Contrarianism in smaller slates (like four games, for example) remains of utmost importance, though this particular evening features only two high-priced building-blocks (James Harden and Anthony Davis, each of whom have a price-point of at least $10K). Though only four games, however, there are numerous — repeat: numerous — values to discuss. Let’s get to it.
New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons (-4)
Implied Total: 99 – 103, O/U: 202
Stan Van Gundy stated Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is “almost certainly out” after twisting his knee in the second quarter of Wednesday night’s loss. More notable is the fact that Stanley Johnson logged the second-most second-half minutes for the Pistons in Caldwell-Pope’s absence. Implied to score a miniscule 18.95 points, Johnson should even warrant cash consideration as he’s logged the most minutes (549 total) with Caldwell-Pope off the court this season. He’s been a letdown as of late, but Reggie Jackson also needs be looked at since the Knicks have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 to point guards.
Though his usage rate of 14.3% in the starting five remains worrisome, Langston Galloway is now averaging 28.4 DraftKings points in place of Jose Calderon (game-time decision) – he averaged 17.4 off the bench this year. With the consistent minutes he’s receiving (32.5 in his last five games), even his recent hike in salary shouldn’t ward off exposure too much in cash. As for Carmelo Anthony, the Pistons (and Marcus Morris’ stellar play, really) have limited small forwards to -2.1 point below expectations. That’s a tough swallow in cash, but note the way Anthony has been scoring: despite shooting 35.4% over his last three games, Carmelo has exceeded expectations by +8.61 points due to averaging 11.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists over that time. That alone is worth limited exposure in tournaments.
And if that doesn’t do it for you, there’s always Sasha Vujacic, who’s quietly exceeded expectations by +7.44 points since Calderon last took the court.
Houston Rockets (-8) at Phoenix Suns
Implied Total: 110.8 – 103.3, O/U: 214
I would gladly put my (very little) money on Markieff Morris having the highest ownership in tonight’s slate. Recency bias, good graces of a new coach, fan favorite, etc. Even so, I’m not sure how you fade him (especially at FanDuel where he holds an absurd Bargain Rating of 94%). Not only was ‘Kieff featured in the two most-used lineups for Phoenix in their last game, but he (41.5 minutes) and Archie Goodwin (44.8) were the only players for Phoenix to log over 40 minutes. As if that weren’t enough, Earl Watson dipped into Jeff Hornacek’s 2014 playbook, rotating Morris into the paint (where the Rockets have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4) for a few short stints. If their last performance was any indication of things to come, all of Morris, Goodwin, P.J. Tucker, and Devin Booker (one fewer shot attempt than Morris in his last performance) are worth rostering for their minutes alone (as well as the fact that this matchup features the highest-combined pace of the night).
Dwight Howard is set to return, but Josh Smith could be their only backup center/forward by tip-off. As it stands, both Montrezl Harrell and Terrence Jones are confirmed out with Clint Capela currently questionable. Although Smith picked up three quick fouls early in the first half against the Heat (which explains his 21.4 minutes logged that evening), he still exceeded expectations by +13.01 points. His implied total of 20.79 shouldn’t be too hard to achieve (barring the health of all others behind him).
If still searching for unique exposure (this being a small slate and all), note Corey Brewer has averaged 20.1 DraftKings points as Houston’s starting small forward over their last eight games. He’s nothing more than a tournament play as, despite his 28.1 minutes in that span, his production has ranged from 8.75 points all the way to 28.75.
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans (-10.5)
Implied Total: 99.5 – 110, O/U: 209.5
It should come as no surprise that Anthony Davis has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of this slate, but there are just a few concerns as it pertains to rostering him. You can read more about that in our Trend of the Day.
DraftKings wasted no time in assuming the second-coming of vintage Mamba, rising Kobe Bryant’s salary +$500 since his last outing against Minnesota. Though his performance of 58.25 DraftKings points just two nights ago was certainly impressive, his previous output of 43.5 was executed in only 22.9 minutes. It’s worth tournament exposure, but I wouldn’t consider this a trend for Bryant (questionable) just yet: he logged over 30 minutes only twice throughout the month of January.
Tarik Black is set to return, but both Julius Randle (more so in cash) and Brandon Bass (to a lesser extent) are worth taking a look at as the Pelicans have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4 at their position. Randle also has the benefit of logging minutes at center where they’ve allowed +0.7 points above salary-based expectations. The same can be said for Omer Asik who, despite his abysmal projected floor of 1.4 points, remains a strong tournament play as the Lakers have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers in this slate.
Toronto Raptors (-1) at Portland Trailblazers
Implied Total: 102.5 – 101.5, O/U: 205
With James Johnson already ruled out, expect Patrick Patterson and Terrence Ross to share time at small forward. Though neither qualifies as anything more than tournament plays, Patterson is implied to score -1.84 fewer points than Ross. It’s also worth throwing a dart at Bismack Biyombo, who’s averaged 21.6 minutes in his last three games (including 28.9 against Phoenix); Jonas Valanciunas has logged only 18.9 and 19 minutes in consecutive games, failing to meet expectations by -5.73 points.
Separated by only $200, quite a few lineups will likely ponder “Kyle Lowry or Damian Lillard?”. If that’s the case, Lowry remains safer in cash as his projected floor is +2.6 points higher than that of Lillard’s. He’s also been much more consistent in the last month, holding a Dud Percentage of only 7% (unlike Lillard, whose Dud Percentage is 23%). Still, the latter has a projected ceiling +4.2 points greater than Lowry.
Implied to score only 16.65 points, note Meyers Leonard has been featured in the two most-used lineups for Portland with Noah Vonleh (doubtful) off the court. Considering Leonard has exceeded expectations by +4.38 points over his last 10, it only bodes well that the Raptors have allowed +2 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers (and +0.5 at the four).
Good luck!
