This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze the relevant players from Thursday Night Football. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis by looking at the dynamics of expected game flow, pace, Vegas lines, and advanced analytics.
New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots have been top-12 in offensive scoring and play volume since 2001 and 2004, respectively. Over the last decade, the Pats have been top-six in points per drive each year; they’ve been top-six in neutral pace (Football Outsiders) in every year but one. In the 17-year Belichick era, the Pats have been top-12 in pass attempts and rush attempts in 76.5 and 64.7 percent of seasons.
Under Andy Reid in Kansas City, the Chiefs have played at a bottom-five pace in three of four years and have yet to rank higher than 20th in pass attempts. The Chiefs have been in the top half of the league in rushing attempts each of the last four years.
Thursday Night Football will feature the fourth-highest over/under of the week (48.5) and an 8.5-point spread in favor of the Patriots at home (per our Vegas Dashboard). New England covered the spread at the highest rate of any team last season at 13-3 ATS and they are likely to do so again, though betting the under is usually a wise move on Thursday. The Patriots have the highest implied total of the week (28.5), but one of the biggest question marks for the Patriots is who will step up for Julian Edelman in the slot? Per our Patriots team preview, Brady has significant splits with and without Edelman.
On the surface, Chris Hogan looks like the primary beneficiary from his absence, but the Patriots have easily the most efficient and versatile backfield in the league. Any combination of Rex Burkhead, James White, and Dion Lewis could easily eat into Edelman’s former workload. That said, it’s a tough matchup for those guys: The Chiefs finished fourth in pass DVOA to running backs in 2016.
The Tom Brady–Rob Gronkowski stack will be chalky. Brady has a fantasy points correlation value of 0.41 with Gronk and a 0.44 ownership correlation (per our NFL Correlations page). One way to leverage Kansas City and differentiate your lineup at the same time is to roll it back with Kareem Hunt on the other side of the ball. Here are the correlation values for actual fantasy points versus the ownership values for these positions:
The ownership correlation between Brady, Gronkowski, and Hunt will be low, despite the fact that they have very correlated outcomes. If you want to stack Brady with Gronk, do it with our Lineup Builder.
Players from the Thursday game can often go over-owned, but game stacks are probably underutilized in general, so if you want to pivot away from Gronk, here is another way you could go:
This could be a decent spot to stack Brady with two of his high-ceiling wide receivers, and rolling it back with Travis Kelce makes sense. Correlations provide a huge edge in GPPs, as they provide free upside, and there are many secrets yet to be found within the FantasyLabs Tools.
Tom Brady, QB
Losing Edelman is not ideal for Brady to hit his ceiling this week and beyond; others will have to step up. That said, in home games with comparable Vegas data, Brady has historically provided a +7.12 Plus/Minus with an 83.3 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Mike Gillislee, RB
Gillislee is the frontrunner to play the Blount role. Last year he was uber-efficient running the ball, finishing 25th with 1.2 yards after contact per touch and ninth with 0.44 fantasy points per opportunity. He’s not a prolific receiver, so regardless of his touchdown upside he’s risky in cash games.
James White, RB
White may not see a huge difference in targets with Edelman’s injury. He’s going to produce no matter who else is playing — his splits with Lewis weren’t horrifying last year — but he will likely see fewer snaps with Burkhead around.
Rex Burkhead, RB
Burkhead is probably the most complete back on this team. Like Gillislee, he has good size (5’10” and 214 lbs). Like White, he has good receiving skills (75.6 percent career catch rate). And finally, like Lewis, he has good agility (6.85-second three cone). That said, his workload is unpredictable in Week 1, and this entire backfield carries conceivable upside. Pick your poison.
Brandin Cooks, WR
Cooks’ blazing speed (4.33-second 40) makes him a strong down-field threat, and he is likely to get some of the slot snaps that would have gone to Edelman. Cooks could struggle playing outdoors at Gillette Stadium, but he’s a high-ceiling play best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) if he avoids CB Marcus Peters in coverage playing on the left side.
Chris Hogan, WR
Leading the league with 11.7 yards per target and finishing third with 2.24 fantasy points per target last season, Hogan has the potential for a big game at any time.
Rob Gronkowski, TE
Even though Gronk has missed 24 games in his seven-year career, he still leads the league over that time with 69 total touchdowns. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last year, but Gronk is always in play when healthy.
Alex Smith, QB
Smith has thrown for three-plus touchdowns or 300-plus yards in 4.9 percent of his 61 starts with the Chiefs. However, he’s posted an 87 percent Consistency Rating as a road dog at a low ownership rate of 0.9 percent. This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Smith should be low-owned yet again, but that’s likely warranted given that he carries little upside in daily fantasy.
Kareem Hunt, RB
He will likely see negative game script in Week 1, but as a senior at Toledo he impressed as a receiver, submitting a 41-403-1 stat line after going 32-152-0 in his first three years combined. He will see volume and is probably a better DraftKings play given the PPR scoring even with a subpar eight percent Bargain Rating.
Tyreek Hill, WR
The NFL’s fastest player (23.24 MPH, Next Gen Stats), Hill scored nine touchdowns on 85 offensive touches and added three additional scores as a return man. No receiver had more fantasy points per snap last year than Tyreek’s 0.48. That said, Belichick has an unparalleled ability to take out a team’s most dangerous weapon.
Travis Kelce, TE
Kelce led all tight ends in yards (1,125) and was second in receptions (85) in 2016. His seven targets inside the 10-yard line was disappointing, but the departure of Jeremy Maclin could enhance Kelce’s role. He’s averaged 8.8 targets and 90.6 receiving yards per game in his five contests without Maclin over the past two seasons.
Good luck, and be sure to read our positional breakdowns!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned, as well as keep you up to date with our NFL Week 1 Injury Dashboard. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NFL News feed:
