The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is relatively top-heavy in terms of pitching talent. Three pitchers have salaries of at least $12,000 on DraftKings, and they’re the only three pitchers with salaries above $9,200:
No offense to Robbie Ray, but the battle for the top spot on today’s slate comes down to Chris Sale and Luis Severino. Sale leads the slate with a $13,100 price tag and is taking on a Rays team he has absolutely dominated this year. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.86 and a Consistency Rating of 100 percent over five matchups, recording at least 12 strikeouts in four of them. The Rays have the second-worst strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitchers this season at 25.3 percent, and Sale’s resulting K Prediction of 9.5 is the top mark on the slate.
Unsurprisingly, Sale also has elite Vegas data in this matchup: He leads the slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs, and his moneyline odds of -183 ranks third. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically done well on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
In addition to his strikeout prowess, Sale has also excelled in terms of his recent batted ball profile. He’s allowed an average distance of 185 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 24 percent, all of which represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. His distance differential of -27 feet is particularly impressive and increases the historical Plus/Minus of the above trend to +4.01. Finally, Tropicana Field has historically been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league and rewards Sale with a high Park Factor of 84. It’s tough to find any reason to fault Sale in today’s start.
The Yankees are implied for 5.6 runs today, resulting in slate-high -248 moneyline odds for Severino. Odds that large have been significant for fantasy purposes; comparable favorites have historically dominated on FanDuel:
Like Sale, Severino has also been in excellent recent form. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.04 over his last 10 starts, and his Statcast data over his last two starts has been particularly impressive: 167-foot average distance, 89 MPH exit velocity, and 30 percent hard hit rate. His K Prediction of 8.1 ranks fourth on today’s slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and recent distances have historically done well:
Ultimately, the decision between Sale and Severino could come down to salary. Severino is $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,200 cheaper on FanDuel, and with Coors Field on the slate those savings could be important. It will be interesting to see how the ownership between these two pitchers shakes out; that can be reviewed once the slate starts using the DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
After the top-three pitchers, it’s a pretty big drop-off to the next tier. Let’s start with Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer. The Indians extended their win streak to a ridiculous 22 games on Thursday, and Bauer is a -208 favorite to make it 23 today. At only $9,200, he is affordable on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and odds have historically returned value:
His matchup against the Royals limits his upside a bit in the strikeout department, however. Their projected lineup has a 12-month splits-adjusted strikeout rate of just 20.0 percent – the second-lowest mark on the slate – and Bauer’s K Prediction of 6.1 ranks just 16th. He has averaged 103 pitches over his last two starts, so hopefully he can overcome a lower than normal strikeout rate with his length.
Bud Norris is expected to draw the start for the Angels today, and he’s an interesting option for those willing to take a risk in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s second on the slate with a K Prediction of 9.0, and at just $4,700 on DraftKings, he’s also one of the cheapest of today’s starters. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically been awesome:
Those pitchers have also offered an Upside Rating of 30 percent, which is ideal for GPPs. The big downside with Norris is his potential pitch count in this start. Despite being a starter in the past, Norris has served mostly in the bullpen this season. He’s specifically been used as a short reliever, averaging just 12 pitches per outing over the past 15 days. If he can make it through even five innings he has an excellent shot of paying off his salary, but there’s also a strong chance that he’s looking at an extremely short outing today.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: He should be the lowest-owned of the big three pitchers today, but that doesn’t mean he lacks upside. He has a K Prediction of 8.3 and opponent implied team total of 3.4, and pitching in San Francisco results in a slate-high Park Factor of 94. Pitchers with comparable numbers in all three categories have a historical Plus/Minus of +9.13 on FanDuel, where Ray also leads the slate with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Mark Leiter: He’s another cheap DraftKings option at just $6,400, and unlike Norris, he should have no pitch count limitations on today’s slate. He has a K Prediction of 6.8 and a distance differential of -9 feet over his last two starts; pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.39 and Upside Rating of 15 percent.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. Today’s top-rated six-man FantasyDraft stack (using the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies are at Coors Field today, and they unsurprisingly lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.9 runs (per the Vegas Dashboard). As a team, the Rockies seem underpriced on FantasyDraft, with each of the stacked batters owning a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent:
Despite playing eight straight games on the road, a lot of the stacked batters have strong distance differentials over the past 15 days. Leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon has crushed at Coors this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.17 on FantasyDraft, and he’s posted a distance differential of +12 feet and a hard hit differential of +19 percentage points. Carlos Gonzalez has been the hottest Rockies hitter recently, with an average Plus/Minus of +6.56 over his last 10 games, and his distance differential of +44 feet is one of the largest on the slate.
The only downside to the Rockies is their likely high ownership. This straight stack of the Rockies’ 1-6 hitters has a chance to be the highest-owned stack on the slate – which can be reviewed using the new DFS Contests Dashboard – so being contrarian with the other roster spots will be more important than usual.
The Rockies dominate the top five-man DraftKings stacks as well, so we’ll instead focus on the other side of the Coors game:
The Padres’ implied team total of 5.3 runs is significantly lower than the Rockies’ total and is tied for just fourth on the slate. They are significantly cheaper, however, with this five-man stack costing just $19,200 on DraftKings. To put that in perspective, stacking the top-five Rockies batters will set you back $23,900, and that difference in salary can be the difference between an elite pitcher and an average one.
First baseman Wil Myers leads the team with a distance differential of +33 feet over his last 12 games, and batters with comparable differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.19 on DraftKings. He also has nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his Bargain Rating of 97 percent is one of the top marks on the slate.
Batters
No projected starter on today’s slate has been as unlucky as Gregory Polanco recently on FanDuel. He’s posted an awful Plus/Minus of -4.37 over his last 10 games, and yet his Statcast data over that time frame is actually excellent, posting a differential of +24 feet. That results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +75, and batters with comparable differentials and Recent Batted Ball Luck scores have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.88 on FanDuel.
Aaron Judge hit two home runs yesterday and leads today’s slate with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel. His Statcast data over his last 12 games has been ridiculously good – a 271-foot average distance, 98 MPH exit velocity, and 50 percent hard hit rate – and batters with comparable numbers have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.14 on FanDuel.
If you’re looking for a cheap batter to fit an expensive pitcher or stack, consider Blue Jays projected leadoff hitter Richard Urena. He’s only $3,100 on DraftKings and has an excellent matchup against Twins right-hander Bartolo Colon, who has a 6.41 ERA and has allowed 23 home runs this season.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
