Last week saw plenty of home underdogs prevail in surprising fashion, dominant defensive performances from the Redskins and Jaguars, and 11 combined touchdowns from the Brady-Rodgers-Brees Triforce. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven pass-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
Featured
New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees) vs. Miami Dolphins
After losing by multiple scores to the Vikings and Patriots during the first two weeks of the season, Brees and the Saints got back on track with a dominant win in Carolina. A return to form from Michael Thomas was encouraging, but the important news is the pieces the Saints will welcome back this week:
- Willie Snead: Posted a 72-895-4 line last season and is expected to work as the offense’s No. 2 receiver from the slot.
- Terron Armstead: The Saints’ left tackle since 2014 returned to practice for the first time all season this week and is questionable for Sunday. Armstead allowed just seven total pressures on 240 pass block snaps last season, and his pass-blocking efficiency score was tied for the second-highest mark among all tackles to play at least 25 percent of their offense’s snaps.
- Zach Strief: Strief has started at right tackle since 2011 and posted the eighth-best pass-blocking efficiency score last season.
The Saints have posted top-seven marks in adjusted sack rate during each of the past two seasons, and the return of their starting tackles should be enough to handle the Dolphins’ mix of edge defenders, including savvy veteran Cameron Wake, first-round pick Charles Harris, and former Jaguar Andre Branch. With the 35-year-old Wake being used only in obvious passing-down situations, the Dolphins will have to rely on Harris and Branch — PFF’s No. 67 and No. 69 edge defenders in pass rushing through three weeks — on early downs. After allowing 320 yards to the Chargers and 230 yards to Josh McCown, the Dolphins currently boast the league’s single-worst defense in pass DVOA.
New England Patriots (Tom Brady) vs. Carolina Panthers
Brady was beat up in Week 1 by the Chiefs, ultimately completing 6/10 passes under pressure for 102 yards and zero touchdowns. In the two weeks since he has completed 16/20 passes for 339 yards and three touchdowns under pressure — good for a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. The Patriots’ offensive line hasn’t been perfect, but they get a Panthers defense that failed miserably in their only test of the season against the Saints and could be without starting cornerback Daryl Worley (shoulder) and Star Lotulelei (shoulder). While Julius Peppers has already gotten home for 2.5 sacks, the defense has struggled to consistently bother the quarterback, as their top-four edge defenders have combined for just two quarterback hits this season.
Going back to last season, Brady has posted a 26/0 touchdown/interception ratio when kept clean. He threw more incompletions in Week 1 than he has in the last two weeks, and the Panthers don’t possess the same caliber players as the Texans to consistently bother Brady in the pocket. Of course, all “bothering” Brady did was hold him to 378 yards and five touchdowns.
Detroit Lions (Matt Stafford) vs. Minnesota Vikings
When asked about Lions left tackle Greg Robinson, Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen said, “To be honest, he’s kind of lazy. He gets beat on the inside. He’s got to compete more.” Griffen is not wrong:
Three bad plays don’t make a tackle, but his 14 pressures allowed this season are tied for the seventh-most in the league. Overall, the Lions’ offensive line has posted the fifth-worst combined pass-blocking efficiency score in the league. Griffen is one of just 13 players to already have 14 pressures this season, and Stafford has seen an 8.6 percent increase in his amount of throws under pressure this year. The Vikings have allowed 17, 19, 10, 34, 17, 24, 22, 13, 10, and 14 points in their last 10 home games dating back to the beginning of last season, while posting a -1.2 adjusted net yards per attempt differential at U.S. Bank Stadium. Stafford has averaged 15.5 DraftKings PPG with a -1.51 Plus/Minus and a 33.3 percent Consistency Rating in his last six starts against the Vikings (per our Trends tool), and a fully-healthy #RhodesClosed secondary won’t make things easy for him when he does have time to throw.
Tennessee Titans (Marcus Mariota) vs. Houston Texans
Mariota has attempted just 21.3 percent of his passes under pressure this season – the third-lowest mark in the league. Now he gets a Texans defense that limited him to a 44.8 percent completion rate a season ago, as well as the third-worst quarterback rating of his career. That was without J.J. Watt, whose 14 pressures this season are the fourth-most among all interior defenders. He’s yet to reach the quarterback, but outside linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus help keep offensive lines honest across the board. While the Titans boast one of the better offensive lines in the league and have yet to allow a sack this season, they’ve finished 16th, 32nd, and 26th in adjusted sack rate over the past three seasons: This team is built to run the football.
The Texans haven’t allowed over 250 passing yards at home since Week 3 of the 2015 season. Tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin are as good a pair as there is in the league, though both have been graded as better run blockers than pass blockers this season. The Texans and Titans have called the sixth- and fifth-most run plays through three weeks, and it’s hard to find much reason for optimism in a Titans passing attack still without No. 5 overall pick Corey Davis (hamstring).
Honorable Mentions
- Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson) vs. Indianapolis Colts: John Simon and Jabaal Sheard are two of just 30 edge defenders to rack up double-digit pressures this season, and they get a Seahawks offensive line that has posted the third-worst combined pass-blocking efficiency score this season. The Seahawks’ +12.5 PPG differential at home was the largest in the league last season, but Wilson has averaged just 16.5 DraftKings PPG with a -1.92 Plus/Minus in 13 career games as a double-digit home favorite.
- Arizona Cardinals (Carson Palmer) vs. San Francisco 49ers: The Cardinals’ unwillingness to change their offense has helped result in Palmer taking a league-high 27 hits through three weeks. Still, the 49ers have the 30th-ranked defense in pass DVOA and rank second-to-last in adjusted sack rate. Palmer has been the league’s fifth-highest scoring quarterback on DraftKings over the past two weeks.
- Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz) vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa have combined for the sixth-most pressures in the league among each team’s top pass-rushing edge defenders, but the Chargers’ unstoppable force will meet immovable objects in tackles Lane Johnson and Jason Peters – two of PFF’s top-10 tackles in pass-blocking efficiency this season. There’s a lot on the line for the winners of these battles, as Wentz has averaged 7.42 yards per attempt when kept clean this season vs. 5.69 Y/A when under pressure.
