Week 2’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups were highlighted by dominant performances from Julio Jones and Mike Evans, a lockdown effort from Xavier Rhodes on Antonio Brown, and an uninspiring prime-time return from Odell Beckham Jr. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Eagles Secondary
Beckham’s 34 snaps were the fewest among the Giants’ top-three receivers during their Monday night loss to the Lions, but he escaped the game without a setback. Now he gets an Eagles defense without No. 1 corner Ron Darby (dislocated ankle) and potentially three other defensive backs who haven’t practiced all week and are questionable for Sunday with hamstring injuries. Beckham’s five targets in Week 2 were his fewest since the first two games of his career. That target share will almost certainly grow as he gets healthier; his 28.3 percent target share last season was the fourth-highest mark among all wide receivers. He’s one of just five receivers to have 20-plus targets in a game since entering the league in 2014, and he’s the only receiver with two such games (both against the Eagles).
The Eagles’ secondary struggled against wide receivers even before their recent rash of injuries, ranking among the bottom-seven units in both average DraftKings points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus allowed to the position last season. Overall, only the Packers allowed more DraftKings PPG to outside receivers in 2016. While Tyreek Hill and Terrelle Pryor have combined to post an underwhelming 10-109-0 line on 17 targets against the Eagles this season, the former was efficient with just six targets, and the latter’s third-highest drop rate in the league helped prevent a bigger day.
Eli Manning has posted below-average marks in yards per attempt and touchdown rate over the first two weeks of the season, and the Eagles’ talented front seven won’t make things easy for an offensive line with three starters ranked outside of the top-45 at their position by PFF. Still, only Julio has averaged more DraftKings PPG than Beckham on the road since 2014, and nobody has topped Beckham’s average of 20.57 PPG against the Eagles (minimum three games) over that span.
Rashard Higgins vs. Colts Secondary
Higgins led the Browns wide receivers in snaps last week. The team moved him all over the formation and got solid results: seven catches for 95 yards on 11 targets. Although DeShone Kizer was intercepted twice when targeting Higgins, each pass was off target and wasn’t the result of a mistake from the second-year receiver. Kizer has thrown passes of 15-plus yards in the air at the highest rate among all quarterbacks through two weeks, and only the Saints have allowed more passes of 20-plus yards this season than the Colts.
With Corey Coleman (hand, IR) out and Kenny Britt falling out of favor with the coaching staff, it was especially encouraging to see the manner in which the Browns revolved their passing game around Higgins last Sunday:
Higgins gained 2,811 receiving yards and scored 25 touchdowns during his final two seasons at Colorado State. He’s not a freak athlete or specimen, but he does get a Colts defense that has allowed 300-plus passing yards to Jared Goff and Carson Palmer this season. A whopping 91 percent of Higgins’ snaps came out of the slot, meaning he’ll see plenty of fifth-round rookie Nate Hairston, who played wide receiver at Temple before switching to cornerback in 2015. Currently PFF’s 70th-overall cornerback, it’s safe to say Hairston hasn’t been much of an upgrade for a Colts defense that could once again be without No. 1 cornerback Vontae Davis (groin, questionable).
DeVante Parker vs. Jets Secondary
Jay Cutler targeted Jarvis Landry 15 times in his matchup against former undrafted free agent Trevor Williams and rookie Desmond King last week, but Parker’s nine targets were still the fifth-most of his career. He managed to rack up a team-high 85 yards against Casey Hayward, who allowed the third-lowest QB rating among all full time cornerbacks last season. Parker averaged just 1.3 yards of separation, which is tied for the fourth-lowest mark among all wide receivers (NFL Next Gen Stats), but Cutler threw it to “Faster Alshon” anyway, and Parker didn’t disappoint.
The Jets have historically boasted a reverse-funnel defense, but the Bills and Raiders found success doing basically whatever they wanted during Weeks 1 and 2. They’ve allowed a league-high 66 points this season, with opponents averaging top-six marks in both pass and run yards per attempt. The Dolphins didn’t shy away from using Jay Ajayi against the Jets last season (21.5 carries per game), but Parker has beatable matchups against Juston Burris and Morris Claiborne; both rank outside of PFF’s top-70 cornerbacks this season.
A.J. Green vs. Packers Secondary
After scoring a combined nine points through their first two games, the Bengals fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese in favor of quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor. After last week’s Thursday night loss, Green said, “We can live with Andy missing a throw here or there, but when it’s crunch time we’ve got find a way to get our playmakers the ball.” The Bengals have had an extra long week off to figure out a way to get their best player more involved in the offense, and a Packers defense that allowed the most DraftKings PPG to outside receivers last season might be just what the doctor ordered. Rookie John Ross played (and quickly fumbled) last week, and his speed should theoretically draw some attention away from Green. Dalton has averaged a career-low 3.2 adjusted yards per attempt and posted a 0/4 touchdown/interception ratio through two weeks. There’s nowhere to go but up for this offense, and Green currently sits atop Adam Levitan’s FanDuel Model.
Newcomers Davon House and Kevin King each rank among the top-12 corners in yards per cover snap allowed this season, although Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall rank among the bottom-four defensive backs in the same metric. There remain plenty of holes in the Packers secondary, as evidenced by Jones going for 5-108-0 on Sunday night despite the entire world knowing the Falcons wanted to get him the ball. Green isn’t quite at Jones’ level, but he was pretty close last season, averaging just 0.32 fewer DraftKings PPG with significantly less ownership.
This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Potential Fades
Mike Evans vs. Vikings Secondary
Evans was a quick beneficiary of the DeSean Jackson effect, converting his nine targets into a 7-93-1 line and mentioning that “it was great” to see only “maybe one or two double-teams.” He probably won’t see many more double-teams this Sunday against the Vikings, but he should see plenty of Rhodes. Michael Thomas and Brown combined for just five catches for 50 yards and zero touchdowns this season when guarded by Rhodes, who at 6’1″ and 210 pounds is one of very few corners who at least has a chance to physically match up with the 6’5″ and 231-pound Evans. Rhodes combines this size with fast-twitch athleticism that helped him hang with Brown on a route-by-route basis last week:
Winston has already fed Evans two end zone targets in less than four quarters of football, and Evans’ size and weekly high-target ceiling make him somewhat matchup-proof. Still, the Vikings have faced 10 wide receivers priced at $7,000 or higher on DraftKings since the beginning of last season, and only Jordy Nelson has managed to surpass his salary-based expectation. The Vikings allowed 1.2 fewer adjusted net yards per pass attempt at home last season and ranked among the top-three defenses in both DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to receivers (per our Trends tool).
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Patriots Secondary
Hopkins’ 29 targets are four more than the next-closest player this season, but a large target load might not be enough to help swing his one-sided ‘rivalry’ with the Patriots:
Hopkins has never surpassed 80 yards or scored a touchdown in four career games against the Patriots (including the playoffs). Hopkins isn’t the smallest or slowest receiver you’ll see, but he won’t hold much of an advantage in either category against Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore. What Hopkins can rely on is volume, as Deshaun Watson has targeted Nuk on 24 of his 47 pass attempts this season. But that volume has been there for the better part of the past three seasons, and Hopkins has surpassed 100 yards just once in his past 16 games while scoring three touchdowns. He’ll need to get the job done on a Texans offense currently implied to score a slate-low 15.25 points.
Michael Thomas vs. Panthers Secondary
Thomas’ sophomore campaign hasn’t gotten off to a great start, as he’s posted a combined 10-134-0 line after two weeks. Now he’ll travel to Carolina to face off against second-year corners Daryl Worley and James Bradberry. These two 6’1″ and 205-plus pound corners fit the Panthers’ zone-heavy scheme to perfection, and they are aided by All-World linebacker Luke Kuechly, who has helped the defense allow 3.88 fewer PPG and 29.91 pass yards when manning the middle since 2015.
Thomas’ 18 targets are the eighth-most among all receivers this season, but four other Saints receivers are also in double digits. Thomas was targeted five or fewer times on just four occasions last season, but that happened twice against the Panthers. Overall, the Panthers have allowed 2.9 DraftKings points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months – the third-lowest mark in Week 3.
Honorable Mentions
- Antonio Brown vs. Bears Secondary: Brown has historically shared his quarterback’s severe home/away splits, but he has also averaged the fifth-most DraftKings PPG on the road since 2014 with an ownership discount.
- Julio Jones vs. Lions Secondary: Darius Slay exploded on the scene during his second year in the league, working as the top corner for the league’s No. 2 defense in DVOA against WR1s. The Lions haven’t ranked higher than 24th since thanks to two injury-riddled seasons from Slay, and while he’s looked healthy to start the season, Jones is a different beast than the elderly and hobbled receivers Slay has faced from the Cardinals and Giants this season.
- Packers WRs vs. Bengals Secondary: Jordy Nelson (quad) has returned to practice; Randall Cobb (shoulder) has not. Geronimo Allison is locked in as the team’s No. 4 receiver. Allison averaged a 3.3-59.3-0.67 line in three games without Cobb last season, while Davante Adams went off for an average 7.3-49.7-1 line on 10 targets per game. The Bengals have allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season, but Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau is a different beast than Deshaun Watson and Joe Flacco.
- Dez Bryant vs. Cardinals Secondary: Bryant has faced the first- and fourth-best defenses in pass DVOA from 2016 already this season, and now he gets the third-best. He’s expected to see shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson, who is every bit as physical and athletic as Bryant. Peterson posted the third-best coverage snaps per reception rate among full time corners last season and is on pace to allow just 176 receiving yards this season, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.
- Keenan Allen vs. Chiefs Secondary: Marcus Peters doesn’t move into the slot, so Allen and his average of 10.54 targets per game since 2015 will instead face off against Phillip Gaines and his average of 2.25 yards allowed per cover snap from a season ago – the second-worst mark among all cornerbacks to play at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps last season.
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- Julio Jones vs. Darius Slay
- Dez Bryant vs. Patrick Peterson
- Alshon Jeffery vs. Janoris Jenkins (questionable)
- Mike Evans vs. Xavier Rhodes
