The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
The 10-game main slate begins at 7:05 pm ET. DraftKings and FanDuel offer smaller slates prior to the main slate, but DraftKings is the only site that incorporates the five games before the main slate into one slate starting at 1:05 pm ET. The second game of the Astros-Athletics doubleheader is excluded from the main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Three of the five pitchers who cost more than $10,000 are available in the main slate, and only one priced above $10,000 on FanDuel is main-slate accessible:
Chris Sale hasn’t exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four starts, and he possessed the highest average FanDuel guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership in the three main slates in which he was available (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard). His salary has dropped below $13,000 on DraftKings for the third time since the middle of June (per our Trends tool), and over the last four starts he’s reduced his fly ball allowed rate to 33.9 percent without losing velocity. All of his recent Statcata data are an improvement compared to his yearly numbers.
The current Rays roster has the fourth-highest strikeout rate, fourth-lowest wOBA, and third-highest soft contact rate against lefties this season. Over the second half, the Rays have secured the second-lowest wOBA, and one month ago Sale diced them up for 13 strikeouts in 8.0 scoreless innings. He was also extremely successful against the Yankees before allowing three solo home runs to them last Sunday and lasting only 4.1 innings. It’s unclear if Sale is dealing with an injury, but he’s thrown at least 107 pitches in three of his last four starts.
Sale leads all pitchers with a 9.4 K Prediction, -237 moneyline odds, and an opponent implied run total of 3.1 (per the Vegas Dashboard). Similar marks have been accomplished by pitchers 49 other times and resulted in favorable metrics:
Sale’s K Prediction has exceeded 9.4 just seven times according to our database, and it hasn’t been as high since the 2015 season. In 15 starts with a similar K Prediction, Sale has averaged a +5.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 58.7 percent average GPP ownership.
Rain may hinder Sale’s cash-game appeal, but projected precipitation is currently around 13 percent. Expect Sale to be the highest-owned pitcher in GPPs on all sites despite his recent performance decline.
Jeff Samardzija is facing a White Sox roster with the third-highest strikeout rate, lowest walk rate, fifth-highest ground ball rate, and third-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Fifteen of the last 17 starters to face the White Sox have exceeded salary-based expectations but also compiled a league-high 27 percent DraftKings GPP average ownership.
The White Sox are presently implied to score 4.0 runs, a number they’ve matched or exceeded in eight of their last 17 games. As already noted, pitchers have been feasting on the White Sox, negating any concern of a mediocre implied total. Samardzija has the best recent Statcast data on the slate, limiting hitters to a 168-foot batted ball distance, 86 MPH exit velocity, and 24 percent hard hit rate. Although he’s recorded 37.45 and 29.35 DraftKings points in his last two starts, he still has a positive Recent Batted Ball Luck, indicating that his productivity has eclipsed his performance.
Prior to the explosion, Samardzija missed salary-based expectations by less than two points in four straight starts, and he’s long-been a cash-game only option due to his limited upside and ability to pitch deep into games. The White Sox represent a solid matchup, and Samardzija has been far more productive on the road this season:
His strikeout rate and walk rate away from AT&T Park this season are close to a point better, and his road wOBA is only 0.009 points worse than his home number. Samardzija costs less than $9,000 on FanDuel, and he should continue his cash-game profile tonight.
Pro subscribers can also view how other DFS players approached the main slate via our new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Among the 10 pitchers outside of the main slate, Luis Severino is the most expensive and provides the best recent Statcast data. Aside from a setback against the Red Sox, against whom he redeemed himself last Sunday, Severino hasn’t scored less than 22.15 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 starts:
He costs a season-high $12,700 on DraftKings and $10,200 on FanDuel, but his FanDuel salary is only $800 more than it has been in any of his last nine starts.
Values
Alex Wood costs less than $9,000 on DraftKings for the first time since May 13th, and the salary discount is justified based on his recent form. During the second half, Wood has lasted at least 6.0 innings in seven of the eight outings but averaged a -4.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus and substandard 6.84 SO/9 rate. His average production during that span — 14.79 DraftKings points — is on par with his salary-implied point total tonight at $8,700. The largest detriment capping Wood’s ceiling has been his artificial pitch count, exceeding 90 pitches only five times since initially landing on the disabled list at the end of May. He ranks second on the slate with an 8.7 K Prediction and 3.2 opponent implied run total, and home left-handed starters have been highly owned and extremely consistent against the Rockies since the start of 2016:
Mike Montgomery profiles as the chalk SP2 in the non-main slates. The Brewers have the third-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, and the wind at Wrigley Field is projected to blow 10 MPH from right field. Montgomery doesn’t have an elite SO/9 rate, and he hasn’t tossed more than 90 pitches in his last three starts following a stint as a reliever. Montgomery was bombarded by the Brewers two months earlier at Wrigley and allowed seven runs in 2.1 innings. This iteration of the Brewers accounts for the highest SO/AB rate and second-lowest wOBA in the non-main slate, and Montgomery is equipped with -156 moneyline odds and a 6.7 K Prediction.
Fastballs
Zack Godley: He’s surpassed 13.0 DraftKings points in all eight home starts, and over the last two outings he’s recorded a 53 percent ground ball rate. The Padres are a much-improved offense, but home right-handed starters have continued to provide value against them, averaging a +2.91 DraftKings Plus/Minus since the All-Star break.
Carlos Martinez: He’s one of three pitchers with moneyline odds of at least -200 and an opponent implied total no greater than 3.3 in the main slate. Save for his last outing, Martinez doesn’t generally provide upside worthy of GPP consideration, and in two starts against the Pirates he has averaged 17.85 DraftKings points.
Mark Leiter: Right-handed pitchers have averaged a +4.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating — the highest mark in both categories — against the Nationals since the beginning of July. Even the 13 pitchers who faced a Nationals team implied to score at least 5.0 runs have produced a +3.23 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The top-rated FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Diamondbacks, who lead all teams with a 5.6-team implied run total:
The Diamondbacks account for the four highest-rated stacks, all of which contain Paul Goldschmidt, who has missed the last five games but is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Jhoulys Chacin has unraveled on the road this season, allowing a 0.376 wOBA. He’s also surrendered 12 of his 19 homers to left-handed hitters this season along with an incendiary 0.426 wOBA to lefties on the road. Overall, hitters have averaged a +1.48 Plus/Minus against Chacin at home this season, but lefties and switch hitters have assumed the majority of the production with a +2.64 Plus/Minus. This stack contains three left-handed hitters, and one of the hottest right-handed hitters in baseball. J.D. Martinez leads all hitters on the main slate with a 285-foot batted ball distance, 99 MPH exit velocity, and 62 percent hard hit rate over the past 15 days. The hitters in this stack have averaged a +1.29 Plus/Minus at home this season.
The Giants lead all teams with an 89 DraftKings Team Value Rating, and they are implied to score at least 5.0 runs for the 13th time this season. They also have the highest-rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model:
Stacking four lefties against James Shields seems appropriate based on their success against him. They’ve accounted for 16 of the 22 homers allowed by Shields, and they’ve recorded a +1.53 Plus/Minus (including switch hitters). Teams facing Shields typically have the highest-owned stacks in GPPs, and if the chalk move is to roster Chris Sale then the Giants will offer plenty of cap relief to field a lineup with upside. Every hitter in the stack has a positive wOBA against right-handers over the previous 12 months, and despite being projected to hit eighth Ryder Jones leads hitters in the stack with a 238-foot batted ball distance and 43 percent hard hit rate over the last 15 days.
Batters
Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton, and Justin Upton are all facing left-handed starters, and all three lead hitters in the main slate in wOBA, ISO, and slugging percentage over the past 12 months. They have been elite investments against lefties this season:
Stanton is one of 16 hitters whose DraftKings salary has reached at least $5,700 this year, and despite being a poor investment at that salary in 10 games against righties he’s provided elite production in three starts against lefties with 23, 43, and 30 DraftKings points. Max Fried was limited to 63 pitches in his first start following three relief appearances, but even if he doesn’t receive an extended leash Stanton’s upside isn’t diminished because the Braves bullpen has been quite generous to right-handed hitters all season. Since the All-Star break, Braves relievers have allowed a 1.5 HR/9 rate (the seventh-highest mark and slightly lower than Fried’s) and 38.8 percent fly ball rate (good for the eighth-highest mark) to righties.
Arenado is facing a lefty in Wood who has struggled recently, but if you’re going to fade Wood based on projected high ownership Arenado offers plenty of potential due to Wood’s poor recent form. Wood has allowed five homers in his last two outings and a 47 percent hard hit rate his last time out. Arenado hasn’t been as prolific against lefties away from Coors Field, but he’s averaged a +2.17 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 47.4 percent Consistency Rating, a .523 wOBA, and a 57.4 percent fly ball rate against lefties on the road this season.
Upton has the eighth-highest FanDuel Plus/Minus in games against left-handed starters this season (minimum 20 games). However, his salary has been no higher than $3,500 since the start of September, during which the Angels have already faced three lefties. Upton is the cheapest of the three sluggers on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s provided a +5.60 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 56.4 percent Consistency Rating this season against lefties on FanDuel, where he’ll be as close to a must-play as possible.
Mike Trout has not been blanked against a left-handed starter in his last 37 games, and he’s averaged a +2.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus against southpaws this season. While the other sluggers may have higher upside, Trout has averaged higher GPP ownership and DraftKings Consistency Rating against lefties this season. Finding a way to stack Upton and Trout could net a unique lineup on a slate where Sale’s salary may reduce ownership for expensive hitters. And with Stanton priced less than Trout on FanDuel, expect Trout to have low ownership.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
