In the Regression Report, I leverage real data to find quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, or tight ends with notable data points that suggest impending regression. We will focus on game flow, targets, and team-specific usage in conjunction with our weekly Market Share Report.
For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Fantasy Football Dashboard.
Chris Thompson, RB
Regression data points: 0.81 points per opportunity (PPO), 13 yards per touch, and 77 receiving yards per game
Thompson exploded on Sunday Night Football for a ridiculous 6-150-1 stat line through the air against the Raiders. He caught passes for 20, 23, 19, 16, four, and 74 yards; nearly half of his yardage came on one play. He’s been given just nine touches per game this year, and Redskins coach Jay Gruden has already said Thompson will not see more work. His 0.81 PPO through three weeks trails only Kareem Hunt‘s mark of 0.91; for context, Mike Gillislee led the league with 0.57 PPO in 2016. Per the Week 4 Market Share Report, Thompson has played just 43.1 percent of his team’s offensive snaps over the first three weeks, and his 0.61 points per snap (PPS) would have also led the league last year. This type of elite efficiency is very likely to regress. Via my Rushing Expectation methodology, Thompson’s efficiency as a runner and receiver last year were in the 11th and 15th percentiles of a 60-player sample.
Melvin Gordon, RB
Positive regression data points: Four red zone attempts, one touch inside the 10-yard line
In 2016, Gordon’s 50 red zone carries and 17 inside the five-yard line trailed only David Johnson‘s (53, 22) and LeGarrette Blount‘s (68, 24) totals. His four red zone carries per game ranked fourth in the NFL. Through three games this season, he has just four red zone carries (26th) and only one inside the five-yard line. The Chargers haven’t been in scoring position often, but this still doesn’t look right:
Gordon will likely see positive regression in the red zone, although he does have a tough matchup in Week 4 against an Eagles team that allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings PPG and touchdowns on the ground in 2016.
Eli Manning, QB
Regression data points: 73.5 percent completion rate
Don’t look now, but Manning’s 73.5 percent completion rate trails only Alex Smith‘s 77.4 mark for the NFL lead. That said, Manning is 15th in yards per attempt (7.1) and 24th in quarterback rating (42.6); it’s not like he’s lighting the world on fire. His accuracy could regress in the coming weeks: In his 13-year career, he has never had better than a 63.1 percent completion rate across an entire season. The offensive line was surprisingly strong in pass protection last year — they finished second in adjusted sack rate — but the unit has regressed to 16th in 2017. That’s a concerning sign, as Manning posted a poor 63.3 QBR while under pressure (Pro Football Focus) last year. That said, regression may not come this week against a Buccaneers team that surrendered the 16th-highest QBR to opposing quarterbacks last year. They’re dead last with one sack so far this season and just gave up a 369-3 stat line to Case Keenum in Week 3.
Eric Decker, WR
Positive regression data point: 36.4 red zone target market share with zero touchdowns
Coming into this year, Marcus Mariota had completed 59.0 percent of his pass attempts with 26 touchdowns and zero interceptions when targeting a receiver in the red zone. Decker’s yardage totals have gone up each week, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets into the paint; he’s posted the seventh-highest red zone target market share in the league so far this season. He’s typically a TD machine; this is per our Titans Fantasy Preview:
In his three years with the Jets, while catching passes from Geno Smith, Michael Vick, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Decker averaged 15.34 DraftKings PPG with a +3.75 Plus/Minus and a 69.7 percent Consistency Rating while scoring a touchdown in 19 of his 33 games.
Per our NFL Matchups Dashboard, Decker should run most of his routes in Week 4 against Kareem Jackson — PFF’s ninth-worst graded corner this year — in the slot, and Houston has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to the position to start the season.
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