Week 1’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups were highlighted by Antonio Brown‘s 182-yard explosion, Janoris Jenkins once again getting the better of Dez Bryant, as well as mammoth performances from both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen against the perennially-terrible Saints secondary. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Julio Jones vs. Packers Secondary
Jones converted his five targets into a 4-66-0 line against the Bears last week but now finds himself in a prime bounce-back spot: He averaged a 7.7-144.2-0.8 line in his six games after being held under 70 yards last season. This time he gets to go against essentially the same defense he torched for a 9-180-2 line on 12 targets in last season’s NFC Championship game:
- Packers’ top-four corners in the NFC Championship (by snaps): Damarious Randall, LaDarius Gunter, Micah Hyde, Quinten Rollins
- Packers’ top-four corners in Week 1: Davon House, Rollins, Randall, Gunter (released Tuesday)
Last season the Packers allowed the 31st-most yards and 29th-most touchdowns through the air. House has good size at 6’1″ and 205 pounds but isn’t necessarily an upgrade over Hyde considering he allowed the 21st-most yards per target last season among 128 cornerbacks to be targeted 25-plus times. The Packers used both of their second-round picks on defensive backs, but cornerback Kevin King and hybrid safety Josh Jones played a combined six defensive snaps Sunday.
That’s all bad news against Jones, who has averaged a 6.9-112.8-0.5 line during his last 22 home games. He owns the highest median projection in our Models on both DraftKings and FanDuel and gets a Packers secondary that has allowed the second-most points per game above salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past calendar year.
Doug Baldwin vs. 49ers Secondary
Baldin caught all four of his targets for 63 yards in Week 1, but it was still a somewhat disappointing performance considering the aforementioned mess of a secondary the Packers have. Green Bay pressured Russell Wilson on 39.4 percent of his drop backs, and he averaged a putrid 5.85 average yards per attempt (Y/A). The Seahawks’ offensive line remains an issue, but they should have an easier time with a 49ers front seven that generated the sixth-fewest pressures in the league last season and just six in 26 pass attempts against Cam Newton in Week 1.
As long as Wilson can find time to throw, he’ll have tasty matchups across the board – and especially in the slot. The 49ers allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game (PPG) to slot receivers last season, and even being that high was largely thanks to Tramaine Brock — PFF’s 21st-best cornerback last season and now with Minnesota — and Jimmie Ward (doubtful). K’Waun Williams was a top-eight cornerback in average yards allowed per cover snap from the slot with the Browns from 2014-2015, but he is coming off an ankle injury and Baldwin in Seattle is a different monster. Per our Trends tool, he’s averaged 16.4 DraftKings PPG with a +5.76 Plus/Minus and 20 percent Upside Rating at home since 2014.
Last season Wilson averaged 7.7 Y/A and posted a 15/4 touchdown/interception ratio at home compared to 6.9 Y/A and an 8/8 ratio on the road. Like the defense, the Seahawks offense has historically thrived at home, and Baldwin has been a major reason why. The team’s +12.5 PPG differential at home last season was the highest in the league. The Seahawks will move Baldwin around the formation (he ran 18-of-29 routes from the slot in Week 1) to give him a chance to wreak havoc on a 49ers defense he’s very familiar with:
Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson vs. Bears Secondary
The Bears caused some headaches for Matt Ryan and company last week but now face a better pass-blocking offensive line without linebacker Jerrell Freeman (one of eight players to earn an overall rating of 90.0 or above by PFF last season) and potentially No. 1 cornerback Prince Amukamara (questionable). The Bears allowed +7.5 completion rate and +1.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) differentials on the road last season and now have to deal with a Buccaneers offense that added two significant pieces to the league’s 12th-best offense in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). No wide receiver priced over $7,500 on DraftKings has scored over 17.0 DraftKings points on the Bears since defensive coordinator Vic Fangio took over last season, but an already banged up Bears defense will have to deal with a newly-explosive Buccaneers offense.
First-round tight end O.J. Howard figures to at least split reps with incumbent starter Cameron Brate, but D-Jax is penciled in as the team’s starting receiver across from Evans. Jackson has historically elevated the performances of his quarterbacks in a major way . . .
. . . and his game-breaking speed should be put to good use by Jameis Winston, who has posted the third-highest average target distance since entering the league in 2015. Evans averaged a league-high 23.19 DraftKings PPG during the first half of last season, but an average of 4.1 fewer targets per game (in part due to excessive double and triple teams) led to him fading down the stretch. Jackson’s speed will make it hard for the Bears to simply sit in Cover 6 and focus on Evans, while Winston’s arm gives this offense a chance to attack every inch of the field.
Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks vs. Saints Secondary
Hogan led the Patriots receivers with 73 snaps in Week 1 but gained just five yards on as many targets. Still, he ran 64 percent of his routes from the slot and figures to have an even more prominent role with Danny Amendola (concussion, knee) questionable. Tom Brady didn’t waste much time utilizing Cook’s field-stretching ability, hooking up for a 54-yard bomb as part of a 3-88-0 line in Cook’s Patriots debut. With Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell out, the Patriots could dress as few as three receivers against a Saints defense that allowed the fifth-most DraftKings PPG to wide receivers last season. Speedster Phillip Dorsett could see a healthy amount of snaps.
The Saints drafted Marshon Lattimore with the 11th-overall pick in this year’s draft but largely return the same secondary elsewhere. Theoretical No. 1 cornerback Delvin Breaux has played in six games since the beginning of last season and remains sidelined. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs converted their 18 combined targets into 16 receptions for 250 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, demonstrating the ability for multiple wide receivers to thrive in the same game against the Saints. The Mercedes-Benz Superdome is the Coors Field of NFL DFS, and for once the Patriots have a limited amount of wide receivers capable of soaking up the team’s slate-high 30.75 point implied total. Both Hogan and Cooks had an average target depth over 20 yards in Week 1 and take on a Saints defense that allowed a slate-high eight passes of 20-plus yards last week.
Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Patriots and Saints every week, and study our DFS Contests Dashboard after the slate starts to see how sharp players used the bevy of available receivers.
Potential Fades
Dez Bryant vs. Broncos Secondary
Bryant’s start to the season was never going to be easy with three consecutive games against three of the league’s top-four pass defenses in DVOA. His issues against top-flight cornerbacks (discussed last week) won’t be alleviated with the presence of Aqib Talib out wide and Chris Harris Jr. in the slot; those guys allowed the second- and fourth-fewest amount of yards per cover snap, respectively, among full-time corners last season. Neither Talib nor Harris travel with receivers, but fourth-year former first-round pick Bradley Roby is a No. 1 corner on most teams and allowed a low 80.1 QB Rating in coverage last season (20th-best mark among full-time corners).
Bryant shook Janoris Jenkins at least once or twice last week, and his three consecutive targets inside the five-yard line demonstrated the Cowboys’ desire to get him involved. Still, Bryant will need to get past yet another defense with three very capable corners, and the Broncos have been a top-five unit in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers three seasons running. Bryant currently has the lowest projected ceiling among all wide receivers priced over $6,000 on DraftKings this week.
Sammy Watkins vs. Redskins Secondary
The Josh Norman Experience is off to a hot start in 2017, as he had as many pass deflections (2) as receptions allowed on seven targets last week. Overall, Norman allowed a 42 percent passer rating in coverage, although the Redskins chose to leave him on the left side of the field. Bashaud Breeland took over the right side and was PFF’s second-best corner against the run and 25th-best against the pass last season. Slot corner Kendall Fuller is now two years removed from a torn ACL that ended his college career at Virginia Tech; he earned PFF’s fifth-best grade among all cornerbacks in Week 1.
The Rams moved Watkins all over the formation last week, but the Colts pressed him everywhere he went. Per NFL Next-Gen Stats, Watkins’ average 2.3-yard cushion was the lowest mark of Week 1 by half a yard. The Colts’ respect for Watkins’ deep-ball ability forced them to keep a safety over top in addition to the cornerback covering anything underneath. Watkins caught all five of his passes for 58 yards in Week 1, but he has a steep challenge against a Redskins defense that is all too familiar with coach Sean McVay’s scheme and allowed the eighth-lowest DraftKings Plus/Minus to wide receivers last season.
DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills vs. Chargers Secondary
Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett shadowed Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, respectively, during the Chargers’ Monday night loss to the Broncos. The Broncos’ passing attack was largely held in check, as their top-two receivers combined for an 8-93-0 line on 14 targets. Verrett was particularly effective, allowing just one catch for four yards in 35 cover snaps; Hayward allowed a 5-81-0 line in 36 cover snaps. Considering the body types and skill sets at play, it seems likely Verrett could see a lot of both Stills and (maybe) Jarvis Landry with Hayward taking on Parker.
A solid training camp and stories of Parker morphing into a “Faster Alshon” bode well for his future, but remember: Jay Cutler‘s 2015 ‘breakout’ season with now-head coach Adam Gase as the Bears offensive coordinator consisted of just three games of 300-plus yards and one of three-plus touchdowns. Cutler failed to throw for multiple touchdowns or surpass 255 yards in five starts last season and will have to deal with the Chargers’ pair of top-10 edge rushers in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa in addition to a talented secondary. Overall, the Chargers have allowed 3.6 DraftKings points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months – the third-best mark in Week 2.
Honorable Mentions
- Michael Thomas vs. Patriots Secondary: Thomas has posted the highest Upside Rating at home among all wide receivers since 2014, but Bill Belichick has two outside cornerbacks in Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore that both ranked among the top-20 full-time corners in QB Rating last season.
- Tyreek Hill vs. Eagles Secondary: No. 1 cornerback Ronald Darby is out for 4-6 weeks with a dislocated ankle, so Jalen Mills – who allowed the second-most yards per cover snap among 79 full-time corners last season – will likely see a lot of Hill, who has averaged a 7-77.2-0.4 line on 8.4 targets per game during five starts without Jeremy Maclin since the beginning of last season.
- Antonio Brown vs. Vikings Secondary: PFF’s Scott Barrett notes Brown is the second-most efficient wide receiver by DraftKings points per target against top-20 graded cornerbacks this past decade. Xavier Rhodes has a scary combination of length and athleticism, but Brown’s average of 28.5 DraftKings PPG with a +9.3 Plus/Minus and 79 percent Consistency Rating at home since 2014 speaks loudly. Brown’s projected 13-16 percent ownership is well below his average 18.7 percent mark at home. This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
- Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Lions Secondary: The Giants are optimistic Beckham will play Monday night, and he returned to practice Wednesday. He has the second-most receiving yards, (tied for) the most catches, and the fifth-most receiving touchdowns through a WR’s first three seasons ever. Darius Slay (PFF’s 16th-best cover corner last season) may be talented, but Beckham is transcendent.
- Alshon Jeffery vs. Chiefs Secondary: Marcus Peters didn’t allow a reception in 40 cover snaps last week and sticks to the left side of the field, where Jeffery lined up on over 50 percent of his passes last season and in Week 1.
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- Janoris Jenkins vs. Marvin Jones
- Desmond Trufant vs. Jordy Nelson
- Patrick Peterson vs. T.Y. Hilton
- Jason Verrett/Casey Hayward vs. Kenny Stills/Devante Parker
- Darius Slay vs. Odell Beckham Jr.
