It’s a night in which ignoring your family is crucial as numerous values become fodder if those ahead of them are declared active — Cory Joseph, Langston Galloway, Ryan Anderson, just to name a few. For now at least, feel free to sit back and preview the calm before the storm.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-3)
Implied Total: 103.3 – 100.3, O/U: 203
Dennis Schroder has produced 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in his last three games, but Jeff Teague, who’s averaged 27.3 minutes over that span, continues to see more run. Outside of his last performance, however, it should be noted that Teague failed to meet expectations by an average of -1.79 points in his previous eight performances. Al Horford (most Pro Trends among centers) and Paul Millsap (third-highest projected floor of this slate) remain the best cash plays in Atlanta.
Ian Mahinmi returned for the Pacers and recorded a line of 12-10 in 29.4 minutes. Even so, Myles Turner scored 25 DraftKings points in 18.1 minutes – he’s exceeded expectations by an average of +17.79 points in his last five games. With Mahinmi and Lavoy Allen (27.4 minutes against the Clippers) each logging more time than Turner, it makes sense to fade him tonight (although it should be noted that he’s the highest Rated among the three in our Phan Model). As for Paul George, I’m done trying to pick his spots. Just know he has a projected floor +10.7 points higher than anyone else at his position.
Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards (-7)
Implied Total: 109 – 101.5, O/U: 210.5
In their last two games alone, the Nuggets (Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 points allowed to off-ball guards) have allowed Kyle Korver and Avery Bradley to shoot a combined 53.8%, exceeding expectations by an average of +10.98 points. Bradley Beal – implied to score 28.15 points – likely won’t log anything more than 25 minutes, but Garrett Temple could flourish given additional run. He would remain strictly a tournament play as he’s shot 20% in his last two performances.
Danilo Gallinari has exceeded expectations in 70% of his last 10 games. Despite the Wizards having an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.2 points at his position, the Nuggets have a pace differential of +2.1 in the second-highest implied total of the night. Given their current injury situation (Darrell Arthur, Joffrey Lauvergne, Jameer Nelson, and Nikola Jokic all game-time decisions), paying up for Gallinari makes sense, especially if not looking to save at the position with other options (like Derrick Williams, who will probably have the highest ownership among small forwards given recency bias).
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors (-10)
Implied Total: 105 – 95, O/U: 200
With Kyle Lowry considered a game-time decision, I look more to DeMar DeRozan than any other Raptor (Cory Joseph included). Without Lowry on the court, DeRozan’s usage of 29.4 has increased to 36.6. Joseph makes for the more valuable play as he’s implied to score only 15.27 points against a Knicks back court allowing +2.7 points above expectations at the position, but you don’t have to squint too hard to see DeRozan atop his position at the end of the night.
Carmelo Anthony has already been ruled out, meaning we can all go back to the Derrick Williams-well once more. Though Lance Thomas is expected to draw another start, it’s Williams who’s recorded a team-high usage of 26.1 without Anthony, exceeding expectations by an average of +23.44 points in his last two games. Langston Galloway is also worth a look if Jose Calderon (questionable) is ruled out – he’s remained off-ball in the Knicks two most-used lineups with Calderon off the court this season.
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5)
Implied Total: 100 – 94.5, O/U: 194.5
Throughout the month of January (15 games), both Greg Monroe and Khris Middleton have failed to meet expectations in only 6% of performances. Monroe, for example, continues to have nothing but upside as he’s exceeded expectations by an average of +8.75 points over his last 10 games. Same goes for Middleton, who’s exceeded by +6.26 in that span. Given the latter’s projected floor of 22.5 points (as well as John Henson not being available to backup Monroe tonight), both are fine (if not advised) for any and all cash lineups.
With Tony Allen and Jeff Green healthy, Matt Barnes remains the liability in their rotation. The Bucks have the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to small forwards in tonight’s slate, but one is much safer depending on Allen – 33 DraftKings points in 40.3 minutes in their last game – than chasing the 47.5 points Green produced. (I’d imagine that’s the equivalent of chasing dragons with Randy Marsh.) Outside of that group, it should surprise no one to see Marc Gasol with the second-highest projected floor at his position (making him one of the stronger plays in cash).
Sacramento Kings (-3.5) at New Orleans Pelicans
Implied Total: 109.5 – 106, O/U: 215.5
I’m done fretting over Tyreke Evans potentially cutting into anyone’s minutes for the time being. Over his last five games, his 23.8 minutes pale in comparison to Jrue Holiday’s 27.9. He’s also recorded a lower usage in that span (26.5 as opposed to the 28.0 that Holiday has accounted for). With Norris Cole continuing to start (averaging 29.2 minutes in his last five performances) and stay off-ball no matter who’s in alongside him, both he and Holiday make for the better tournament plays (and in Holiday’s case, cash) in New Orleans’ back court. Now’s probably also the time to remind you that Ryan Anderson has averaged differentials of +9.0 minutes, +2.4 rebounds, and +1.8 DraftKings points on an additional +3.2 field goal attempts without Anthony Davis this season.
The time to fade DeMarcus Cousins was the second leg of their most recent back-to-back (in which he vomited 28.25 DraftKings points against Portland), not tonight. Sacramento, after all, is favored by only 3.5 points in what Vegas has labeled the highest implied total of the night. With Rudy Gay already ruled out, Willie Cauley-Stein should also warrant strong consideration as he’s averaged 25.4 DraftKings points on 25.8 minutes without the former this season – those averages plummet to 17.4 in 18.9 when Gay starts.
Chicago Bulls (-8.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 104.5 – 96, O/U: 200.5
Though Pau Gasol remains the obvious play at center – the Lakers own the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed at his position in tonight’s slate – the absences of Joakim Noah and Nikola Mirotic have essentially opened the door (again) for Bobby Portis. Implied to score only 14.81 points, Fred Hoiberg should have no choice but to play Portis upwards of 25-plus minutes. Even in averaging only 9.9 minutes over his last 10 games, Portis is mustering a rate of 0.96 DraftKings points per minute. Though he makes for a tough roster in cash (unless you have zero self respect, in which case, I’ll be fine), he remains one of the more valuable tournament plays of the night.
Julius Randle’s salary is the highest it’s been in over a month. Even so, Byron Scott has (finally) mentioned that he’ll start Randle in the next two games. Despite Chicago’s entirely neutral Opponent Plus/Minus at his position, note Randle has exceeded expectations by +4.02 points in his last 10 games. Both he and D’Angelo Russell (second-highest Projected Plus/Minus among point guards) warrant the most consideration for the Lakers in tournaments.
Good luck tonight!
