NBA

NBA DFS 1/14/16 Slate Breakdown

Stars, scrubs, fries with gravy (no, really, that’s what the English prefer), and a potential Larry O’Brien preview all fill the card for tonight’s six-game slate. Sit back and enjoy.

All Day

Toronto Raptors (-4) at Orlando Magic

Implied Total: 98.8 – 94.8, O/U: 193.5

I think there’s actual merit in fading both this game and Victor Oladipo all together. Hear me out.

At the time of this writing, this particular total had opened at 195.5 and was vehemently bet down to 192.5 (or 0.5 points away from being the lowest total in tonight’s slate). While most who have any amount of exposure to this game will assuredly pay for Oladipo, there’s no denying his decreased value when Elfrid Payton starts. Just look at his peripherals off the bench compared to his last four without Payton: 28.6/37.5 minutes, 12.4/18.8 points, 30.4/36.6 DraftKings points, and 3.5/5.0 attempts from beyond the arc. His usage is down as a starter (from 24.1% off the bench to 21.6%), but only because he’s been asked to fire at will in order to ignite their offense as the sixth man. With the Magic having an implied total of only 94.3 points, count me in as someone who’s loading up on the All Day slate without Oladipo.

Unless he starts, in which case I’m an idiot.

MAIN

Chicago Bulls (-8.5) at Philadelphia 76ers

Implied Total: 106.3 – 97.8, O/U: 204

Most lineups have benefitted from the Bulls offense in their recent red-hot surge. In their last 12 games, for instance, Chicago has yet to score fewer than 100 points, averaging 107.1 points per 100 possessions. On that same note, opposing offenses have pummeled them for an average of 113.3 points in their last three. Take two nights ago, for example — Bobby Portis was pulled in the second quarter due to his pick-and-roll defense and was kept on the bench for the remainder of the game. The absence of Pau Gasol leaves trickle-down opportunity for someone, but that arrow currently points towards Tony Snell (who scored 17.75 DraftKings points in 26 minutes against the Bucks). Nikola Mirotic is also a constant as he’s averaged 33.5 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes over the last seven games. It only bodes well that the Sixers have allowed +1.3 points above expectations to opposing forwards.

Jimmy Butler is an obvious play no matter Derrick Rose’s status (currently questionable), but ownership should play no part in your decision if Rose were to sit; Butler has seen an increased usage of 29.4% (up from 24%) in five games without Rose this season, attempting 4.8 more field goals and scoring 11.1 more DraftKings points in that span.

Ish Smith is now averaging 16.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 30.4 minutes in nine games with Philadelphia. He’s scored at least 42 DraftKings points in five of those nine performances, recording 27.0/17.0/21.3/23.8 in all others. Although his salary now implies Smith will score at least 30.91 points, opportunity isn’t the issue as he’s logged fewer than 31 minutes on only three occasions (not-so-coincidently, his three lowest scoring totals). It’s much easier to roster him with a 91% Bargain Rating at FanDuel (though it should be a TedTalk on its own whether or not $7,000 is enough to keep him out of lineups at DraftKings).

Jahlil Okafor has scored at least 19 points and six boards in his last three games as a starter while Nerlens Noel has reluctantly moved back to forward. The Sixers offense has flourish when those two have shared the court with Smith – the three have scored 104.7 points per 100 possessions together – but Noel remains best used in the paint where he’s averaged 2.1 more DraftKings points. Okafor, on the other hand, will comfortably oppose a position in which the Bulls have allowed +1.6 points above expectations.

Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

Implied Total: 97 – 95.5, O/U: 192.5

Jeff Green was benched for the second half in their last game as he, in typical Jeff Green fashion, contributed next to nothing (as an aside that has zero to do with our models, you can tell just by watching Green that he’s checked out entirely from the style of basketball that this particular Memphis team plays). Instead, Tony Allen notched another night with 30-plus minutes and has now scored at least 30 DraftKings points in three consecutive games. The Pistons have limited small forwards to -1.4 points below expectations, but Allen is arguably the best option of any small forward priced below $7,000. Any shakeups in their lineup would also leave room for Zach Randolph to bounce-back, as he scored “only” 20.25 DraftKings points against the Rockets (down from his recent trend of 37.7 in the five games prior).

Tonight makes for the fifth consecutive game in which Andre Drummond’s salary has decreased, but that doesn’t mean he’s cash-ready; his projected floor of 17.6 points is -0.8 points fewer than that of Marc Gasol’s. Considering the Pistons have allowed an abysmal +2.9 points above expectations to opposing centers, it makes more sense to pay $1,300 less for Gasol.

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs (-6)

Implied Total: 101 – 95, O/U: 196

It’s no secret that LaMarcus Aldridge favors the mid-range jumper. In fact, prior to this season, 52.9% of the 10,565 field goals he’s attempted throughout his career came from mid-range (per NBA.com Stats). And of those 5,599 attempts from mid-range, Aldridge has averaged a field goal percentage of 41.7% in the last nine seasons. Fast forward to this year when up until two games ago, he was 94-of-245 from mid-range, shooting 38.4% from his favorite distance.

PIC1

In his last two, however, Aldridge is 12-of-16 from mid-range. He’s averaged 23.5 points over that span (42.5 DraftKings points), simultaneously collecting double-digit rebounds in both outings. More to the point is that absolutely nothing has changed. He wasn’t making shots prior to their game against the Nets, and now suddenly he’s returned to form.

PIC2

The Cavaliers have limited opposing power forwards to -1.1 points below expectations, but I wouldn’t allow that to hinder exposure towards Aldridge (who has a Bargain Rating of 73% at DraftKings). More worrisome is that the Cavs played Kevin Love at center for the entirety of their overtime victory against the Mavericks, which would essentially force LeBron to defend Aldridge (if they choose to go that route again). And while we’re here, it should also be noted that James averaged 53.8 DraftKings points in two games against the Spurs during Kawhi Leonard’s rookie and sophomore campaigns, but has since averaged 42.4 in four regular season contests. It would not be shocking to see more of the same as opponents have shot -6.4% lower than their average field goal percentage when defended by Leonard.

Tristan Thompson remains dirt-cheap at FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 91%, but has struggled mightily in recent weeks. It took late into the fourth quarter for him to notch 10 points and 10 rebounds against Philadelphia, which was a breath of fresh air considering his past two lines of 6-7 and 12-3. Though he’ll start for Cleveland, even his Projected Plus/Minus of +6.7 might not be enough to warrant consideration in cash.

Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz (-2.5)

Implied Total: 101.5 – 99, O/U: 200.5

DERRICK FAVORS MISSED SHOOT-AROUND AND REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FOR TONIGHT.

(Sorry, I was just trying to get ahead of the news for the day…)

More notable is the status of Chris Johnson, as Utah’s rotation would likely tighten if both he and Favors were to sit. Trey Lyles logged 15 minutes in the second half with Johnson unavailable, three more than Trevor Booker. If Favors were to miraculously play, it’s a tremendous spot (barring any announced limitations that we would discuss in the News page prior to tip-off) as the Jazz will be playing at a pace +8.7 possessions faster than their norm. Either way, DeMarcus Cousins leads his position with nine Pro Trends and makes for arguably the best overall play in tonight’s slate.

Omri Casspi logged 29 minutes in his first game back for the Kings last night. Although he could be limited in the second leg of a back-to-back, his Bargain Rating of 96% at FanDuel implies he need only score 21.85 points to return value (as opposed to DraftKings where he’s implied to score 28.15).

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-17)

Implied Total: 116.5 – 99.5, O/U: 216

The Lakers closed out their latest win over the Pelicans with a smaller lineup of Jordan Clarkson-Lou Williams-Anthony Brown-Larry Nance-Julius Randle in the final minutes. Though Nance has exceeded his expectations by an average of +4.40 points in his last 10, he scored only 21.75 points (on a line of 9-7) in his most recent bout against Warriors. Except this time, Draymond Green isn’t active. It makes sense to have exposure towards either Nance or Randle (despite his projected floor of 8.0) as Brandon Bass is currently doubtful to play.

Considering Lou Williams’ price has risen for the third consecutive game, there’s an argument to be had overpaying for him. Sure, he’s averaged over 28 minutes with or without Bryant in the lineup, but in 30 games with Kobe, his usage has been 21% — Williams averaged a usage of 28.3% in the eight games Bryant has sat. His Bargain Rating of 96% at FanDuel makes him easily accessible across sites, but his implied total of 28.61 at DraftKings might be worth avoiding if Bryant were to play. Note Williams scored 15 DraftKings points in his last game versus the Warriors.

Marreese Speights has logged five minutes in back-to-back games for no apparent reason. Instead, the Warriors have continued to lean on Andrew Bogut, who has averaged 25.1 minutes in his last three. Los Angeles has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 allowed to centers, but our models show Bogut with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.3. Joakim Noah, for example, costs only $400 more and has a projected floor 2.8 points higher.

Since being fitted for a shin guard, Stephen Curry has averaged 56.62 DraftKings points. That average alone would be enough to exceed his implied total by 9.1 points. If not paying for DeMarcus Cousins, there’s no better way to spend $10,000, as Curry’s usage of 32.4% rises to 37.3% without Green on the floor. It helps that the Lakers have allowed +2.9 points above salary-based expectations at the point.

Good luck tonight.

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No related posts.

Stars, scrubs, fries with gravy (no, really, that’s what the English prefer), and a potential Larry O’Brien preview all fill the card for tonight’s six-game slate. Sit back and enjoy.

All Day

Toronto Raptors (-4) at Orlando Magic

Implied Total: 98.8 – 94.8, O/U: 193.5

I think there’s actual merit in fading both this game and Victor Oladipo all together. Hear me out.

At the time of this writing, this particular total had opened at 195.5 and was vehemently bet down to 192.5 (or 0.5 points away from being the lowest total in tonight’s slate). While most who have any amount of exposure to this game will assuredly pay for Oladipo, there’s no denying his decreased value when Elfrid Payton starts. Just look at his peripherals off the bench compared to his last four without Payton: 28.6/37.5 minutes, 12.4/18.8 points, 30.4/36.6 DraftKings points, and 3.5/5.0 attempts from beyond the arc. His usage is down as a starter (from 24.1% off the bench to 21.6%), but only because he’s been asked to fire at will in order to ignite their offense as the sixth man. With the Magic having an implied total of only 94.3 points, count me in as someone who’s loading up on the All Day slate without Oladipo.

Unless he starts, in which case I’m an idiot.

MAIN

Chicago Bulls (-8.5) at Philadelphia 76ers

Implied Total: 106.3 – 97.8, O/U: 204

Most lineups have benefitted from the Bulls offense in their recent red-hot surge. In their last 12 games, for instance, Chicago has yet to score fewer than 100 points, averaging 107.1 points per 100 possessions. On that same note, opposing offenses have pummeled them for an average of 113.3 points in their last three. Take two nights ago, for example — Bobby Portis was pulled in the second quarter due to his pick-and-roll defense and was kept on the bench for the remainder of the game. The absence of Pau Gasol leaves trickle-down opportunity for someone, but that arrow currently points towards Tony Snell (who scored 17.75 DraftKings points in 26 minutes against the Bucks). Nikola Mirotic is also a constant as he’s averaged 33.5 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes over the last seven games. It only bodes well that the Sixers have allowed +1.3 points above expectations to opposing forwards.

Jimmy Butler is an obvious play no matter Derrick Rose’s status (currently questionable), but ownership should play no part in your decision if Rose were to sit; Butler has seen an increased usage of 29.4% (up from 24%) in five games without Rose this season, attempting 4.8 more field goals and scoring 11.1 more DraftKings points in that span.

Ish Smith is now averaging 16.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 30.4 minutes in nine games with Philadelphia. He’s scored at least 42 DraftKings points in five of those nine performances, recording 27.0/17.0/21.3/23.8 in all others. Although his salary now implies Smith will score at least 30.91 points, opportunity isn’t the issue as he’s logged fewer than 31 minutes on only three occasions (not-so-coincidently, his three lowest scoring totals). It’s much easier to roster him with a 91% Bargain Rating at FanDuel (though it should be a TedTalk on its own whether or not $7,000 is enough to keep him out of lineups at DraftKings).

Jahlil Okafor has scored at least 19 points and six boards in his last three games as a starter while Nerlens Noel has reluctantly moved back to forward. The Sixers offense has flourish when those two have shared the court with Smith – the three have scored 104.7 points per 100 possessions together – but Noel remains best used in the paint where he’s averaged 2.1 more DraftKings points. Okafor, on the other hand, will comfortably oppose a position in which the Bulls have allowed +1.6 points above expectations.

Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

Implied Total: 97 – 95.5, O/U: 192.5

Jeff Green was benched for the second half in their last game as he, in typical Jeff Green fashion, contributed next to nothing (as an aside that has zero to do with our models, you can tell just by watching Green that he’s checked out entirely from the style of basketball that this particular Memphis team plays). Instead, Tony Allen notched another night with 30-plus minutes and has now scored at least 30 DraftKings points in three consecutive games. The Pistons have limited small forwards to -1.4 points below expectations, but Allen is arguably the best option of any small forward priced below $7,000. Any shakeups in their lineup would also leave room for Zach Randolph to bounce-back, as he scored “only” 20.25 DraftKings points against the Rockets (down from his recent trend of 37.7 in the five games prior).

Tonight makes for the fifth consecutive game in which Andre Drummond’s salary has decreased, but that doesn’t mean he’s cash-ready; his projected floor of 17.6 points is -0.8 points fewer than that of Marc Gasol’s. Considering the Pistons have allowed an abysmal +2.9 points above expectations to opposing centers, it makes more sense to pay $1,300 less for Gasol.

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs (-6)

Implied Total: 101 – 95, O/U: 196

It’s no secret that LaMarcus Aldridge favors the mid-range jumper. In fact, prior to this season, 52.9% of the 10,565 field goals he’s attempted throughout his career came from mid-range (per NBA.com Stats). And of those 5,599 attempts from mid-range, Aldridge has averaged a field goal percentage of 41.7% in the last nine seasons. Fast forward to this year when up until two games ago, he was 94-of-245 from mid-range, shooting 38.4% from his favorite distance.

PIC1

In his last two, however, Aldridge is 12-of-16 from mid-range. He’s averaged 23.5 points over that span (42.5 DraftKings points), simultaneously collecting double-digit rebounds in both outings. More to the point is that absolutely nothing has changed. He wasn’t making shots prior to their game against the Nets, and now suddenly he’s returned to form.

PIC2

The Cavaliers have limited opposing power forwards to -1.1 points below expectations, but I wouldn’t allow that to hinder exposure towards Aldridge (who has a Bargain Rating of 73% at DraftKings). More worrisome is that the Cavs played Kevin Love at center for the entirety of their overtime victory against the Mavericks, which would essentially force LeBron to defend Aldridge (if they choose to go that route again). And while we’re here, it should also be noted that James averaged 53.8 DraftKings points in two games against the Spurs during Kawhi Leonard’s rookie and sophomore campaigns, but has since averaged 42.4 in four regular season contests. It would not be shocking to see more of the same as opponents have shot -6.4% lower than their average field goal percentage when defended by Leonard.

Tristan Thompson remains dirt-cheap at FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 91%, but has struggled mightily in recent weeks. It took late into the fourth quarter for him to notch 10 points and 10 rebounds against Philadelphia, which was a breath of fresh air considering his past two lines of 6-7 and 12-3. Though he’ll start for Cleveland, even his Projected Plus/Minus of +6.7 might not be enough to warrant consideration in cash.

Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz (-2.5)

Implied Total: 101.5 – 99, O/U: 200.5

DERRICK FAVORS MISSED SHOOT-AROUND AND REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FOR TONIGHT.

(Sorry, I was just trying to get ahead of the news for the day…)

More notable is the status of Chris Johnson, as Utah’s rotation would likely tighten if both he and Favors were to sit. Trey Lyles logged 15 minutes in the second half with Johnson unavailable, three more than Trevor Booker. If Favors were to miraculously play, it’s a tremendous spot (barring any announced limitations that we would discuss in the News page prior to tip-off) as the Jazz will be playing at a pace +8.7 possessions faster than their norm. Either way, DeMarcus Cousins leads his position with nine Pro Trends and makes for arguably the best overall play in tonight’s slate.

Omri Casspi logged 29 minutes in his first game back for the Kings last night. Although he could be limited in the second leg of a back-to-back, his Bargain Rating of 96% at FanDuel implies he need only score 21.85 points to return value (as opposed to DraftKings where he’s implied to score 28.15).

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-17)

Implied Total: 116.5 – 99.5, O/U: 216

The Lakers closed out their latest win over the Pelicans with a smaller lineup of Jordan Clarkson-Lou Williams-Anthony Brown-Larry Nance-Julius Randle in the final minutes. Though Nance has exceeded his expectations by an average of +4.40 points in his last 10, he scored only 21.75 points (on a line of 9-7) in his most recent bout against Warriors. Except this time, Draymond Green isn’t active. It makes sense to have exposure towards either Nance or Randle (despite his projected floor of 8.0) as Brandon Bass is currently doubtful to play.

Considering Lou Williams’ price has risen for the third consecutive game, there’s an argument to be had overpaying for him. Sure, he’s averaged over 28 minutes with or without Bryant in the lineup, but in 30 games with Kobe, his usage has been 21% — Williams averaged a usage of 28.3% in the eight games Bryant has sat. His Bargain Rating of 96% at FanDuel makes him easily accessible across sites, but his implied total of 28.61 at DraftKings might be worth avoiding if Bryant were to play. Note Williams scored 15 DraftKings points in his last game versus the Warriors.

Marreese Speights has logged five minutes in back-to-back games for no apparent reason. Instead, the Warriors have continued to lean on Andrew Bogut, who has averaged 25.1 minutes in his last three. Los Angeles has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 allowed to centers, but our models show Bogut with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.3. Joakim Noah, for example, costs only $400 more and has a projected floor 2.8 points higher.

Since being fitted for a shin guard, Stephen Curry has averaged 56.62 DraftKings points. That average alone would be enough to exceed his implied total by 9.1 points. If not paying for DeMarcus Cousins, there’s no better way to spend $10,000, as Curry’s usage of 32.4% rises to 37.3% without Green on the floor. It helps that the Lakers have allowed +2.9 points above salary-based expectations at the point.

Good luck tonight.

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