big man partner Tristan Thompson, but that spiked to 23.0 percent with Thompson off the court. If LeBron were to sit out today, Love would become close to a must-play, but he deserves consideration regardless given his increased offensive and rebounding potential.
Value
Ryan Anderson shot over 40 percent from 3 last season and was the beneficiary of some of the weirdest shooting splits in the league. He shot just 33.2 percent from 3 at home versus a scorching 46.7 percent on the road, which unsurprisingly led to some drastic fantasy splits:
Tonight’s game is on the road in Golden State, which should oddly suit Anderson. He scored 36.75 DraftKings points and posted a Plus/Minus of +16.1 in his only matchup with the Warriors on the road last season.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum showed a polished offensive game in the Summer League and preseason and is expected to start for the Celtics tonight. At just $3,900 on DraftKings, he’ll likely be another chalky option for those looking to save money.
Center
Stud
No player on today’s slate was more consistent last season than Al Horford, who owns a Consistency Rating of 91 percent during that time. His DraftKings price tag of $6,000 comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, and Horford has historically smashed with a comparable salary and Bargain Rating on DraftKings:
Value
Aron Baynes is another candidate to see increased minutes with Morris sidelined for the Celtics. He averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute last season and costs just $3,300 on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Clint Capela is only $300 less than Horford on DraftKings, but he’s $1,200 less on FanDuel. Capela averaged just 23.9 minutes per game last season, but his per-minute average of 1.17 FanDuel points was the second-best mark among today’s centers. The threat of Nene stealing 20-plus minutes is always there, but Capela should fit the style of game better against Golden State. Last year, Capela posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.57 against the Warriors in four meetings, while Nene posted a -8.87 Plus/Minus in one.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
