At long last Week 1 is finally here. Plenty has changed from last season, as nine teams will start a different quarterback than they did this time last year. In addition to personnel changes, the league’s first week is headlined by suspensions (or lack thereof), hurricanes, and the general excitement that a new season brings. Let’s break down the notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant vs. Browns Secondary
The Browns have played 14 games without the services of Joe Haden since 2015, so they shouldn’t be at a complete loss without their former No. 1 cornerback. Still, they failed to bring in any notable upgrades during the offseason and will rely on Jamar Taylor, Jason McCourty, and Briean Boddy-Calhoun, all of whom ranked outside of the top-70 cornerbacks in yards per cover snap last season (PFF). There could be a transition phase with new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who called the second-most blitz plays and used zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in Los Angeles last season; the Browns last year ranked 17th and 16th in those categories, respectively.
The Browns’ best chance to slow down the Steelers’ explosive passing attack is for Ben Roethlisberger‘s infamous home/away splits to kick in. They’ve historically had a negative impact on Brown, but Roethlisberger has been competent on the road early in the season, throwing for over 300 yards and a combined four touchdowns in his last two season-openers. Those productive Week 1 games came without the services of Le’Veon Bell – but also the 6’4″ Bryant, who has been Roethlisberger’s regular season road-game whisperer since 2014:
Per PFF’s Scott Barrett, Bryant is the most height-sensitive wide receiver over the last decade, averaging an absurd 2.55 DraftKings points per target when facing a corner at least four inches shorter than him. That mark would’ve led the NFL among all receivers with 50-plus targets last season, and he should maintain this advantage throughout the game against all three of the Browns’ 5’11” cornerbacks. Bryant’s five to eight percent projected ownership on DraftKings places him alongside the likes of Marvin Jones and Kenny Britt. This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Brown has averaged a 6.8-103.7-0.64 line in 11 career games against the Browns. The slate’s highest-priced receiver has also historically benefited from Bryant’s field-stretching presence, averaging an additional 2.8 receptions, 20 yards, and 4.1 DraftKings PPG with Bryant in the lineup since 2014. Safeties Ed Reynolds (PFF’s fourth-worst qualified cover safety) and rookie Jabrill Peppers (allowed 9.3 yards per cover snap in college) aren’t an ideal backbone for a defense facing the slate’s third-highest implied total.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. D.J. Hayden and Quandre Diggs
The Lions allowed a league-high 16.1 DraftKings PPG out of the slot last season with Diggs, and their solution was to add Hayden, who was responsible for the 12th-most yards per cover snap in the slot with the Raiders. Both corners ranked outside of PFF’s top-90 defensive backs in coverage, and the Lions’ best cornerback, Darius Slay, spent only four percent of his snaps in the slot in 2016. The corners shouldn’t expect much help from a front seven that generated the second-fewest pressures in the league last season.
Nothing the Cardinals have done this offseason suggests Fitzgerald’s 5.44 targets out of the slot per game are going anywhere. He also has a tasty matchup whenever the Cardinals drive within striking distance. Only Jordy Nelson had more targets inside the 10-yard line than Fitzgerald last season, and he gets a Lions defense that allowed the third-highest percentage of red zone touchdowns in 2016. Fitzgerald’s +5.07 DraftKings Projected Plus/Minus is tied for the fifth-highest mark in Week 1.
Other Positive Matchups
Terrelle Pryor vs. Ronald Darby
The Eagles allowed the second-most DraftKings PPG to outside receivers last season, and Darby should fit right in considering his 1.63 yards allowed per cover snap mark was tied for the sixth-highest among all corners to play at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps. While Darby was better as a rookie and is a former second-round pick with twitchy (40-inch vertical) athleticism (4.38 40 time), Pryor is just as fast and significantly bigger at 6’5″ and 230 pounds. He caught eight of his nine catchable passes thrown 20 yards downfield last season and has a potentially dynamic new marriage with Kirk Cousins, who ranked fourth and sixth among all quarterbacks in QB Rating and completion rate on deep passes in 2016. Pryor is currently the highest-rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Model.
Julio Jones vs. Bears Secondary
After ranking 27th in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) to No. 1 receivers last season, the Bears attempted to solve their cornerback woes with Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper. The former was in a walking boot as recently as last Wednesday, while the latter was PFF’s eighth-worst cornerback among 110 qualified players last season. The duo will be tasked with stopping Jones, who has averaged a league-high 20.88 DraftKings PPG and solid 58 percent Consistency Rating on the road since 2014 (per our Trends tool); Jones is fully healthy following an offseason foot surgery. New offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian may not be in Kyle Shanahan’s league, but he has already made getting the league’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game more red zone touches an emphasis.
Potential Fades
Dez Bryant vs. Giants Secondary
Janoris Jenkins‘ risk-taking style of play has earned him 13 interceptions throughout his career, but New York triggered the best version of him yet. Overall, Jenkins ranked among the top-10 cornerbacks in both yards per cover snap and cover snaps per reception last season. The Giants also return 6’2″ Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie – a former track star and one of the best slot corners in the league – along with the former No. 10 overall pick Eli Apple. Bryant doesn’t often have to contend with three corners that can match up with him physically, and his track record as the most cornerback-sensitive wide receiver in point differential between top- and bottom-25 cornerbacks over the past three seasons is troubling.
It’s not like Bryant hasn’t burned Jenkins before, and he and Dak Prescott have hooked up for 10 touchdowns over their last 11 full games. Still, he finds himself in a very tough matchup against a team he posted a combined 2-18-0 line on 14 targets last season. Bryant tied with Kelvin Benjamin for the least amount of average separation in 2016 (Next Gen Stats). He will likely need to score a touchdown to warrant the eighth-highest salary at his position considering he ranks 35th among all wide receivers in yardage market share over the past 12 months.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jaguars Secondary
Jalen Ramsey, the No. 4 pick in the 2016 draft, limited Hopkins to a 13-135-0 line on 30 targets last season. Ramsey shadowed Hopkins all over the field, traveling into the slot at times, and mostly making the types of plays you’d expect from a No. 4 overall pick:
The decision to shadow Nuk might not be necessary this season, as the Jaguars signed former Texans cornerback A.J. Bouye, PFF’s second-highest graded cornerback in 2016. Bouye spent 82 percent of his snaps at left corner last season, and he won’t have much to worry about elsewhere on the field this week considering Will Fuller is out with a broken collarbone and Jaelen Strong is suspended. Nickel cornerback Aaron Colvin is far from a pushover as well, as his 0.78 yards allowed per cover snap from the slot was the fifth-best mark in the league last season.
The league’s newest #paid receiver enters Week 1 having gained over 75 yards in just three of his last 19 games (including playoffs). A ride down #HoustonStrong narrative street is always a possibility with a player of Hopkins’ talent (sixth-most receiving yards in first three seasons of a career since 1990), but he’ll need to get it done against two of the league’s best corners on a Texans offense lacking their starting left tackle and with a quarterback who has thrown as many NFL touchdowns as you and I have.
Tough Times
Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders vs. Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward
All parties involved played at least 35 percent of their snaps on both the left and right side of formations last season, and there’s a chance both receivers are shadowed. It’s trouble either way, as both Hayward and Verrett present plenty of problems in addition to a front seven that generated pressure at a top-10 rate last season. Hayward allowed the third-lowest QB rating among all corners to play at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps in 2016, and his seven interceptions more than made up for the one touchdown he allowed. Verrett hasn’t taken many live reps since tearing his ACL in Week 4 of last season, but he posted the highest percentage of coverage snaps with a positive grade from 2014-2015. Thomas and Sanders proved gaining 1,000 yards with a former seventh-round pick from Northwestern at quarterback is possible, although they’ve both failed to score a touchdown or surpass 80 yards in their last four games against the Chargers.
Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Broncos and Chargers every week, and study our DFS Contests Dashboard after the slate starts to see how sharp players used the Broncos receivers.
Michael Thomas vs. Xavier Rhodes
The Vikings allowed the fourth-fewest DraftKings PPG to outside receivers last season, and Rhodes was a big reason why. He allowed a season-long 36-429-2 line and passer rating of 47 on 75 targets last season, presenting enough size (6’1″ and 210 pounds) and speed to lock up the likes of Odell Beckham Jr. (3-23-0) and Allen Robinson (1-17-0). Thomas will be the secondary’s focal point without the presence of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead.
Honorable Mentions
- Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb vs. Legion of Boom: Rodgers has targeted top-25 graded cornerbacks less than any other quarterback over the past decade (PFF). In four games against the Seahawks since 2014, Rodgers has targeted Nelson, Adams, and Cobb an average of 9.7, 4.7, and 8.3 targets, respectively, often sacrificing Adams to Richard Sherman.
- Stefon Diggs vs. Saints Secondary: Diggs in Weeks 1-4 (outside receiver): 10.9 yards per target; in Weeks 7-16 (slot): 6.8 YPT. He’s back at outside receiver, and while he converted most of his production in Weeks 1-4 against the likes of Tennessee, Green Bay, and Carolina — the Saints allowed the fifth-most DraftKings PPG to outside receivers last season.
- Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams vs. Chris Harris Jr./Aqib Talib: The Broncos allowed 21.4 DraftKings PPG to wide receivers last season. The next-closest team allowed 28.9.
- Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess vs. 49ers Secondary: No 49ers cornerback weighs over 190 pounds, while Benjamin stands 6’5″ and 245 pounds and Funchess at 6’4″ and 225 pounds. These two played the overwhelming majority of Panthers’ preseason snaps in 2-WR sets and get a 49ers secondary that could be without their best cornerback in Jimmie Ward (knee, questionable).
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- Dez Bryant vs. Janoris Jenkins
- Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders vs. Casey Hayward/Jason Verrett
- Michael Thomas vs. Xavier Rhodes
- Alshon Jeffery/Torrey Smith vs. Josh Norman/Bashaud Breeland
- Golden Tate vs. Patrick Peterson
