The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split slate: There’s a two-game early slate starting at 12:10 pm ET and an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate have a salary of at least $10,500 on DraftKings:
This is a relatively weak slate for pitching. No pitcher has a K Prediction greater than 7.4, and only one has an opponent implied team total below 3.9 runs. This might be a slate where it makes sense to embrace volatility at the pitcher spot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially on DraftKings, where none of the stud pitchers have a Bargain Rating greater than five percent.
Carlos Carrasco looks to be the top pitching option today, and the fact that he’s available only on the early and all-day slates is another factor that weakens the pitching pool. He leads all options in moneyline odds (-193) and K Prediction (7.4), and pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically been strong options on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
The big concern with Carrasco is his recent Statcast data, particularly his average distance of 228 feet. That represents a differential of +20 feet compared to his 12-month average, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -90 on DraftKings. He’s still easily the most-appealing option among today’s pitchers, but even Carrasco isn’t a slam dunk.
Sonny Gray has been a consistent option on FanDuel since joining the Yankees, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his 10 starts:
He has a solid matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have the third-highest strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitchers at 24.8 percent. His K Prediction of 6.6 ranks second on the main slate, while his 3.6 opponent implied team total and -190 moneyline odds both rank first.
His recent Statcast data is very similar to Carrasco’s: He owns a +23-foot distance differential and +6 percent hard hit differential over his last two starts. The Yankees have been much quicker to pull Gray, however, resulting in a recent pitch count of just 88. He’s hit 100 pitches only once in his last five starts, and the Yankees’ bullpen is one of the team’s biggest strengths; Gray’s ceiling might not be as high as it appears. His $9,200 salary on FanDuel does result in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 98 percent, however, making him one of the safest options for cash games.
Values
Lance Lynn got absolutely rocked in his last start, allowing eight earned runs; he didn’t even make it through the first inning. Despite his horrendous results, however, his Statcast data from his last two starts is quite good. He’s allowed an average distance of 175 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 22 percent, all of which represent decreases compared to his 12-month averages. His distance differential of -26 feet is the top mark on the slate, and pairing it with his terrible recent fantasy production results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +85. He’s been priced down to just $6,400 on DraftKings for today’s start against the Chicago Cubs, and pitchers with comparable salaries, distance differentials, and Recent Batted Ball Luck scores have historically been excellent on DraftKings:
Another positive for Lynn is the increased speed on his fastball recently. His average of 93.2 miles per hour over his past two starts represents a differential of +1.4 miles per hour, and a differential that large combined with a comparable distance differential has resulted in a historical Plus/Minus of +2.88. Lynn offers a lot of appeal for GPPs.
Danny Duffy is another intriguing option on today’s slate. He’s making just his third start since coming off the disabled list, and he’s averaged just 75 pitches over his first two. He did increase his pitch count to 89 in his last outing, and it’s possible that he could take another step forward today.
He’s the second-largest favorite on today’s slate with -179 moneyline odds, and his opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs ranks second as well. He’s also posted a distance differential of -20 feet over his last two starts, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and moneyline odds have historically exceeded value on DraftKings:
The Royals game is currently projected for 68 degrees at first pitch, and the resulting Weather Rating of 79 is the top mark on the slate for pitchers.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s been awesome recently, owning an average Plus/Minus of +11.05 over his last four starts, but he has an awful matchup today against the Houston Astros. One factor working in his favor, however, is his average of 111 pitches over his last two starts — the top mark on the slate. On the other side of this matchup, Brad Peacock leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.1. Both of these guys will likely be low-owned in a game currently implied for many runs.
Kyle Hendricks: The stud pitcher not highlighted above, Hendricks has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 starts. His recent average pitch count of 109 trails only Rodriguez’s mark, and his Park Factor of 77 is one of the highest on the slate. He should be owned at a much lower rate than Gray; Pro subscribers can review the ownership for all players using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers are implied for 5.2 runs against Reds right-hander Sal Romano. The stacked batters are collectively in good recent form, with all but Travis Shaw owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +20 feet:
Domingo Santana has particularly impressive Statcast data over that time frame: He’s averaged a 278-foot distance, 100 MPH exit velocity, and 66 percent hard hit rate. Batters with comparable Statcast numbers and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.30 on DraftKings.
Despite their awesome collective Statcast data, the Brewers have underperformed recently. Neil Walker, Eric Thames, and Stephen Vogt all have Recent Batted Ball Luck scores of at least +31, and Vogt’s mark of +78 is one of the highest today. It will be tough to have a unique stack on a two-game slate, but stacking the Brewers without the leadoff and No. 3 hitter in their projected lineup should increase your chances. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the DFS Contests Dashboard.
FantasyDraft allows you to stack up to six batters from the same team, and the top six-man stack on the main slate belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
Oakland leads the main slate with an implied team total of 5.4 runs. They’re set to face Rangers right-hander Miguel Gonzalez, who has allowed an average distance of 224 feet over his last two starts. He’s also allowed fly balls at a 56 percent rate lately, which should give the Oakland batters plenty of home run upside in this contest.
The Oakland batters are collectively underpriced on FantasyDraft, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent. Marcus Semien is projected to bat leadoff, and he’s also in the best recent form of the stacked batters. He’s posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +16 feet, +2 miles per hour, and +3 percentage points, and leadoff hitters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.42.
Batters
No hitter on the slate has been as unlucky recently as Efren Navarro. He has ridiculous Statcast data, averaging a batted ball distance of 297 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50 percent over his last eight games. Despite those marks, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.75 over his last 10 games. That’s resulted in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +87, and, although he has a lefty-lefty matchup against Duffy, Navarro has a wOBA of .448 and ISO of .333 against southpaws over the past 12 months. He should be owned at a microscopic rate.
Ozzie Albies is projected to bat leadoff for Atlanta, and he’s on the positive side of his batting splits facing Marlins left-hander Dillon Peters. The switch hitter has a .410 wOBA and .208 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months, and he’s affordable at just $3,700 on DraftKings.
Finally, here’s what Aaron Judge has done over his last 10 games on DraftKings:
His Statcast data supports his awesome production, posting distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +19 feet, +1 miles per hour, and +4 percentage points. Considering his year-long stats are among the best on the slate, those are impressive numbers.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our MLB news blurbs:
