Last week saw multiple Texas shoot-outs in Dallas and Houston, a career day from Carson Wentz, and not one, not two, not three, but four Giants receivers leave their loss to the Chargers with severe injuries. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees) vs. Detroit Lions
The Saints lost starting right tackle Zach Strief for the foreseeable future, as he was placed on the injured reserve list due to a knee injury. The good news is that starting left tackle Terron Armstead is expected to make his season debut Sunday. Armstead posted the second-best pass-blocking efficiency score among all tackles from a season ago and will provide further stability to PFF’s third-best pass-blocking offensive line through five weeks. Brees ranks among the top-three quarterbacks in quarterback rating, touchdowns, and completion rate when kept clean this season. Even the best pass rushes often have little chance at getting home thanks to his average snap-to-throw time of 2.41 seconds – tied for the second-quickest mark in the league.
Lions defensive end Anthony Zettel has posted the fifth-highest pass-rushing productivity score among 105 qualified edge defenders this season. Still, the Lions don’t have another starting defensive lineman ranked among the top-45 in pass-rushing productivity at their position now that Haloti Ngata has been placed on IR. They have allowed bottom-six marks in both DraftKings points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks since the beginning of last season, and a trip to the Coors Field of Fantasy Football doesn’t bode well for any defense. Brees has the highest projected ceiling in our Pro Models and has posted a +5.99 Plus/Minus with a 65 percent Consistency Rating as a home favorite since 2014.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jameis Winston) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Through four games, Winston is on pace to set or tie career-highs in yards (4,792), touchdowns (28), adjusted yards per attempt (7.8), and completion rate (61 percent). The results haven’t been pretty in losing efforts against the Vikings and Patriots, but the Buccaneers are calling the eighth-most pass plays in the league through five weeks with Winston averaging the fifth-most attempts of 20-plus yards per game. The DeSean Jackson effect has been working so far for Famous Jameis, and a league-high 50 percent of D-Jax’s targets have been 20-plus yards downfield this season. Winston has been able to sit back and take these chances thanks to the league’s second-best offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency through five weeks, and they get a Cardinals defense allowing the sixth-most points per game and plenty of production to their only three true tests this season:
- Wentz: 31.3 DraftKings points
- Hoyer: 8.7 DraftKings points
- Prescott: 22.9 DraftKings points
- Brissett: 9.8 DraftKings points
- Stafford: 28.1 DraftKings points
Starting outside linebacker and former second-round pick Markus Golden is out for the season with a torn ACL. Chandler Jones has produced, but the team has gotten next to nothing from run-stuffing interior defenders Frostee Rucker and Corey Peters. While their reputation and secondary stars would suggest otherwise, the Cardinals are quietly settling in as a funnel defense given their respective No. 7 and 24 rankings in rush and pass DVOA. Per our Trends tool, Winston has averaged more DraftKings PPG on the road than in Tampa during his career – all while offering an ownership discount.
Detroit Lions (Matthew Stafford) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Lions’ new-look offensive line hasn’t fared as well as the team might have hoped through five weeks, as they’ve posted the fifth-worst pass-blocking efficiency score as a unit and have allowed the ninth- and fourth-most hits and sacks per game. They haven’t traveled well as an offense perhaps in part due to their inconsistent offensive line:
- Stafford at home from 2015-2017 (19 games): 20.6 DraftKings PPG, +3.3 Plus/Minus, 52% Consistency Rating, 10% Upside Rating
- Stafford on the road (18 games): 17.3 DraftKings PPG, -0.4 Plus/Minus, 44% Consistency Rating, 0% Upside Rating
Stafford has thrown for a combined 595 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games in the Superdome, but he’ll have to get the job done against a rested Saints defense that allowed fewer than 160 passing yards to both the Panthers and Dolphins. They’ve seemingly discovered a pass rush, boosting Cam Newton and Jay Cutler‘s average pressure rate by +4.4 and +11.5 percent, respectively, during their last two matchups. The Saints have blitzed on 35 percent of their opponent’s dropbacks this season – tied for the ninth-highest mark in the league. With Stafford averaging the sixth-fewest yards per attempt under pressure this season, a seemingly rosy matchup against the Saints may not be as risk-free as initially thought.
Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Packers welcomed back their starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga last Sunday, but left tackle David Bakhtiari remains out with a hamstring injury. Aaron Rodgers is great enough to ball out under any circumstances, although it’s worth noting he’s been pressured on an additional 5.8 percent of his dropbacks this season compared to 2016. Rodgers has thrown for three-plus touchdowns in three consecutive games, but he’s historically been less amazing than usual away from Lambeau Field since 2014. The Cowboys managed to sack Rodgers four times last week, and the Vikings’ #RhodesClosed-led secondary offers more resistance on the back end than the Cowboys could dream of mustering. The new-age Purple People Eaters have some pass rushers up front as well, with Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph each ranking among PFF’s top-15 pass-rushing defenders at their position this season:
Rodgers is always capable of throwing for multiple touchdowns, but exceeding the slate’s second-highest price tag against a Vikings defense that has allowed 4.2 DraftKings points below salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past calendar year may be easier said than done. The Vikings have allowed over 300 passing yards at home just once since the beginning of last season, and while he’s gotten the touchdowns to make up for it recently, Rodgers has thrown fewer than 30 pass attempts in consecutive games for just the second time since October 2014.
Honorable Mentions
- Washington Redskins (Kirk Cousins) vs. San Francisco 49ers: Cousins ranks among the top-five quarterbacks in Sunday’s main slate in projected floor, ceiling, and Plus/Minus. Be sure to monitor our News Feed to track the status of left tackle Trent Williams (knee, questionable) against a 49ers defense that ranks 26th in pass DVOA.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Roethlisberger’s extreme home/away splits have rubbed off on his No. 1 receiver. Ben has been pressured on just 27.7 percent of his passes this season (third-lowest mark in the league) and threw for five touchdowns vs. the Chiefs in their regular season matchup last season. Still, he’ll need a major improvement in his overall play to become just the third quarterback to throw for 300-plus yards in Arrowhead since 2015.
- Tennessee Titans (Marcus Mariota/Matt Cassel) vs. Indianapolis Colts: The Colts rank among the bottom-three defenses in yards per attempt, yards per game, and 20-plus yard passes allowed per game this season. Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin have helped keep Mariota clean at a top-three rate, and his potential lack of mobility could lead to more pass attempts against a Colts defense allowing the highest Consistency Rating to quarterbacks since the beginning of last season.
