The DraftKings NFL Pick‘Em format allows owners to create lineups with no salary cap. Players are assigned to eight different tiers. Owners pick one player from each tier to create their rosters. Below we break down the tiers and some of the players in each group for the 14-game main slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL Content Dashboard.
Tier 1: Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, Seahawks
The Patriots-Saints and Packers-Falcons games have Vegas totals well above 55.0 points, and we expect quarterbacks from those games to have a collective ownership rate of at last 50 percent in the classic format on DraftKings. With only eight quarterbacks to choose from in Tier 1 and four being from those two games, this is a spot to be contrarian in Pick’Em guaranteed prize pools. Next to the other quarterbacks in this tier, Russell Wilson will likely have low ownership. The Seahawks are currently implied to 27.75 points against the 49ers, good for the fourth-highest team total.
Tom Brady, Patriots
The GOAT’s first game of 2017 was disastrous, but Tom Brady is in a great bounceback spot. The Patriots are implied for a slate-high 31.5 points, and the over/under for their game is 57.0 points. Although Brady’s on the road, the Superdome is essentially the Coors Field of football. Brady leads all quarterbacks in median projection and is arguably the slate’s top option. Since price isn’t a concern in Pick’Em, expect Brady to be the chalk. For more on Brady, see our Week 2 quarterback breakdown.
Tier 2: Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
Following a Week 1 bye, Jameis Winston and the Bucs enter Week 2 as 7.0-point home favorites against the Bears. Winston has an improved surrounding cast this year with the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. The Bears did a good job last week in holding the high-octane Falcons offense to 23 points, but their secondary is exploitable: The season is young, but the Bears rank 28th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). One of three home quarterbacks in this tier, Winston could have elevated ownership.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals
It probably doesn’t help Carson Palmer that David Johnson and John Brown are out, but even on the road he’s in a prime spot against the Colts defense, which is 31st in pass DVOA and just last week made Jared Goff look like a competent quarterback. Although Palmer’s three Week 1 interceptions suggest that he’s no longer an NFL-caliber quarterback, he easily leads this tier in projected ceiling and could have depressed ownership because of his performance last week.
Tier 3: Elite Running Backs & Wide Receivers
Julio Jones, Falcons
The last time the Packers and Falcons faced off, it was the NFC Championship game, and Julio Jones went off with a 9-180-2 performance. Healthy and at home, Jones is facing a suspect secondary and will run most of his routes against a combination of Damarious Randall and Davon House, who have Pro Football Focus grades of 36.3 and 43.5. His median projection of 22.0 is 1.9 points higher than that of any other receiver. His ownership in Tier 3 will be high, but he can’t be fully faded in this matchup. For more on Julio, see our Week 2 wide receiver breakdown.
Jordy Nelson, Packers
Perhaps surprisingly, Jordy Nelson has the second-highest projected ceiling on the entire slate. Nelson might have reduced ownership in this tier given the perceived difficulty of his matchup with Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant, but Jordy’s dominance near the goal line (a league-leading 15 targets inside the 10-yard line last year) makes him an intriguing play.
Tier 4: Near-Elite Running Backs & Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas, Saints
Despite his matchup with impressive cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore, Michael Thomas leads the slate with a projected ceiling of 32.7 points. Within this tier most people will likely prefer a running back or Mike Evans to Thomas, who could be an undervalued member of Patriots-Saints game stacks.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott is almost a matchup-proof player, and the Broncos defense finished only 21st in rush DVOA last season. Elliott is an elite pivot play who will likely have reduced ownership, and he has the highest median projection in the slate. Last year the Cowboys led the league with a 48.7 percent rush rate. They will likely employ a run-heavy game plan in Denver. For more on Zeke, see our Week 2 running back breakdown.
Tier 5: High-End Flexes
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest players in the NFL, and he’s facing an Eagles secondary lacking speed. Hill will see plenty of cornerback Jalen Mills, who was recorded at the combine with 4.61 ‘wheels.’ Hill finished second in points per snap last season and first in points per opportunity. In his last 12 regular season games he has 11 touchdowns.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
A lackluster Week 1 for Doug Baldwin should keep his ownership in check in a juicy matchup against the 49ers at home, where tends to overperform: 16.42 DraftKings point per game at home vs. 13.97 on the road. With a 75.9 percent catch rate since 2015, Baldwin is likely to produce as long as he gets his targets. Stacking Baldwin with Wilson will likely be a contrarian strategy for tournaments.
Tier 6: Mid-Tier Running Backs & Wide Receivers
Randall Cobb/Davante Adams, Packers
Both non-Jordy Packers wide receivers are in this tier, which sadly means that they are not stackable together. Davante Adams boasts higher projections in our Models and last week was fifth with 127 air yards, but Randall Cobb did lead the team last week 13 targets. Given the high total of their game, Adams and Cobb could have the highest ownership in this tier.
Stefon Diggs, Vikings
Fresh off a 7-93-2 Monday night performance, Stefon Diggs is a high-floor, high-ceiling receiver who might be available at an ownership discount because of Adams and Cobb. Lining up all over the formation in Week 1 with 24 routes run from out wide and eight from the slot (Pro Football Focus), Diggs when healthy has playmaking potential.
Tier 7: Mid-Tier Flexes
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Christian McCaffrey has a highly favorable matchup as the Panthers are 6.5-point home favorites against the Bills, whose defense last year was 30th in rush DVOA. While Jonathan Stewart limitx McCaffrey’s short-yardage opportunities, his big-play ability gives him the highest projected ceiling among all running backs in this tier.
Chris Hogan, Patriots
Danny Amendola‘s absence will shift some ownership toward Chris Hogan, but his ceiling projection is so much higher than that of anyone else in the tier that he might be worth the elevated ownership. He provides leverage in tournaments on other Patriots skill position players, and his 20.6-yard average depth of target suggests that Brady is willing to look to Hogan for big plays. Hogan has the speed to dominate one of the weakest secondaries in the league, and he’s slated to run many of his routes against 2016 undrafted free agent De’Vante Harris.
Tier 8: Mid-Tier Running Backs & Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen, Chargers
Keenan Allen will be chalky, but he’s the no-brainer selection. He’s averaged 10.6 targets per game since 2015, and that includes two games he’s exited early due to injury. He has the highest median projection of the tier and could easily lead the cohort in scoring without hitting paydirt.
T.Y. Hilton, Colts
It’s hard to go with T.Y. Hilton, who has just 62.5 yards per game without quarterback Andrew Luck vs. 76.9 with him, but Hilton is a top-12 talent with five straight seasons of 1,000 yards. Getting a player like him in Tier 8 at what’s likely to be low ownership is a gift in tournaments. It’s possible/probable that new quarterback Jacoby Brissett could be an upgrade on Scott Tolzien. Although the Cardinals were third last year in pass DVOA, in Week 1 they allowed a league-high 64.2 DraftKings point to wide receivers.
Good luck this week and be sure to research for yourself with our entire suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
