Last week’s premiere rushing performances included 136 bruising yards (109 after contact!) from LeGarrette Blount, injuries to bell-cow backs Dalvin Cook (ACL, out for season) and Ty Montgomery (ribs, questionable), an appearance from the artist formerly known as Le’Veon Bell, as well as continued dominance from Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Another week, another Fournette touchdown, another performance with fewer than 4.0 yards per carry. Fournette ranks 14th among all running backs in PlayerProfiler’s yards created metric, although he’s just 47th in yards created per rush; he’s currently getting by thanks to his workload, not his efficiency. In fairness to Fournette, he’s faced four consecutive defenses that posted top-16 marks in rush yards allowed per carry last season, and the Jaguars don’t have a starting guard or tackle graded among the top-40 run-blocking players at their position by PFF this season. Despite the rough start from an efficiency stand point, the Jaguars have run the ball more than anyone, and they get a Steelers defense that has already allowed five runs of 20-plus yards – tied for the second-most in the league.
The Steelers defense boasts talented defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt and Cam Heyward, as well as potentially the fastest linebacker in football, Ryan Shazier. Still, there are a few reasons to like the matchup for the Jaguars:
- Opposing offenses have posted either neutral or positive home/away rushing efficiency splits at Heinz Field during each of the past three seasons.
- Other than shutting down Isaiah Crowell in Week 1, the Steelers have allowed all four backs (min five carries) from the Vikings, Bears, and Ravens to average at least 5.3 yards per rush.
- The Steelers have allowed the third-most open field and second-level yards per rush (Football Outsiders).
The Steelers haven’t held a home-field advantage from a rush defense standpoint for years, and they have been gashed by five of six running backs they’ve faced this season in part due to their lack of ability to tackle and prevent big plays. Considering the Jaguars have the fourth-best Stuffed percentage (runs where the back is stuffed or tackled behind the line of scrimmage) this season, Fournette could be in for his typically massive workload with some room to run for once. There is risk of the 8.5-point favorite Steelers blowing out the Jaguars and forcing them out of a run-heavy script, but even a semi-close game could lead to plenty of opportunities for Fournette against a leaky run defense.
Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) vs. Green Bay Packers
Aside from the Cowboys’ disastrous team-wide effort in their Week 2 loss to the Broncos, Elliott has averaged at least 3.14 yards after contact per attempt in every game this season. Considering he managed just 2.91 yards after contact per rush last season, what’s been the difference? One potential answer: Explosive runs. Elliott averaged 1.46 runs of 15-plus yards in 2016; this season that mark has fallen to just one such run per game. So far the Cowboys have faced the second-, seventh-, eighth-, and 21st-best rush defenses in DVOA from a season ago. It’s not a reach to call the Packers the worst run defense they’ve seen this season, and Elliott is all too familiar with creating his own yards against them:
The Packers have allowed five runs of 20-plus yards this season and rank among the bottom-12 defenses in second-level and open-field yards. Blake Martinez, Clay Matthews, and Mike Daniels all rank among the top-13 run defense players at their position this season, but the Packers as a whole have been susceptible to big plays on the ground if the back is able to break through the line. Elliott has had 25-plus touches in all three of the Cowboys’ competitive games this season, and he gets a Packers defense that has allowed the second-highest Consistency Rating to all running backs through four weeks.
San Francisco 49ers (Carlos Hyde) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Hyde has slid into Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme to the tune of a career-high 4.9 yards per carry, and he’s largely responsible for the 49ers’ top-seven marks in both average second-level and open-field yards. Still, a few factors could prevent him from finding the secondary as often this week:
- The 49ers offense has converted the second-fewest runs with two yards or less to go on third or fourth down and on the goal line this season: They aren’t dominating the line of scrimmage by any means. The Colts haven’t been great on rush defense, but they held the Rams, Cardinals, and Browns to 85.6 rush yards per game before getting throttled by the Seahawks in Seattle.
- After playing 79 and 82 percent of snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, Hyde has played in 73 and 69 percent of snaps in the two weeks since. He was limited all of last week (and Wednesday) with a hip injury and was said to be a game-time decision heading into last Sunday’s game.
The Colts are allowing a league-high 34 points per game this season, but their pass defense is much more atrocious than their front seven. Each of their interior defenders and middle linebacker Jon Bostic have been graded as better against the run than the pass this season. Hyde has averaged 15-plus touches in each game and has the workload to fulfill his career-high $6,900 price tag on DraftKings, but he’ll face a Colts defense that has managed to hold seven of the nine running backs they’ve faced this season below their salary-based expectations.
Miami Dolphins (Jay Ajayi) vs. Tennessee Titans
Ajayi has had 13 touches in consecutive games after having at least 19 touches in each of his final 11 games last season. The Dolphins have scored six total points in their last eight quarters of football against the underwhelming Jets and Saints defenses, but they now get a Titans defense fresh off a 57-14 beatdown at the hands of the Houston Texans. The Titans defense has allowed the third-most points in the league this season, and their lack of talent in the secondary gives the Dolphins’ passing game as good a shot as they’ll have to get back on track. Tennessee has continued their funnel defense ways under defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, who has fielded a superior run defense compared to the pass in 10 of his last 15 seasons as a defensive coordinator.
When you score less than a full touchdown in two weeks of football, it’s hard to find many silver linings. Ajayi had 15 runs of 15-plus yards last season but just two so far in 2017. The Dolphins weren’t anybody’s idea of a good offensive line last season, ranking among the bottom-three lines in Stuffed rank in each of the past three seasons. Ajayi still doesn’t face any competition for touches in the backfield and ranks second in PFF’s Elusive Rating metric, but there’s about 900 pounds of beef between DaQuan Jones, Jurrell Casey, and Sylvester Williams in the Titans’ interior, and they’ve held opposing running backs to a -1.0 Plus/Minus and 35.7 percent Consistency Rating since the beginning of last season (per our Trends tool).
Honorable Mentions
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Bell’s snaps and touches have been in line with his enormous expectations during each of the past three weeks, and his averages of 4.11 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per target in Week 4 are a massive step in the right direction. He gets the Jaguars’ league-worst run defense as a home favorite and is the highest-rated running back in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model.
- Los Angeles Chargers (Melvin Gordon) vs. New York Giants: Gordon has been dealing with a lingering knee injury and has failed to play over 75 percent of the offense’s snaps in consecutive weeks after surpassing that threshold during each of the first two weeks of the season. Still, he’s one of six backs to average four targets and 15-plus carries per game since the beginning of last season, and he gets a Giants defense that ranks 31st in rush DVOA through four weeks.
- Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Shady has struggled on the road during his time in Buffalo, perhaps due to his quarterback’s severe home/away splits. Those splits won’t be easy to overcome against a Bengals defense that has posted top-10 marks in average DraftKings points per game and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs at home since the beginning of last season.
- Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley) vs. Seattle Seahawks: Gurley’s 91 percent opportunity share is the second-highest mark in the league behind only Elliott’s. Gurley’s receiving production has been second-to-none through four weeks, as he leads all backs with three receiving touchdowns and is just one yard behind Chris Thompson for the position’s receiving yardage crown. He’ll get the Seahawks’ 30th-ranked defense in DVOA against the run in Los Angeles next.
